When the Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes it seemed like they had put the finishing touches on an excellent rotation with 2 of the best pitchers by ERA last season in Burnes and Bradish at the top, a rising star in Grayson Rodriguez, a former All Star now almost 2 years off his Tommy John surgery in John Means and a solid 4 ERA guy as the 5th starter in Dean Kremer.
There were posts on Twitter and Instagram asking if Bradish and Burns were the best pitching duo in Baseball and if the Orioles now had the best rotation in the league. Which as an Orioles fan was very exciting because in my entire life as an Orioles fan we’ve never had the starting rotation be a strength of the team (before this era of Orioles baseball the best pitcher we had that I could actually remember was probably Chris Tillman since I was a little too young to remember Erik Bedard)
But on the first day of camp the injury report came out that Kyle Bradish had suffered a UCL sprain and will start the season on IR and that John Means was behind in his throwing program and will likely miss the first month of the season. So the rotation went from 2-3 great pitchers and 2 solid pitchers to 1-2 great pitchers, 1 solid pitcher and 2 question marks. Needless to say the Orioles rotation without Bradish and Means will not be getting any Instagram graphics made or MLB TV runtime.
I am not a doctor so I don’t want to waste too much time speculating on when these guys will actually return but I do want to spend some time speculating on when these guys will return.
For Kyle a UCL sprain is not necessarily the worst thing in the world but it is the kind of injury that if it gets worse it could turn into a tear and/or possibly require Tommy John surgery which would put him out of commission for at least a year. Elias for his part has so far refused to put a timeline for Bradish’s return opting to instead saying things like “I am confident he will pitch for us in 2024” which could mean he rejoins the team in May or that he would hope to join the team just in time to make the postseason roster which is a big difference, the no time table comments make me a little nervous because it wouldn’t be the most unusual thing for the front office to give us vague press conference after vague press conference until he’s missed the whole season. As a fan you hope it’s not too serious and that he returns as soon as possible but you also don’t want him to push himself because he feels like he needs to get back and then hurt himself much worse and we lose him for 2024 and 2025 as a result.
Means is an interesting case because it seems like a not too serious injury because they keep using the terms “delayed” and “behind” which to me makes it sound like he is not currently injured but that he is still recovering from an injury from last year that made it so he couldn’t start his throwing program on time. But besides this most recent injury what I worry about with Means is that he worked for a long time to come back from Tommy John and then he got hurt at the end of last season and had to miss the playoffs and now apparently that “flare-up” he had back in September was serious enough that it will make it so he starts 2024 on the IR. So if you look back at the last few years, Means has made 6 starts since the 2021 season ended and I don’t think the Orioles can bank on him coming back from this injury and being healthy the rest of the year. I think the Orioles would be wise to operate as if Means will be out indefinitely and then anything he is able to give them after he recovers from the injury will be seen as a bonus.
So with the starting rotation going from strength to serious concern after just one day I want to look at the Orioles options for filling those 2 rotation spots.
In House Options
Tyler Wells
2023 Stats: ERA: 3.64 | WHIP: 0.986 | ERA+: 113 | FIP: 4.98 | K/9: 8.9
Tyler Wells is the most obvious candidate to get one of the available rotation spots.Wells had a really good first half of the season where he was arguably the Orioles best starter going into the All Star break and was leading MLB in WHIP despite the fact that he was giving up a lot of home runs. In the second half, arm fatigue set in and his effectiveness as a starter took a dive resulting in him being sent down to the minors to rehab before eventually returning to the big league team as a reliever. After seeing him so dramatically and suddenly running out of gas after just a half a season of work as a starter at what should be his physical peak made me feel like despite his talent that it is probably just too much to ask him to be full time starter who can get the ball once every 5 days all season and then continue being effective into the postseason.
But if the assignment is hold down a rotation spot for a couple of months until Bradish recovers from his injury and then ultimately return to the pen then I think Tyler Wells is our guy.
