100% Correct Predictions for the NBA Season – Part 1

The NBA season started yesterday and I meant to finish this yesterday but I always underestimate how long writing takes. So here are my 100% correct predictions for the upcoming season. I’ll cover how I think the standings will shake out at the end of the year and provide a quick explanation for why. 

The East was difficult to predict because after the top 2 teams it feels like there is a steep decline in the quality of the teams and differentiating between teams 3 through 7 feels like splitting hairs but I bravely persevered and ranked these teams anyway. 

The East Standings

1. The Boston Celtics (56 – 26)

This is the most aggressive offseason for the Boston Celtics in a long time. In a controversial move they traded away Marcus Smart who had been a tentpole member of this Celtics core since 2014, in exchange for Kristaps Porzingis and 2 first round picks. I hated this move even though they got really good value for a non all star player because they traded away a tough defensive leader for proven wet blanket loser in Porzingis but then they flipped 2 injury prone role players in Brogden and Williams for Jrue Holiday who is an upgrade in the Marcus Smart role. So overall I think they did improve their personnel and made their team even more suited to be the offensive juggernaut that their coach Joe Mazzulla’s scheme calls for. They also beefed up the coaching staff around Mazzulla to fill in for his weaknesses as a young coach and as much as I have my doubts of Porzingis as a guy you want in a playoff series he should thrive in this system.

I think that Holiday and Porzingis will gel really well with Tatum and Brown and they will be able to get off to a fast start playing Mazzulla’s fast paced offensive style. My only real concern is that with Brogdon and Williams out the door the previously very strong bench is now just Payton Pritchard, Al Horford and a bunch of question marks but with all the star power the Celtics have they should be able to rotate their best players so that they never have an especially weak unit on the court. 

2. The Milwaukee Bucks (55 – 27)

The Bucks are the Celtics biggest competition for the 1 seed in the East. Their front offense had an incredible offseason both trading for Dame and extending Giannis. In the Giannis era this team has been a perennial top seed and this year it feels like the 2 seed is their floor. With Giannis, Dame, Middleton and Lopez the Bucks are so talented that even if the new coaching hire is a disaster and they have to fire him 2 months into the season I think they will still be the 2 seed but I’ll point out why I think they will fall short of the Celtics in the standings. 

After losing to the Heat last year the Bucks fired their coach Mike Budenholzer and hired Adrian Griffin. Budenholzer had his flaws but everywhere he has coached his teams have been really good regular season teams and I think that in what will probably be a close race between the Celtic’s and Bucks the growing pains of implementing a whole new system will be enough to be the reason that the Bucks will end up as the 2 seed. 

3. The Atlanta Hawks (52 – 30)

The Hawks are going to be this year’s Sacramento Kings. The Trae Young led Hawks have been loitering in the play in tournament ever since their miraculous Eastern Conference Finals run and I believe the difference between Nate McMillan (Really bad coach) and Quin Snyder (Really good coach) is that the Hawks will be a much better regular season team than they have the past few years. Snyder built an incredibly effective system around Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert that I think will transfer very well over to Trae Young and (insert whichever big is on the floor with him). This Hawks team is also very deep and I think will be able to withstand any injuries that in other years might have derailed the team. Get ready to be surprised by the Atlanta Hawks. 

4. The Cleveland Cavaliers (49 – 32)

The Cavs are returning most of their squad from last year the main difference being their additions they made to try to fill the gaping hole they have at small forward. I think the additions of Strus and Niang as actual shooting threats to stretch the floor for their 2 big lineup will make this Cavs team a lot better when it matters in the playoffs but as far their win total in the regular season I think they will be about the same the Mitchell, Garland, Mobley and Allen core feels like a lock to win between 48 – 52 games. 

An X factor that could cause the Cavs to fly up the standings would be a major leap from Evan Mobley. Right now Mobley is a great defender but his offensive game is not as versatile as fans imagined it would be after his rookie season when he showed a lot of promise. If Mobley makes a leap the Cavs ceiling goes from second round exit to actual contender. 

5. The New York Knicks (48 – 34)

The Knicks are funny because they are always in the news as the destination of the next disgruntled super star and even though on the eve of this season their hopes of acquiring Giannis were dashed I still like the team that they have slowly built. I think that there is another level of Jalen Brunson that we haven’t seen yet that we will see this year and that around him and Randle they have a wealth of complimentary young players that will do well in Thibs system and Thibs doesn’t have any 2012 Bulls players to play over the young guys so I think it will be a fun year for Knicks fans. They’ll also get to hear their team mentioned as Embiid’s next destination after every bad 76ers loss.

