Trade Time

The trade deadline is approaching and for the first time in years the Orioles are going to be buyers! (They better be or else I’ll have to intervene)

I was actually just rereading moneyball and there’s a part where Billy Beane talks about how every season you have two teams, the one before the trade deadline and the one after (or something like that) and while I don’t expect the Orioles to completely reinvent their roster I am hoping that the Orioles make a semi aggressive trade for an impact starter that take us from a fun wild card team to a serious contender. 

Before I jump into what teams could potentially be seller and what pitchers we should pursue here are a couple of things that I am considering: 

Who do we really want?

I am really only interested in trading for a pitcher who will come in and immediately be one of our best starters. As I mentioned in a previous post right now, despite Wells and Bradish having better years I think that Gibson is our game one of the playoffs starter and I think if we are at all serious about contending this year we need to upgrade that spot. So for me when it comes to starting pitchers on the market I want a veteran who we can feel good about putting in the mound against another team’s ace. The numbers don’t have to be incredible this year, I am more concerned with pursuing someone with a track record of success (I’m thinking of guys like Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito). I am not interested in trading for someone who at best will be our 4th best starter (Cookie Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard types) 

Who is going to be available?

It could be difficult to find the perfect trade. Because of the new playoff format more teams than ever feel like they are in it and because both central divisions are so weak at the top another good chunk of teams that have poor records who would normally be looking to sell still have a decent shot at winning their division. So there might not be many sellers and that means that the few teams that are selling will be able to demand more in return for their guys. It also means that the best guys on the market will likely be scooped up by aggressive teams like the Dodgers and the Astros who are in their win now window. Optimistically maybe some teams who are barely hanging on to playoff dreams see what they could get for some of their guys and hop into the market but I wouldn’t be surprised if this year is a relatively quiet deadline. 

Here are all the teams in the league tiered by how likely they are to buy or sell: 

The Maybe Buyers and Possible Sellers are the two most interchangeable groups. The Maybe Buyers could look at the market and their world series odds and use this as an opportunity to cash in on some of their assets and the Possible Sellers could easily buckle down and hold onto their pieces and I wouldn’t be all that surprised. 

So here is my list of possible trade targets from teams that may actually sell. (In no particular order this is not a ranking of trade targets)

Eduardo Rodriguez 

ERA: 2.56 | WHIP: 1.005 | FIP: 3.34  | K/9: 9.3  | 

Ace Potential 

E-Rod would come in and immediately be the Ace of the staff. He is right in the middle of his prime at 30 years old and he is having his best season since he won 19 games in 2019. He has played for some very good Red Sox team so he knows what it’s like to play for a contender and has multiple playoff starts under his belt. 

Contract Situation

Rodriguez signed a 5 year deal in 2021 but he has an opt out after this season which he is almost guaranteed to pick up and cash in on another lucrative free agency. He is looking at going from 17 Million per year to around 25 Million. Anyone who trades for him is likely getting a rental. 

Hold Ups

Rodriguez is hurt right now so that is an obvious concern. It doesn’t seem like too serious an injury and I would suspect that Detroit is exercising an abundance of care since Rodriguez’s value is about as high as it could be and coming back early and reaggravating it or pitching poorly could only hurt. Another potential thing to worry about is that his great numbers are so much better than any other year of his career you have to worry about regression especially since he’s only made 12 starts this year. 

Cost 

It is always interesting to see what rental pieces get on the trade market. Often times teams get less than you’d think they would for star players because you’re only trading for a few months of having the star. However with the year E-Rod is having and the fact it might be slim pickins out there the price for him could easily soar sky high. I think the Tigers are going to be asking for at least 1 top 100 prospect if not more for Rodriguez and I don’t see the Orioles packaging any of their top 10 prospects for a rental so it is likely they will be outbid by a more aggressive buyer. 

Lucas Giolito

ERA: 3.45 | WHIP: 1.139 | FIP: 4.20  | K/9: 9.4  | 

Ace Potential 

By the numbers this year Giolito has not been better than Tyler Wells but he does have a much longer track record of putting together really good seasons than anyone on the Orioles staff. From 2019 to 2021 he was one of the best pitchers in the Big Leagues and after a down year in 2022 he appears to have returned to form. He also has some experience pitching in the Postseason which is what the O’s should be looking for in trade acquisition. 

Contract Situation 

Giolito is a free agent after this season so he is the definition of trading for rental at the deadline. He signed a one year deal after his down season last year with the intention of pitching well and cashing out as a free agent so if he is traded to a team like the Orioles it will be just for the remainder of the season. 