Cole Irvin
2023 Stats: ERA: 4.42 | WHIP: 1.280 | ERA+: 93 | FIP: 4.43 | K/9: 7.9
Cole Irvin is another decent option to fill in for either Means or Bradish. He has a lower ceiling than what Wells offers as what just show up on any day and pitching a gem but what he does as an advantage over Wells is that his last two seasons in Oakland he showed he could take on a full season workload as a starter and do it with good although not eye popping numbers. His last year in Oakland he made 30 starts and had a sub 4 ERA which would be pretty good numbers for back of the rotation starter
He got off to a poor start last year and was sent down to the minors and when he came up he was mostly a bullpen guy although he did make a few spot starts and had some good outings, this offseason there have been reports that he has been working on a new sweeper and a new sinker to add to his pitch mix. I wouldn’t blame the Orioles if they preferred Irvin over Wells as someone that could end up having to pitch the entire season as a starter if either the Means or Bradish injury are more serious than we think.
Here are some other names that the Orioles could potentially slot in if for some reason they don’t want to use either Wells or Irvin. Which they might do if they decide that either of them, but Wells especially, are too key to the bullpen to use as a starter.
40 Man Options
These guys are already on the roster so they have the easiest path to getting a starting spot should it come to that. Just because they are on the 40 man means that they are better than some prospects that haven’t been added yet. I think if some of these guys were cut or traded for cash tomorrow they would not be sorely missed but they’re on the roster so it makes sense to keep an eye on them as options.
Also I have got to say that as I went on to write about the other options as far as people outside the organization that we could trade for and sign the thought of any of these next 9 guys being the answer for the Orioles this season would make me very sad.
Bruce Zimmerman
The last time the Orioles tried to use him as a starter he put up a 5.99 ERA and gave up 21 home runs in 13 starts.
Mike Baumann
He’s only made 4 big league starts ever but he just had a pretty good season as a reliever where by a lot of numbers he was an above average pitcher. He was a starter coming up through the minors and always had pretty good numbers so it wouldn’t be out of the question that the O’s give him another shot to start.
Seth Johnson
He’s on the 40 man and but he’s never pitched in the big leagues or even above AA so I think I am wasting my time even writing this but he’s technically an option.
Jonathan Heasley
Heasley is another longshot for the job but he did start 21 games in 2021 for the Royals which is more starts in a single season than any of these other longshots. He put up a 7.20 ERA as a reliever last year so the Orioles trading for him is the kind of thing where you are hoping some scout saw something interesting that they could tweak and make him more effective but I don’t see him being the Orioles solution for their rotation situation.
Matt Krook
I’m including this because as I’m writing this the Orioles traded for Matt Krook and I looked at his numbers and he put up a 24.25 ERA last year LMAO. Anyway he’s probably not the answer either.
Keegan Akin
I’d rather see what Matt Krook has got.
Non 40 man options
These guys are less likely to be the ones that Orioles choose to fill in the gaps in the rotation but they are much more exciting prospects than the likes of Jonathan Heasley and Matt Krook and there is certainly a part of me that would rather see one of these guys get called up and crash and burn rather than roll Bruce Zimmerman so he can pitch to his career 5.50 ERA.
Justin Armbruester
Armbruester is a prospect that has decent numbers in 47 starts over the last 2 years in various levels of the minor leagues. Although if you look at his most recent AAA numbers it is apparent he struggled a little bit with that jump. That can happen when someone moves up midseason though so I wouldn’t rule out an impressive camp and fast start in AAA this results in him getting some starts to help fill in the gap.
Chayce McDermott
The prize of the Trey Mancini trade Mcdermott was actually really good last year especially after getting called up to AAA Norfolk which feels like a good sign compared to Armburester who struggled after getting called up. It’s all pretty small sample size so similar to Armbruester, if Mcdermott has a good camp and a fast start to his year in AAA then he could be the one to come up and catch some starts while the rotation is on life support.