6. The Miami Heat (45 – 37)

It feels a little disrespectful to have the eastern conference champions this low but last year this team was the 8 seed and they lost a lot of their key role players. They will be relying on contributions from old players like Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love and frustrating journeymen like Josh Richardson and RJ Hamption. Knowing the Heat all of these players will somehow have career years and they’ll be back in the finals but looking at this team I just can’t see them being a dominant regular season team. Out of respect for Jimmy and Bam and the run they just went on I am predicting them to do just enough to avoid the play in tournament. 

7. The Philadelphia 76ers (44 – 38)

This team is in a lot of trouble. The James Harden situation is threatening to tank the whole teams season as Harden and GM Daryl Morey are locked in a standoff daring the other to blink first. Basketball is a team sport and bad vibes have the ability to topple even the strongest teams let alone a team like the 76ers Harden wants to be traded and Morey is determined to get the best deal possible and is willing to wait it out into the season and I think the result even if Harden begrudgingly plays will be about a .500 squad. If Harden does eventually get traded it seems like the return will most likely be roles players like Terrance Mann and that would elevate Tyrese Maxey to be the 2nd best player on the team and I just think that Maxey is probably a tier below what you would want as your 2nd best player and that the Sixers will feel this as Tucker and Harris continue to age and their bench unit is relying on Kelly Oubre and Pat Bev. 

On a positive note they have Embiid who is a great player, Nurse who is a championship coach and Morey who is widely recognized as one of the best GMs at keeping his team competitive so there is something to build on. 

8. The Orlando Magic (42 – 40)

The Magic and the Sixers very near each other in the standings but the trajectories of the two teams couldn’t be more different. This Magic team won’t be quite good enough to break into the top 6 but unlike the Evan Fournier Nikola Vucevic versions of the Magic this team will be an exciting 8 seed. I expect steps forward from Paolo Banquero and Franz Wagner and I think it is possible both of those guys make the All Star team. 

What will hold the Magic back is a suspect guard rotation  with not enough shooting around their star backcourt but that is something that could be fixed before the trade deadline or if one of their young guards develops so I think there is another level they could get to at some point in the season. 

9. The Indiana Pacers (41 – 41)

Similar to the Magic, the Pacers are going to have a fun young team this year. The Pacers are set to catch a lot of teams napping as I think their rebuild has gone a little more under the radar than the Magic and funnily enough the have the opposite problem as the Magic where there star guards are not going to be enough to make up for the lack of good defensive wings but again a trade or a breakout from Jerrace Walker or Obi Toppin (who I am excited to see get regular minutes) and the Pacers could be frisky in the play in tournament. 

10.  The Brooklyn Nets (40 – 42)

The Nets are a weird team. They have several players that contending teams would want and will want but they don’t have a real star to make the engine go. Mikal Bridges is a fun number 1 option but ultimately he’s probably better suited to be a #2 or even #3 on a contending team. Ben Simmons is a massive question mark and I’ll believe it when I see it with him. Finney-Smith, O’Neale, Dinwiddie and even Cam Johnson will all be sought after players at the trade deadline but the Nets sent most of their picks to Houston for James Harden so they aren’t incentivised to have a full on fire sale.

If Simmons is back to his All NBA Self this team could have some upside but I think most likely they will hover below .500 and if their smart sell a few of their wings at the trade deadline. 

11. The Detroit Pistons (35 – 47)

The Pistons keep drafting guys that I really like and then signing and trading for players to make it as difficult as possible for them to succeed. The core of Cunningham, Ivey, Thompson and Duren has some potential but the team around them does not fill me with confidence. I put them at 11th in East because I believe Cunningham is going to play like the number 1 pick he was drafted to be and Ausar Thompson is going to be one of the best rookies in his class but if those things don’t happen then this team could be heading towards another sub 20 win season. 

12. The Toronto Raptors (33 – 49)

This team just keeps running it back every year but a little bit worse and now they’ve lost Nick Nurse who is widely recognized as a very good coach. They are a lot like the Nets where they have lots of wings who contending teams are going to want to trade for but unlike the Nets they are really hurting for shooting. There isn’t one really good shooter in the projected starting lineup and on the whole team there might be 2-3. This just isn’t how you build a good team now. They really need to shake it up but they keep making win now moves. They hired a coach known for player development and I think if they are smart they’ll trade Siakam and Anunoby and go for a full rebuild but there’s no sign that they are interested in that. As their team stands their ceiling is being in the play in tournament but even that seems optimistic. 

