The Orioles have the best record in the American League and people and nobody outside of Orioles fans could have predicted it. The Orioles surprise rise to the top of the standings has left experts struggling to explain how they are doing this.
The Orioles don’t have an elite rotation or even a single Ace starter that a casual baseball fan could name, even though they have exciting young stars like Adley and Gunnar nobody on the team is putting an MVP type year and carrying the lineup in fact as of right now they have only one hitter with an OPS over .800 and he’s not even a qualified hitter, a lot of people point to the bullpen but ever since Cano came crashing back to Earth Felix Bautista is the Orioles only truly elite bullpen arm. Despite the fact that the Orioles have the best record in the AL fangraphs gives the Rays, Astros, Rangers and even the Bluejays better odds to win the World Series.
In contrast the 1 seed in the National League, the Atlanta Braves, have 2 hitters who are MVP candidates and bunch of hitters with OPS’ over .800 and a Cy Young candidate in Spencer Strider which makes it easy to understand how they have stacked up so many wins and why fangraphs has them as the clear favorites to win the World Series.
So how have the Orioles without the MVP candidates and ace’s of the Atlanta Braves kept pace with them this year?
To see how the Orioles have managed to win so many games I decided to break it up by month and look at what hitters carried the lineup and who struggled when to get a better idea of how the Orioles have exceeded all expectations this year.
April/March – Record 19-9
Stars
Jorge Mateo
AVG: .347 | OPS: 1.062 | HR: 6 | RBI: 17 | SB: 10 | WRC+: 186
Austin Hays
AVG: .312 | OPS: .900 | HR: 4 | RBI: 11 | 2B: 7 | WRC+: 146
Adley Rutschman
AVG: .291 | OPS: .846 | HR: 4 | RBI: 17 | BB: 22 | WRC+: 137
Cedric Mullins
AVG: .255 | OPS: .794 | HR: 3 | RBI: 21 | SB: 11 | WRC+: 124
April was the month of Jorge Mateo. Jorge had the best month of his entire career, he was an MVP frontrunner, there were segments about him on every baseball show, people wondered if the Orioles would extend him, we really thought we had tapped into Jorge Mateo’s true potential and it was awesome. We know it didn’t last but he deserves a ton of credit for the Orioles hot start. Austin Hays and Adley Rutschman both had very good months that put their names into All star conversation and Cedric Mullins had a great month hitting with runners in scoring position. These 4 hitters carried the Orioles through the first month of the season. An honorable mention goes to Ryan Mountcastle and Ramon Urias who were about average but both pitched in a good amount of offense. Mountcastle hit 6 homers and Ramon had an OBP of .369.
Slumpers
Gunnar Henderson
AVG: .189 | OPS .659 | HR: 2 | RBI: 4 | K: 29 | WRC+: 95
Anthony Santander
AVG: .213 | OPS: .642 | HR: 2 | RBI: 11 | K: 30 | WRC+: 75
Adam Frazier
AVG: .220 | OPS: .663 | HR: 3 | RBI: 10 | K: 11 | WRC+: 84
Gunnar got off to a slow start to the season, he was very passive at the plate and struckout a lot and it led to him having a good OBP but very little impact outside of the walks. Santander’s struggles were somewhat attributed to the WBC which I’m not sure if I believe but I’m not sure what else it could be and Frazier seemed to be doing a Rougned Odor impression for the first month of the year. Don’t worry though all of these guys heated up and became big time contributors later in the season. An honorable mention goes to Kyle Stowers who couldn’t hit a thing and then was banished to triple A and James McCan who wasn’t great but also didn’t play much due to injury.