Cade Povich
Of the minor leaguers Povich, the actual target of the Jorge Lopez trade, is probably the furthest away from the Majors. He hasn’t exactly been dominant at any level of the minors but he has looked good enough to continue to move up through the system and with his age and upside I’m sure the Orioles would love for him to be the one who shines in spring training so that they could fast track him to the Majors.
Outside the Organization Options
Now this is the option that really gets the blood pumping so maybe it is a mistake to mention Matt Krook and Keegan Akin before I talk about potentially trading for Jesus Luzardo but that’s just how it happens sometimes.
Wells and Irvin are the 2 actual major league starters who you could plug and play in the rotation and as I said before they are both around average so I think if you are going to make a trade or a signing you want whoever you trade for to be the level of player that would be significantly better than both Wells and Irvin so that you don’t send out a starter trade package and end up with a middle innings reliever which is kind of what happened when they traded for Irvin. That is a risk of playing it too safe when you are making trades and you don’t want to give away your top top prospects so you just end up giving away good prospects and not really getting anything back that moves the needle.
My point is that if the Orioles choose to trade for a starter it should be another big move it should be someone who even if everyone was healthy would push Kremer or Means out of the rotation and it should be a big move because the Orioles won 101 games last year, they have a young core that is getting better and it would make no sense to take a step back and year off from contending because of injuries.
Who Then
Jesus Luzardo
2023 Stats: ERA: 3.58 | WHIP: 1.215 | ERA+: 125 | FIP: 3.55 | K/9: 10.5
Years of Team Control: 3
Jesus Luzardo is my absolute favorite option for the Orioles to trade for. He has turned in back to back excellent seasons and he’s been getting better every year and he is just 26 so it’s reasonable to think that we haven’t even seen the best version of him. Last year was his first year where he pitched a full starters workload and it was great to see his numbers stay very similar while his innings almost doubled. I think it is often difficult for pitchers their first time pitching into the high 100’s of innings so coming back this year I would expect him to be even better.
As far as whether the Marlins actually trade him it is a little tricky. He has 3 years of team control left on his deal and the Marlins just made the playoffs so it’s not as though they are looking at the future thinking that they are better off taking a step back or that they will have no use of a really good pitcher. So from that perspective it is hard to imagine them sending him out.
On the other hand when you look at the Marlins playoff series loss they scored 2 runs in the whole series so if you are the Marlins GM you have to feel like adding offense is a priority. The Marlins have Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara who are both better than Luzardo they also have prospect Max Meyer the former #3 pick in the draft on the way as well as several other solid starters like Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and even Trevor Rodgers if he bounces back so it is possible that they may view Luzardo as expendable and use the fact that he very good and has a lot of control to cash in and get some impact offensive players.
I think there are a lot of ways this package could go if the Marlins want pro bats,I wouldn’t be surprised if names like Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle or even Santander were brought up by the Marlins. If they want prospects it could be Coby Mayo or Colton Cowser that they ask about. I wish I could be a fly on the wall when the front office is talking about where all our top prospects are going to play and who’s spots they are going to be taking and what the plan is for those players that are “blocking” the new guys. That’s probably a topic for another day. My point is that whether it is Pro guys or prospects the Orioles should be willing to listen, negotiate and pay up to get a pitcher like Jesus Luzardo in the building (also I realize that I said a bunch of names and I want be clear I don’t think they should trade all three of Tony, Hays and Mounty but like let’s talk about 1-2 of those guys and a prospect).
Dylan Cease
2023 Stats: ERA: 4.58 | WHIP: 1.418 | ERA+: 97 | FIP: 3.72 | K/9: 10.9
Years of Team Control: 2
Cease has been a hot name in connection to the Orioles for about a year now. If you are looking at his stats and thinking those are below average anyway you look at them then you are correct last year was not a great year for Cease. The idea of Cease as a valuable addition to a contender comes from his excellent 2022 season where he was the runner up in Cy Young. Now you can look at Cease’s career so far and see a 4 ERA pitcher who had a Linsanity run in 2022 or you can see a pitcher who was getting better and better and then had a bad 2023 on a White Sox team with terrible vibes.