13. The Washington Wizards (31 – 51)

The Wizards are going to be better than most people think this year. Jordan Poole is going to be interesting as a number 1 option, he’ll be inconsistent but on the good nights he can be as good of an offensive engine as anyone (on the bad nights it’s a worst player in the NBA kind of vibe). They have Tyus Jones and Delon Wright to steady the ship and I think that they will be able to run out some units with really good spacing that will be hard to guard. The main objective of the season is to develop Coulibaly and see if any of their young guys are worth keeping around for the next good wizards team. At the end of the day they will still be a lottery team but I think they’ll be a fun lottery team.

14. The Chicago Bulls (24 – 58)

Derozan and Lavine are still there but it feels like every year that duo gets less and less effective every year as their supporting cast deteriorates. The Vucevic trade has proven to be disastrous as they have almost nothing to show as far as young talent. I’m not very interested in seeing what Coby White and Patrick Williams can become. Ayo Dosunmu is good for a second round pick but just because he kind of looks like Tyrese Maxey doesn’t make him Tyrese Maxey. If this team is smart they will ship out Lavine, Derozan, Caruso and anyone else that teams will give up an asset for. 

15. The Charlotte Hornets (20 – 62)

This team does not have much  talent and what talent they do have either doesn’t fit together especially well or are significant injury risks. The mission this year for the Hornets is to develop Brandon Miller and see what you have in the Mark Williams, JT Thor and Nick Richards bunch. If all those guys pop and Lamelo is healthy all year maybe they can win 30 games. 

The West Standings

The West was even harder to predict than the East because, besides the Nuggets, all of the best teams in the West are led by aging super stars. The Lakers, Suns and Warriors are arguably 3 of the top 4 teams but their teams are old and not especially deep and old and lacking depth is not a recipe for a dominant regular season. There are also multiple teams coming out of long rebuilds that are expecting to take big steps forward and teams that made the playoffs last year that didn’t take a step back. By my count there are 11 teams that probably feel they should be a top 6 seed and that’s just not possible. 

1. The Denver Nuggets (61 – 21)

The defending champs feel like a sure thing at the top of the west standings. They are bringing back their entire starting lineup and I think they will mow through teams in the regular season. Nikola Jokic is in the middle of one of the greatest stretches in NBA history and I think he is continuing to get better. Jamal Murray is the first player to ever have to prove that he can perform in the regular season and I think this is the year he makes his first All Star game. I think the Nuggets are looking at a 60 win season. 

The Nuggets did lose Bruce Brown and Jeff Green and they are expecting Christian Braun and Peyton Watson to step up and fill those shoes. I think that those 2 young guys should be able do a good job replacing them but if they aren’t able to this front office will make the necessary moves to improve the roster to give the team the best chance to repeat as champions

2. The Minnesota Timberwolves (51 – 31)

I feel like Charlie Brown with the football believing in the Wolves again but I feel better about it this year because last year I didn’t factor in that D’angelo Russell would be sabotaging the team from the inside. I don’t think it can be overstated how much Russell killed them last year. Also they lost KAT for most of the season and managed to stay afloat. With a full season of Conley and KAT I think the Wolves will fulfill their potential and be a great regular season team. A lot of people expect Anthony Edwards to make a major leap and while I think that is a possibility I don’t think he necessarily needs to be much better for the Wolves to be really good this year. 

My only worry is the KAT and Gobert pairing. If it continues to be choppy on offense and ineffective on defense then they will definitely have to look into trading KAT but I am choosing to believe in Chris Finch as a coach and that after a full offseason they’ll be able to figure it out. 

3. The Sacramento Kings (50 – 32)

A lot of people are picking the Kings to regress but I honestly don’t see that happening. After the way they lost in the first round last year I think this Kings team is going to be hungry to prove that they were not a flash in the pan and they are bringing back everyone that mattered from last year’s team and the benefit of having a young team is that a lot of those players should be better, I’m especially looking for a leap from Keegan Murray. 

One of the reasons that people think that the Kings will regress this year is that they were very healthy last year but I think that is something of a fallacy. Being healthy for a season does not increase your chances of injury the next season and another benefit of fielding a young team is that young players are generally healthy. Also Sabonis played most of last year with a broken hand so he should be able to be more effective than he was last year. 