Hold Ups

I mentioned in the Ace Potential blurb that he had returned to form as a star pitcher but that is only partially true. Yes he is performing much better than he did last year but many of his underlying stats have not bounced back to what they were from 2019 to 2022. If you trade for him at this deadline you worry you might get the 2022 version of Giolito rather than the 19-21 version. 

Cost 

The same thing that is a “hold up” will also help drive the cost down on Giolito. Front offices tend to value the advanced stats over the stats that go on the back of a baseball card so the White Sox might find themselves underwhelmed by the offers they get from teams interested in Giolito with him being a rental and having suspect advanced stats. I think if the Orioles could get Giolito without giving up a top 10 prospect they should pull the trigger. 

Lance Lynn 

ERA: 6.03  | WHIP: 1.417 | FIP: 4.81  | K/9: 11.1 | 

Ace Potential 

HEAR ME OUT!! You might look at Lance Lynn’s numbers this year and think he’s been worse than anyone we’ve put on the mound this year and you might be right. It has not been a great year for Lance Lynn. However some of the numbers that look really bad are inflated by pitching just terribly for the first month of the season. (I know it is super lame to blame the WBC for this but it does seem like several WBC guys got off to slow starts and at 36 it was probably hader to bounce back from than he thought) Over the past few months since then he has steadily improved and in his last month of starts he has looked much more like himself including outings where he has been making batters miss and getting tons of strikeouts. I think because his numbers have been so bad there is a unique opportunity to buy low on a guy that is not far removed from being one of the best pitchers in the league and that has been in a ton of big games 

Contract Situation 

Lynn has a club option after this year so if things go haywire and he continues to struggle the team can decline the option and cut bait and if he makes a return to form you can keep him and pay him 18 million. With the Orioles “frugal” ownership they might decline the option even if he does pitch well so that is also an option. With the way Lynn has pitched I suspect most teams inquiring about trading for him are treating it as a one year rental and might even be asking the White Sox to help pay some of his contract for the rest of the year. 

Hold ups

In the ace potential blurb I tried to give Lynn’s season some positive spin but it really has been terrible. He leads the league in HR and ER even though his last few months have been better they haven’t been “lights out” in his last 6 starts he has given up 0,5,3,3,4,5 ER. He is also 36 years old and sometimes when pitchers get to their mid-late 30’s it is over fast so you risk trading for a washed product that you kind of knew was a washed product. 

Cost 

Lynn should be pretty inexpensive as far a trade package goes, the question is does anyone want to trade for him. I have always been a Lance Lynn fan and I feel like he could be good for the O’s this year but I wouldn’t blame the Orioles for deciding to pass on the struggling aging pitcher. That being said, if we are outbid for some of the other rental pieces and all it takes are a few prospects nobody has heard of then I’d be in favor of rolling the dice on the veteran. 

Dylan Cease 

ERA: 4.30  | WHIP: 1.344 | FIP: 3.77  | K/9: 10.8 | 

Ace Potential

Dylan Cease is an interesting case because he was 2nd in Cy Young voting last year after having by far the best season of his life so he is widely recognized as an ace pitcher but his numbers this year have been much more pedestrian and similar to the rest of his career. The truth about Dylan Cease is that he is probably not as good as he was last year but he is better than he has shown this year. I think he would be a great addition to the Orioles rotation. He is only 27 but has multiple seasons with 30+ starts so he’s been around. He has the ceiling to be an absolute ace and at his floor he’s better than Dean Kremer and Kyle Gibson. 

Contract Situation 

Cease has 2 years of arbitration after this year so he is much more than a rental piece you are looking at adding someone who could be the face of the rotation for the next couple of years. It is pretty rare that a pitcher as good as Cease gets traded with this much team control left but the White Sox are looking at a full rebuild and trading Cease would be a great way to jump start that process. 

Hold Ups

Cease was something of a surprise Cy Young candidate last year and this year his numbers are more similar to what they were before he broke out. Because he has 2 years of control left and is coming off his best season ever, you worry about paying the heavy price associated with trading for an ace and then not getting the production that you hoped for. 