May – Record 16-12
Stars
Anthony Santander
AVG: .337 | OPS: 1.056 | HR: 7 | RBI: 22 | R: 18 | WRC+ 191
Cedric Mullins
AVG: .271 | OPS: .877 | HR: 5 | RBI: 18 | R: 13 | WRC+: 140
Adley Rutschman
AVG: .286 | OPS: .861 | HR: 4 | RBI: 11 | BB: 21 | WRC+: 142
Ryan O’Hearn
AVG: .269 | OPS: .937 | HR 2 | RBI: 7 | SLG: .615 | WRC+: 152
Austin Hays
AVG: .310 | OPS: .815 | HR: 2 | RBI: 12 | R: 10 | WRC+: 124
Aaron Hicks
AVG: .296 | OPS: .869 | HR: 1 | RBI: 4 | R: 7 | WRC+: 144
In a month where several Orioles were very good Anthony Santander was the stand out performer. He broke out of his April slump and had an incredible month. Adley and Austin continued their All Star campaigns and Cedric continued to be a monster hitting with runners in scoring position. Ryan O’Hearn and Aaron Hicks entered the mix and in limited plate appearances were very good. Adam Frazier deserves an honorable mention in his month where he hit .269 with an OPS of .774 which is the statline that the Oriole were hoping for when they gave him 8 million dollars.
Slumpers
Jorge Mateo
AVG: .128 | OPS: .316 | HR: 0 | K: 26 | SB: 5 | WRC+: -18
Ryan Mountcastle
AVG: .222 | OPS: .704 | HR: 5 | K: 31 | BB: 6 | WRC+: 87
Gunnar Henderson
AVG: .213 | OPS: .733 | HR: 3 | K: 28 | R: 13 | WRC+: 99
Ramon Urias
AVG: .231 | OPS: .626 | HR: 0 | K: 12 | BB: 4 | WRC+: 79
James McCann
AVG: .182 | OPS: .484 | HR: 0 | K: 8 | RBI: 1 | WRC+: 33
Headlining the slumpers is Jorge Mateo who had one of the best months in baseball in April and followed it up by one of the worst months in all of baseball and unfortunately he is going to be a regular in the slumper section. Ryan Mountcastle’s battle with vertigo set in the last couple weeks of May which tanked his stats after he got off to a promising start. Gunnar Hendersons started to heat up at the end of the month which was a good sign for June. Ramon Urias and James McCann dealt with injuries and limited playing time.
June – Record 13-11
Stars
Gunnar Henderson
AVG: .320 | OPS: .994 | HR: 6 | RBI: 16 | R: 10 | WRC+: 171
Austin Hays
AVG: .326 | OPS: .847 | HR: 2 | RBI: 11 | R: 15 | WRC+: 134
Aaron Hicks
AVG: .250 | OPS: .858 | HR: 4 | RBI: 11 | BB: 14 | WRC+: 139
Ryan O”Hearn
AVG: .309 | OPS: .867 | HR: 4 | RBI: 8 | R: 13 | WRC+: 138
June was the coming out party for Gunnar Henderson. He took on a more aggressive approach at the plate and began to smash baseballs all around the yard. It couldn’t have come at a better time with Adley, Santander, and Mateo all struggling and Mountcastle and Mullins out for the majority of the month. Speaking of Mullins and Mountcastle missing time their replacements in the lineup came in, caught fire and carried the lineup through the month of June. Austin Hays continued his career year and solidified his spot on the All Star team. Jordan Westburg made his debut and had good numbers in just 15 plate appearances.
Slumpers
Adley Rutschman
AVG: .222 | OPS: .660 | HR: 3 | RBI: 7 | BB: 9 | WRC+: 80
Adam Frazier
AVG: .186 | OPS: .623 | HR: 3 | RBI: 12 | BB: 7 | WRC+: 71
Jorge Mateo
AVG: .196 | OPS: .500 | HR: 0 | RBI: 4 | SB: 6 | WRC+: 38
Adley Rutschman’s slump during the month of June cost him the started spot on the All Star team (in the first round of voting he won by a ton but during the second round of voting Jonah Heim beat him out because Adley’s season numbers took a dip). Adam Frazier struggled possibly due to an injury. Jorge Mateo’s woes continued. Santander’s production dipped from May but his June stats were more average than bad so didn’t include him. Urias and McCan were also more average than bad so they were spared from being grouped in with the slumpers.
