The NBA awards are great because fans can start arguing about them at halftime of game #1. I might have given away a few of my award predictions in part one of my predictions but here are my official predictions for this years NBA awards. I’ll also include a dark horse candidate for each award and by dark horse I don’t mean second more likely guy to win the award I mean long shot candidate that has a chance.
The MVP
Nikola Jokic
Jokic is currently in the middle of one of the greatest 5 year stretches in the history of the NBA. Last year he would have won the MVP if he wasn’t being penalized for having won the MVP the 2 previous years. Jokic effortlessly puts up incredible stat lines and any time he is on the floor he turns his 4 teammates into an elite offensive unit. The Nuggets should cruise to 1 seed in the west and probably have the best record in the NBA and voters will feel obligated to pay Jokic back for not giving him the year before. Also out of all the stars in the league I think Jokic is among the least likely to be sidelined by injury and take games off, the guy just plays he is the only MVP since Kobe to play every game in an MVP season.
The only way I don’t see Jokic getting his 3rd MVP is if he takes a big time backseat in the Nuggets offense in favor of allowing Murray and Porter Jr to have bigger roles but even then I think his game is so malleable that if he chooses to be a facilitator for the other scorers on the team he might do that so well at that he could be the MVP anyway.
Dark horse candidate
Donovan Mitchell
There is a version of this NBA season where the Bucks and the Celtics underwhelm as they try to integrate new players and coaches and it is actually the Cavs who find themselves at the top of the East standings. Unlike the other top teams in the East the Cavs have a lot of continuity and they filled their major weakness at small forward with multiple signings. Mitchell is the clear cut best player on the team and I think now in his second year on the team he will be even more empowered to take his game to the next level and have a prime Damian Lillard season type of production. Now you may be saying Dame never won MVP and that is true but Dame never had teammates as good as Darius Garland and Evan Mobley to help him be the #1 seed which really matters to voters.
Defensive Player of the Year
Bam Adebayo
It is kind of shocking that Bam hasn’t won this award while being maybe the best defender in the NBA for the past 3 years. He hasn’t been quiet about being overlooked either as he is good for a salty quote every year after award season. I think the campaigning plays off and this is the year when he finally gets the recognition he deserves.
Bam is a perfect defender for today’s NBA where he can actually defend 1-5 (unless the 5 is Jokic). I think another factor is that Jaren Jackson Jr who won the award over Bam last year and will be his biggest competition for the award this year has been exposed for his weak rebounding and without Stephen Adams I think that flaw in his game will be more apparent this year. Also I think the voters are kind of over giving the award to help defending merchants like Giannis and Gobert.
Dark Horse Candidate
Victor Wembanyama
Wembanyama might be the greatest defensive force to ever play basketball. In an NBA were long range shooting has neutralized the effectiveness of big rim protectors now there is a player who will be able to protect the rim from 3 point shooters. Wemby’s ability to appear to be in drop coverage and then spring forward and block jump shots might be his greatest skill and if he is able to average a crazy amount of blocks he could win the DPOY.
Rookie of the Year
Chet Holmgren
Victor Wembanyama is currently the favorite but there is another incredibly long rookie who will be contending for the rookie of the year. I am picking Chet because I think that Chet being 2 years older than Victor will prove to be a greater advantage this season than Victor being 3 inches taller than Chet. Also for some reason team success is now being factored into rookie of the year voting and I think Chet will be on the better team and he will be a big reason why they are a good team
Dark Horse Candidate
Keyonte George
If the Jazz choose to go all in on their team of the future that could open up a large role for Keyonte George. While other rookies will have to compete with other young stars on their team for touches, George will be playing with Lauri Markenenn and Walker Kessler who are both play finishers who can play off the ball. I see a version of the season where George is a contender for the ROY thanks to sheer volume.
Coach of the Year
Quin Snyder
Seeing Trae Young and the Hawks under a good coach will be a different experience for NBA fans this year. Quin Snyder is a great tactician who has demonstrated the ability to scheme up an offense that suits whatever personnel he has at his disposal. This award typically goes to the coach of the team that over achieves their preseason expectations and I think the Hawks are flying under the radar in a season where a lot of teams are really feeling themselves. Also Snyder is owed a Coach of the Year award for the 2021 season where Jazz were the best team in the regular season after their 2 best players had a dramatic falling out.
I am writing this shortly after the Hawks just lost to the Hornets which is admittedly tough to stomach but last year the Nuggets lost their first game to the Jazz so I have to try to keep a good perspective and stick to my guns.
Dark Horse Candidate
Darko Rajakovic
If the Raptors are actually good after years of being a frustratingly mediocre team that was having not so secret battles with their last head coach then Darko will get a lot of credit. This is a team full of well known players and nobody expects them to make any noise this year and if they do people won’t be clamoring for Pascal Siakam to be the MVP so that sets Darko up nicely to contend for the award.
Sixth Man of the Year
Davion Mitchell
I think sixth man of the year is wide open this year. It’s a tricky award because players that are good enough to be considered will frequently be upgraded to the starting unit and then disqualify themselves from the award. Quickley and Brogdon, the top 2 from last year have a decent shot at starting a lot of games for their teams. Also similar to rookie of the year for some reason team success has been factored into this award recently. So when I look at the teams I expect to be good and I look at the players I expect to almost exclusively come off the bench. Davion Mitchell stuck out as someone who will have a big role on the Kings as they embark to prove that they are a legit team in the west and he will almost exclusively be coming off the bench.
Dark Horse Candidate
Christian Braun
The Nuggets bench has always been viewed as a weak link (this was possibly on purpose to inflate Nikola Jokic’s on/off numbers) and after the Nuggets lost Bruce Brown and Jeff Green the Nuggets bench depth is now viewed as a glaring weakness. If Braun steps up and stabilizes that unit he will get a lot of buzz for this award as a key contributor to what I expect to be the best team in the league.
Most Improved Player
I’m not picking this award MIP is sham award and criteria makes no sense
Finals Prediction
Nuggets over Bucks in 7
I know I am very brave for going out on a limb and picking the Nuggets and the Bucks to make the finals but this matchup truly feels inevitable to me. Which I actually hate to say because I think acting like anything is a sure things in sports is terrible analysis, the most entertaining stories in sports are the under dogs beating the odds. However these two teams lead by two all time great players surrounded by well built complimentary teams feel destined to meet in the finals and have a showdown to determine the best of the best in the NBA.
Both teams will have to earn it. The Bucks have a bogeyman in the East in the Miami Heat who they’ll have to beat or hope someone else beats in order to make the finals and Celtics will likely be their toughest opponent. The Nuggets will have to hold off several teams led by Hall of Fame superstars who have been gearing up all offseason to beat them specifically.
The Dishwasher 
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