Cost 

Trading for Cease is probably the most aggressive and expensive move the Orioles could make. With the ceiling he showed last year and the time left under team control the White Sox will be asking for a lot and will probably feel fine not trading him at all if the offers are not what they are hoping for. The Orioles have a loaded farm system especially with position players who can hit which the White Sox desperately need for their rebuild. The O’s have more quality infield prospects than we can give playing time. It appears the organization is cemented on Gunnar Henderson and they also appear to really like Jordan Westburg. That leaves one more starting infield spot for Joey Ortiz, Coby Mayo (the word untouchable is being used to describe Mayo), Connor Norby and eventually Jackson Holiday. I think the Orioles should be willing to trade 2 of Ortiz, Mayo or Norby along with a package of some more middling prospects and maybe a tweener player like Stowers or Vavra. The possible iterations of a trade are endless so I won’t get too bogged down in that but my overall point is that the Orioles should be willing to trade some of their top prospects for a potential star pitching. It can be painful sending out these prospects that all feel like they have so much potential especially when a big part of being an Orioles fan for the past few years was being excited about these prospects but the Major League team is good now and trading prospects is how you make the team better. We have to trust the front office that found these prospects to continue to find more. The Dodgers trade their best prospects every year and every year they have more top prospects to either trade or bring up to the majors. As Orioles fans we got used to the pain of trading away our best players for prospects and now we will have to get used to the feeling of trading our best prospects for players.

Shane Bieber 

ERA: 3.77  | WHIP: 1.248 | FIP: 4.13  | K/9: 7.3 |

Ace Potential 

Bieber has been one of the best pitchers in the League since 2019. He won the Cy Young in the shortened 2020 season, was an All Star in 2021 and got Cy Young votes just last year. This year he is a little down from his normal production but a down year for Shane Bieber is still a pretty good year. Just last year Bieber was really good for the Guardians in the playoffs and pitching against two really good teams in the Rays and the Yankees. 

Contract Situation 

Bieber has another year of arbitration after this year so you would be trading for 1.5 years of control. Trading players with a year and half left of team control is beneficial for both sides because the team trading them can ask for more and then team trading for them is risking less because if the playoff run falls flat you get their services for another or if you want you can trade them in the off season or at next years deadline and recoup some of the value. 

Hold Ups 

The biggest red flag with Bieber is that he does appear to be in a decline. His stuff is a few ticks slower these days and he has been hit much harder this year than in years past. Since he has a year and half left the Guardians will want a big haul for him and trading top prospects for someone whose best days are behind them is hard to justify. Another issue is that he just went on the 15 day IL. On one hand maybe he’s been playing through an injury and that’s why his numbers are down so when he gets back he’ll be his old self on the other this could be more serious than we know and if you trade for him maybe he barely plays this year. 

Cost 

The decline and the injury should work to bring the price down on Bieber but because he has a year and half of team control left and he has been so good the past few years the Guardians are going to ask for a lot. It should be noted that a normal organization wouldn’t even be trading Bieber if they were in Cleveland’s position fighting for their division but Cleveland isn’t a normal organization they are going to prioritize keeping their farm system strong and their costs low so they are shopping their ace in hopes of getting a big haul of prospects, if they don’t get the offers they want they can play this game again next year. I like Bieber a lot but I wouldn’t pursue him nearly as aggressively as I would Cease, of the Ortiz, Norby, Mayo trio of top prospects I would only offer one of Ortiz or Norby and a few PTNBL’s. Some of the things I said in the Cease section about fans having to get used to trading prospects for MLB talent definitely applies here with Bieber but I am much more interested in Cease than I am Bieber, however it is possible that the White Sox aren’t willing to deal Cease at all in which case Bieber may be the best non rental option on the market.

Marcus Stroman 

ERA: 2.88  | WHIP: 1.087 | FIP: 3.37  | K/9: 7.7 |

Ace Potential 

Marcus Stroman is in the middle of his best season ever. The 9 year veteran and 2 time all star would immediately come in and be the Orioles best pitcher. Since 2019 his worst season by ERA+ was last year at 117 so he has been consistently above average for years. He’s had six seasons where he has made at least 25 starts and he has made multiple postseason starts. (Although admittedly none since 2016) He’s very good and he’s very experienced but he’s not old or declining. 

Contract Situation 

Stroman has a player option after this year that I would expect him to decline in favor of cashing in on his big year. So he is basically a rental for whoever trades for him, especially a “frugal” team like Baltimore who will probably not give a 32 year old a massive extension.

Hold Ups 

Marcus Stroman does not want to be traded, he purposefully signed with the Cubs because he wanted to play for the Cubs, the outspoken pitcher has reiterated several times that he wants to remain in Chicago. I’m sure of he was traded he wouldn’t refuse to show up but Stroman appears to pitch with a lot of emotion and so if the O’s acquire him and he is not happy I’m not sure we would get the best version of him on the mound. Other hold ups include the fact that he had some rough starts between June 25th and July 6th but he bounced back in his most recent start so I’m not overly worried about that. Also Stroman is a big personality who has the potential to rub people the wrong way but in the big leagues people will put up with a lot if you can play and Stroman can play. Lastly if the Orioles traded for Stroman it would be a surefire rental, I don’t see any version of the off season where the Orioles offer Stroman a big contract. 