4. The Phoenix Suns (49 – 33)

This team is stacked with top end talent. In a league full of dynamic duos the Suns top 2 guys are up there with anybody. On top of that I think the front office made a lot of good acquisitions to fill out the bench on a budget after the Bradley Beal trade pushed them up against the second apron. The Ayton trade made very little sense to me. I understand feeling like Ayton wasn’t a great fit with the other top 3 guys but I think they sold very low on him and that if and when they run into Jokic in the playoffs Nurkic is not going to be a better answer than Ayton. They also assisted the Milwaukee Bucks in getting Damian Lillard which if they do make the finals they are now likely to see a super charged Bucks team that they helped create. I just think that if they were more patient they could have found a better deal that didn’t directly help one of the biggest contenders get better. Also they went from Monty Williams to Frank Vogel which I think is at best a lateral move.

As far as the regular season goes the Suns are top heavy and all 3 of their guys have battled injuries the last couple of regular seasons. I think when those 3 guys are healthy and playing they will win most of those games but I think there will also be a lot of games with just 1 or 2 of those guys and they’ll lose a lot of those games. I think they’ll be the kind of 4 seed that teams may intentionally lose at the end of the season to avoid having to play in the first round. 

5. The Los Angeles Lakers (47 – 35)

The Lakers made a lot of moves this off season to reshape their team around Lebron and AD after they made a heroic run the the Western Conference finals that ended with them being easily swept away by the eventual Champions. The core of Lebron, AD and Reaves (lol), is very good and come playoff time nobody will want to face them but I think that a lot of the moves the Lakers made are overrated and there’s a good chance that a lot of those guys don’t make it to the end of the regular season. Lakers fans will be clamoring for  D’Angelo Russel, Jackson Hayes, Christian Wood, Gabe Vincent, and Cam Reddish to be sent to the moon after 25 games. (They will be pleasantly surprised with Taurean Prince) 

If Lebron and AD continue to struggle to stay healthy the play in tournament is not out of the question for the Lakers but I’m Optomistic they will both play around 65 games and that should be enough for the Lakers to be a top 5 seed. 

6. The Golden State Warriors (45 – 37)

The Warriors were the 6 seed last year despite weathering all time bad vibes following the Draymond Green – Jordan Poole incident. They jettisoned Jordan Poole and brought in Chris Paul and now it will be interesting to see how they handle this season with a rather strange starting lineup. There’s a lot of future hall of famers with a lot of pride on this team and there’s not really a good way to get them all in the starting lineup but they’re going to try. 

This team is full of guys that know how to win so even as they age and slow down they will be able to win games with their institutional know-how and play in the clutch. They’ll have a good record when their best guys play but part of having a team full of guys on the wrong side of 30 is that those guys are going to miss time. If they get a really healthy Steph season then a top 4 seed is definitely on the table but I think it is more likely he plays around 65 and this team paces itself through the regular season and has the confidence to go and beat higher seeds on the road in the playoffs. 

7. The Dallas Mavericks (44 – 38)

The Mavericks had a good offseason following a catastrophic finish to last year’s regular season. They brought in several quality role players and drafted a couple of guys that they expect to be able to have an impact this year. Predicting the Mavs to make the playoffs is just a bet on the talent of Luka Doncic. I believe Luka is good enough to will an undermanned roster to about 45 wins and hold off some of the younger up and coming squads. In the NBA having the best player on the court matters more than in most other team sports and Luka is a top 5 player in the league so that Mavs will have that advantage in most games. 

The Mavs could be a swing team if they get off to a hot start I could see them taking a swing and moving some assets to bring in a defensive wing or a rim protecting lob catching center and if things go really bad they could end up dealing Kyrie Irving. 

8. The Oklahoma City Thunder (42 – 40)

The Thunder have maybe the most exciting young core of talent in the NBA and people are optimistic that they’ll take a big step forward. I think they will take a small step forward mostly because the teams in front of them aren’t exactly clearing the runway for OKC to make a run to the top of the west. I have high hopes for Chet and I think he will be a big reason they win a lot of games this year but besides Chet the Thunder are lacking in size and front court talent and I think that will hurt them in matchups with the leagues best big men. 

I’ll be interested to see if Sam Presti cashes in some of their picks for some win now players and tries to level up this team if they feel like they are just a piece or 2 away from true contention but I think most likely they will treat this year as a free roll and see what they have in the young core before really ramping up next year. 

