With less than a month left in the regular season the Orioles are 3.5 games up on the Rays with a much easier schedule down the stretch. Despite the fact that the Orioles are putting the finishing touches on their best season of the 2000’s there is doubt about their ability to go on a deep playoff run. Fangraphs gives the Orioles a 77% chance to win the division over the Rays. Assuming the Orioles do win the division they would most likely be the 1 seed and get a bye while the Rays would have to compete in the wildcard round in the 4-5 seed matchup which based on Fangraphs projections would be the Mariners. The winner of that series would then face the Orioles in the ALDS. Most of the time the 1 seed is favored to beat whoever comes out of the wildcard round however Fangraphs gives the Rays a 8% chance to win the World Series and the Mariners 5% chance to win the World Series and at the same time they give the Orioles just a 4% chance which by my understanding means that the Fangraphs believes that whoever comes out of the wildcard series will beat the Orioles.
Now Fangraphs also had the Orioles projected to miss the playoffs so they’ve been wrong about the O’s all year so I’m not too worried that their projections have the Orioles getting bounced in the ALDS but they are not alone in doubting the Orioles. The general consensus is that the Orioles are having a nice season and are a fun team but are not a real contender and the reason for that doubt is the pitching staff.
The pitching staff has been the lighting rod for Orioles skepticism all year and is likely to blame for fangraphs and other outlets doubting the Orioles ability to make the playoffs at all this year but Kyle Bradish has emerged as an Ace and Tyler Wells turned in an excellent first half of the season. That combined with consistent (although at times underwhelming) starts from Kremer and Gibson have allowed the Orioles to get through the season with what many experts deemed a “weak rotation”
Since the Orioles called Grayson Rodriguez back up they moved to a 6 man rotation. In that time Rodriguez and Bradish have both pitched like Aces and Dean Kremer has solidified himself as the 3rd best starter in the rotation. At the same time Gibson, Flaherty and Irvin have all been pretty inconsistent to the point where there is quite a bit of mystery as to who would be the 4th starter in a playoff series.
The 4th starter options
Kyle Gibson
ERA: 5.15 | WHIP: 1.340 | ERA+: 82 | FIP: 4.04 | K/9: 7.6 | QS: 14 | Record 13-8
When I wrote about the rotation around the trade deadline I assumed that Kyle Gibson would actually be the game 1 starter in any playoff series because he was the veteran free agent addition and he had pitched pretty well up until that point but since then he has been significantly worse to the point where he has possibly pitched himself out of the playoff rotation.
What Gibson was doing well at the start of the year was giving the Orioles length in each of his starts and giving the team a chance to win even if he wasn’t lights out. Recently he has had several blow up starts where even if he hangs in there and pitches a few more innings after the damage is done to spare the bullpen by the time he hands the ball over the game is pretty much lost and the worst part is that when he struggled he struggled in the first two innings so it’s not even a matter of not being able to get through the lineup multiple times it is more of a sometimes he shows up to the ballpark and doesn’t have it which in a playoff start is just unacceptable.
I would say that starting Kyle Gibson is a coin flip where you are just as likely to get 7 innings and 3ER or 4.1 innings 7 ER. Last year Gibson’s team the Phillies decided to basically pretend Gibson didn’t exist and he pitched just a few innings in their entire World Series run and I wouldn’t be surprised, if Gibson can’t turn it around in the next month, if the Orioles give him the same treatment.
Jack Flaherty
ERA: 4.84 | WHIP: 1.545 | ERA+: 89 | FIP: 4.36 | K/9: 9.1 | QS: 8 | Record 8-8
It was not long ago that Jack Flaherty went 6 innings and 1ER in his first start as an Orioles and it felt like the rotation was really coming together. However since then it has not been great for Jack Flarherty and his ERA as an Oriole is 6.66. In the 4 starts and 18.1 innings since the Toronto game Flaherty has allowed 31 baserunners and at least 1 home run each start. Those numbers are pretty indefensible and paint the picture of a pitcher who should be kept far away from a playoff rotation and possibly even the playoff roster entirely.