July – Record 17-9
Stars
Ryan Mountcastle
AVG: .350 | OPS: 1.011 | HR: 2 | RBI: 7 | R: 7 | WRC+: 174
Ryan O’Hearn
AVG: .324 | OPS: .893 | HR: 3 | RBI: 15 | R: 9 | WRC+: 141
Adam Frazier
AVG: .288 | OPS: .871 | HR: 4 | RBI: 14 | R: 9 | WRC+: 136
Gunnar Henderson
AVG: .245 | OPS: .824 | HR: 6 | RBI: 15 | R: 19 | WRC+: 124
July was marked by the triumphant return of Ryan Mountcastle. After a long battle with vertigo Mounty came back with a vengeance and immediately made an impact. Ryan O’Hearn continued to be one of the best hitters in the lineup making it interesting for Hyde to find a way to get him and Mountcastle into the lineup since they play the same position, originally there was a thought that they would just be a good platoon pairing but they both hit well against lefties and righties. Adam Frazier bounced back after a slow June to fend off Jordan Westburg from taking his everyday starter spot. Even though Gunnar cooled off a little after a blazing hot June he still hit really well for power and was super impactful. Rutschman, Santander and Cedric Mullins all pitched in above average hitting months as well making it perhaps the Orioles best month of the season.
Slumpers
Austin Hays
AVG: .162 | OPS: .446 | HR: 1 | RBI: 6 | R: 6 | WRC+: 18
Jorge Mateo
AVG: .167 | OPS: .488 | HR: 0 | RBI: 4 | SB: 3 | WRC+: 29
Aaron Hicks
AVG: .228 | OPS: .637 | HR: 2 | RBI: 9 | R: 8 | WRC+: 75
Colton Cowser
AVG: .098 | OPS: .360 | HR: 0 | RBI: 4 | R: 10 | WRC+: 13
James McCann
AVG: .200 | OPS: .526 | HR: 0 | RBI 3 | R: 3 | WRC+: 41
July’s slumpers class is headlined by All Star starter Austin Hays, this unfortunately seems to be a bit of a trend for Austin after he got off to a hot start last year and followed it by a dismal second half. Whether it is injury or fatigue something happens to Austin Hays after the All Star break and he just isn’t the same player. One stat to look at is his launch angle, in his all star first half of the year Hays was hitting the ball in the air and in his slump he has been hitting the ball on the ground. Jorge Mateo’s slump from Hell continued and he lost his starter spot to Gunnar. Aaron Hicks came back to Earth before suffering an injury and going on the IL. Cowser was called up and struggled mightily. McCann fell from average at the plate to bad at the plate. Ramon Urias and Jordan Westburg both struggled a bit but did enough to stay off the slump list.
August (So far) – Record 9-5
Stars
Ryan Mountcastle
AVG: .420 | OPS: 1.072 | HR: 2 | RBI: 8 | R: 9 | WRC+: 200
Jordan Westburg
AVG: .302 | OPS: .775 | HR: 1 | RBI: 4 | R: 6 | WRC+: 114
James McCann
AVG: .529 | OPS: 1.336 | HR: 0 | RBI: 8 | R:6 | WRC+: 262
If you thought July Ryan Mountcastle was good, meet August Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle’s hot streak has come at a great time because the rest of the lineup is really struggling this month. Jordan Westburg is hitting just over .300 so that is good but he’s hitting mostly singles. McCann’s bat getting hot has been a huge boost and even though it is in a somewhat small sample size (though it is not a nothing sample size he is hitting .529 in 21 plate appearances). Rutschman, O’Hearn, Urias and Hays are all hovering just below 100 WRC+ which means most of the lineup has been below average this month. Cedric Mullins and Aaron Hicks just came off the IL and are getting eased back into the lineup.
Slumpers
Adam Frazier
AVG: .240 | OPS: .566 | HR: 0 | RBI: 1 | R: 2 | WRC+: 57
Gunnar Henderson
AVG: .211 | OPS: .602 | HR: 2 | RBI: 11 | K: 15 | WRC+: 59
Anthony Santander
AVG: .188 | OPS: .674 | HR: 3 | RBI: 6 | K: 15 | WRC+: 85
Henderson and Santander slumping at the same time makes it really hard for the Orioles to score runs and Frazier continues to have an up and down year at the plate. I took Mateo off because he only had 14 plate appearances and appears to be shifting to more of a pinch runner role. Cowser continued to struggle before getting sent down.
Personally I have really enjoyed the Orioles players taking turns being the stars of the month. Baseball is a game of runs and you can’t avoid cold streaks but the team has had different guys step up when the team has needed them all year.
Here is a chart of all the everyday players OPS by month if you are more of a visual learner.
The Dishwasher 
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