Cost

Stroman is an interesting case because of the fact that he is asking the club not to trade him so the Cubs probably don’t feel a ton of pressure to move him if the offers aren’t good enough. This should allow them to say no to offers that don’t include top 100 prospects and that probably pushes the Orioles out of the market for Stroman. I think it is fine to deal one or two of our top infield prospects for a pitcher with some control but it would be harder to stomach for a pure rental. 

Jack Flaherty 

ERA: 4.27  | WHIP: 1.565 | FIP: 4.02  | K/9: 8.6 |

Ace Potential

Jack Flaherty is probably a tick below a lot of the guys on this list as far as being an Ace but he is a very good pitcher on a team that will be looking to shake things up. He hasn’t been special since 2019 but he was good in 2021, barely played last year and then this year has been pretty good but hasn’t quite hit his stride and has struggled with walks and leads the league in HBPs. I think he is an intriguing young talent and that getting him now could be a good buy low opportunity for the Orioles and after struggling with injuries for a few years in St. Louis a change of scenery should be good for Flaherty. 

Contract 

Flaherty is in his last year of arbitration and will be a free agent after this year. At his age and with his track record I don’t think that it is out of the question that the Orioles could be the ones to sign him if they do end up trading for him but I think you’d have to approach this trade as if it were for a rental. 

Hold Ups

Like I mentioned in first blurb he had one amazing year in 2019 and hasn’t replicated that since. He has had injuries and has struggled with command. I don’t think you would make this trade and then feel awesome about saying Flaherty is the number 1 in the rotation it is more like we’re going to acquire this guy and see if we can return him to his old self and if we do it’s kind of found money and if not he can be a middle of the rotation guy. 

Cost 

If the Cardinals really are looking to blow it up (never underestimate a prideful organization stubbornness when it comes to blowing it up) I think Flaherty will be very available. He hasn’t been a consistent part of their rotation like they hoped he would and he will be a free agent at the end of this year. At the most a prospect like Ceasar Prieto or Hunter Haskin along with a PTBNL feels like enough to get Flaherty. 

Honorable Mentions

Jordan Montgomery: Maybe I should have written about Montgomery but after watching him so many years on the Yankees and then down the stretch last year I just don’t think he is quite that guy. Also he has just one postseason start so I’d honestly rather start Bradish or Wells.

Michael Lorenzen: I don’t think it would be smart to trade for Lorenzen while is his value is at the highest it’s been in years and I prefer most of the guys in the Orioles rotation over him.

Josiah Gray: I don’t think the Nationals would be willing to part with their young Ace and the fact he made the All Star team this year would make him even more expensive. Plus no postseason experience which is what the rotation needs.

Mitch Keller: Similar to Josiah the Pirates won’t be willing to deal someone they view as being a part of the next great Pirates team.

Kyle Hendricks: Having a good year but is coming off back to back years where his ERA was almost 5 and has been struggling lately I suspect by the end of the year his ERA will be on the wrong side of 4.

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander: It would be awesome to have either one of these guys but I think the Mets expect to have these guys on their roster next year even if this turns to be a lost season plus their AAV of over 40 million each would scare John Angelos to death.

Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober: I was really hoping the Twins would stink this year and we could get one of these guys especially Lopez but I think they are gonna go all out to win their division.

Corbin Burnes: I was also hoping the Brewers would stink and sell but they are also going to compete for their division.

Blake Snell: I would love to get Snell but I think the Padres are going down with the ship this season and on the slim chance he does hit the market he’d be by far the most expensive rental.

Jesus Luzardo: Maybe if the Marlins lose every game from now until the trade deadline they’d consider moving Luzardo.

Logan Gilbert: There have actually been some rumors about the Mariners looking for some offense but I think moving young pitching to get win now offense when your team is in 9th would be such a bad move there’s no way they do it.

Shohei Ohtani: I would be less surprised if the Orioles never lost another game than if they traded for Ohtani at the deadline.

I wrote most of this before I watched Kyle Bradish pitch 7.1 shutout innings and look a lot like an ace so maybe we already have out game 1 starter on the roster but even if that is the case I’d still love to see the front office make a win now move and bring in more pitching talent.