The only thing I can say for Jack Flaherty is that I think he has gotten a little unlucky with some of the bounces the balls in play have taken. He had the weird out of the base paths play against the D-Backs that eventually led to him getting pulled at 4.2 innings and a no decision instead of getting 5 innings and a win (and possibly more because his pitch count was not that high) and in the Rockies game he just needed a little batted ball luck to get 6 innings 3 ER which would have been his second quality start as an Oriole. I am also encouraged by the strikeout numbers which have been pretty good despite his struggles.
If Flaherty is in the playoff rotation I expect the strategy to be to have a long man like Irvin or maybe Means prepared to have a bulk outing out of the bullpen and then have a quick hook for Flaherty when the wheel start to come off. I think that it would be easier to do something like this with Flaherty than with Gibson because Flaherty doesn’t struggle nearly as much in the first inning as Gibson.
I wouldn’t rule out Flaherty bouncing back and earning that 4th starter spot but as of right now I think the Orioles have better options.
Cole Irvin
ERA: 4.91 | WHIP: 1.378 | ERA+: 87 | FIP: 4.51 | K/9: 8.0 | QS: 1 | Record 1-4
Cole Irvin has had a weird season. He got off to a terrible start, got sent down to triple A, pitched well in the minors, got called up to a bullpen role, made a few spot starts, went back to the bullpen before settling into the Orioles current 6 man rotation. After all that I think that he is currently our fourth best starter.
Over the past few months Cole Irvin’s best start (5 shutout innings against the red hot Mariners) is better than any start that either Gibson or Flaherty has had and his worst start (5.2 innings 4ER vs the D-Backs) is much better than the worst starts either Gibson or Flaherty. So I view Irvin as the highest ceiling and the highest floor candidate for the fourth starter.
So I think that Irvin is the best option but will he actually get the fourth starter role? The other 2 guys in contention have been starters all year while Irvin has bounced around from the rotation to the minors to the pen back to the rotation. In the real world where you have to manage egos and personalities it would probably be the easy move to send Irvin back to the pen and role with one of the other 2 guys and while I think that Irvin is the best option he isn’t so far and away better than the other 2 guys to make it an obvious choice so I could see Hyde prioritizing the vibes which wouldn’t necessarily be the wrong call but if I were him I would roll with Irvin and send the other 2 guys to the pen.
Is that John Means’ Music?
John Means
I don’t think that it would be fair to expect John Means to come back from Tommy John surgery and immediately start a playoff game. Means is making a rehab start in Triple-A Norfolk today so even if he gets called back up the big leagues immediately after his start the soonest he could start would be September 12th and if he just slid into a spot in the Orioles 6th man rotation that would allow him time to make 4 starts before the end of the regular season. Means would have to look incredible in his triple-A rehab start and then flawlessly transition to the big leagues for me to feel good about making him the starter.
That being said, in the unlikely event that everything goes perfect for Means and he comes back and looks like vintage John Meansg then he would be the obvious choice to be the starter over Irvin, Gibson and Flaherty.
Most likely he comes back and takes a long relief role out of the bullpen which is also exciting to think about him having a great playoff moment coming into the game in a big spot.
Tyler Wells
I wanted to mention Wells because he did have a very good first half of the season but with how much his arm fatigue is affecting him I don’t think he will be a starter again this year. I think it is a strong possibility that he comes back as a bullpen arm and he has good stuff for a role like that so I’m rooting for him to be able to get back to the big leagues and make an impact.
An Opener?
I mentioned the possibility of something similar to this in the Jack Flaherty blurb but I think it is possible because they’ll have 2 lefty options and 2 righty options that they announce one guy, let’s say Irvin, the opposing team puts out their best left handing hitting lineup then after Irvin pitches one time through the lineup in goes Jack Flaherty or Kyle Gibson and they pitch until the late innings.
The Dishwasher 
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