9. The Memphis Grizzlies (41 – 41)

In a western conference where it feels like every team except Portland got better this off season the Grizzlies are my pick to suffer the most. I really like them essentially replacing Dillon Brooks (a fake good player) with Marcus Smart (an actual good player) but with Ja missing the first 25 games with a suspension and Stephen Adams out for possibly the entire regular season I think they will be diminished. People point to the fact that the Grizzlies are historically very good without Ja but most of those games were 2 years ago and I think they will under .500 without Ja and then when he returns they’ll have to claw their way back up the standings.

The Grizzlies are well run and well coached even if he determined to behave irresponsibly off the court Ja Morant is one of the best players in the NBA so once he is back they could go on an impressive win streak but they with Adams and Clarke both hurt they’re center position is going to be liability in every matchup and I think puts a cap on their ceiling. 

10. The New Orleans Pelicans (38 – 44)

If the Pelicans can get 1 healthy season from Zion Williamson they could be the ones at the top of standings instead of the Timberwolves and the Kings. Sadly it is not reasonable to expect Zion to have a healthy season so instead I am hoping he plays around 60 games and that is enough to get the Pelicans into the play-in and hopefully the actual playoffs.

The Trey Murphy injury hurts them but it does open an opportunity for Dyson Daniels to get some run and show what he has got. I also would like to see the Pelicans get a real point guard on the team to handle the ball and organize the team on the floor in a way that CJ McCollum just can’t. With a healthy Zion and Ingram this is a team that nobody wants to see but if they can’t get those guys on the court then they’ll be an easy out. 

11. The Los Angeles Clippers (37 – 45)

The Clippers have the star power to go head to head with anyone. Kawhi is so good that before he got hurt in the playoffs last year the Clippers were on their way to upsetting the heavily favored Suns. But the injuries are a problem, I’ve mentioned 65 as a key amount of games for Lebron, Steph and Durent to play and I don’t feel like Clippers stars can be relied on to play in 55 games so this great team on paper will frequently be the Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell and that just isn’t enough to be one of the top teams in the west. 

12. The Houston Rockets (33 – 49)

I have the Houston Rockets at 12 because out of the other bottom 4 teams they are the only one that really wants to win this year. They brought in the pervert Ime Udoka and signed Fred Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks try to mold this collection of young prospects into an actual basketball team. I think that they will be much better than last year but I don’t know how much that will show up in the win column as they will be over matched in almost every game. 

I am interested to see how Jaylen Green and Jabari Smith play in a more organized setting and I think Amen Thompson will be one of the most exciting rookies in the league. I think that the Rockers may be disappointed by their win total but if their young core looks good playing actual basketball that will be a successful season. 

13. The Utah Jazz (32 – 50)

I think the Jazz will follow a similar pattern to what they did last year where they will be very competitive to start the year and as the season goes on they will fall down the standings as they trade their good players and allow their young guys to play and develop. The Strategy worked well for them last year and worked over the last few years for OKC. 

I think that Will Hardy is too good of coach to allow the Jazz to be at the absolute bottom standings but they will be at such a talent disadvantage every night that they will find themselves well out of the playoff picture. 

14. The San Antonio Spurs (28 – 54)

This year for the Spurs is all about Wembanyama. Everyone else on the Spurs is basically auditioning for a spot one the future actually good Spurs team. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson seem like good wings to have around a player like Wemby but if Wemby wants to be a power forward then then I’d like to see someone more reliable than Zach Collins at center and as intrigued as Jeremy Sochan is I think it would be good for the Spurs to have an actual point guard to help set up their new franchise player with some easy buckets. (maybe look for Chris Paul to end up on the Spurs if the Warriors get off to a slow start) 

The Spurs should be interesting but not good enough to be anywhere near the playoffs nor should they want to be. Being too good too quickly is a sneaky way to hurt your rebuild

15. The Portland Blazers (17 – 65) 

The Blazers are the undisputed number 1 seed in this year’s tankathon. They actually have a lot of interesting players but they have made their intentions clear that they are at the very beginning of a rebuild. I expect Malcom Brogdon and Robert Williams to be shipped off to contenders before the trade deadline. 

If Scoot, Simons, Sharpe and Ayton gel well then maybe this will be a quick rebuild if they don’t then maybe one or two of them get traded and it’s a long rebuild. Either way they’ll be very bad this year. 

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The keyword this season will be parity if teams want to make the playoffs they are going to have to bring their A game every night because besides Portland and Charlotte there will be no easy wins on the schedule. 

Pt 2 will have my predictions for the major awards and the eventual champions.