I think the true Dylan Cease is somewhere between the 2.20 ERA Cy Young candidate from 2022 and the 4.58 trade target from 2023, meaning I think if he were to join the Orioles with their deep left field wall and elite defense I think he could easily have a low 3s ERA and have a lot of his advanced metrics bounce back closer to what they looked like in his best year and I think that he would be a valuable addition to the Orioles rotation in this time of need.
The issue is that the White Sox are determined to get a Cy Young haul for Dylan Cease and every report about negotiations between the Sox and really any team interested in Cease says that the Sox asking price has simply been too high. Like I mentioned just a few short sentences ago I think Cease is a good pitcher but I think it would be ridiculous for the the Orioles to have to give up multiple top prospects for a pitcher coming off their worst year as a starter. If I was Elias I would be looking to give up a package similar if not a little bit less than what the Orioles gave up for Corbin Burnes. Burnes is a much better pitcher but Cease has 2 years left on his deal so I think you could justify sending a couple of decent prospects to Chicago for 2 years of Cease. Connor Norby and Cade Povich for Dylan Cease let’s do this.
Shane Bieber
2023 Stats: ERA: 3.80 | WHIP: 1.234 | ERA+: 110 | FIP: 3.87 | K/9: 7.5
Years of Team Control: 1
I’ve liked Bieber for a long time and even though it seems like he’s been declining for a couple of years now I think he’d be a really good addition to the rotation. I think a lot of his struggles last year were due to injury and if the Orioles could get him back to his 2022 self let alone his 2020 Cy Young self that would be huge. I know it’s like baseball propaganda 101 but there’s been videos of him throwing this offseason that look really good, it seems like he’s hoping to get some velo back which should help him get his strikeout rate back to what it was when he was one of the best pitchers in the league.
With him being in his last year combined with the fact that he’s come off a less than stellar season should make him pretty affordable on the trade market. Also Cleveland doesn’t have a real reason to hold onto him their signature move is never paying guys (again this is who John Angelos was always saying he wanted to model the Orioles after) so most likely will not be the ones to pay him when he hits free agency and even though the AL Central is weak I don’t think they should be holding onto Bieber in anticipation of a playoff run so trading him seems like the obvious move.
Connor Norby and a couple of prospects I’ve never head of and we call it a deal what do you say Cleveland? Also I am sorry for hypothetically trading Connor Norby in every deal. It’s for his own good so that he can get a chance to be an everyday starter.
Jordan Montgomery
2023 Stats: ERA: 3.20 | WHIP: 1.193 | ERA+: 138 | FIP: 3.56 | K/9: 7.9
Free Agent
Montgomery is coming off the best year of his career and is a true free agent that nobody has signed. Honestly I have to repent for my Jordan Montgomery opinions if you look back at the my trade deadline blog I said that I’d rather have Jack Flaherty than Jordan Montgomery and that could not have been more wrong and Montgomery really twisted the knife in me pitching a gem against the Orioles in the playoffs while Flaherty did absolutely nothing for us. Anyway my poor opinion came from watching him in New York and always feeling like he was a pretty unremarkable starter but watching him pitch for the Rangers last year he felt pretty remarkable so to Jordan Montgomery I apologize I thought I was familiar with your game but I was in fact not familiar with your game.
As fas as his salary expectations it’s not well reported what Montgomery is asking for he’s 31, looks better than ever and was just a stud on a world series team so good luck telling him he doesn’t deserve a huge contract. Spotrac projects he him to get a similar contract to that of Chris Bassitt and Joe Musgrove which is to say between 3-5 years at 17-21 million a year. Now I still have small market brain so when I see numbers like that I think “if we sign a free agent contract like that we won’t able to afford top extend our best guys” but the Orioles have a new owner that presumably is ready and able to spend some money so it would be cool to see a “The Orioles and Jordan Montgomery have agreed to a 3 year 65 Million Dollar contract” notification.
Blake Snell
2023 Stats: ERA: 2.25 | WHIP: 1.189 | ERA+: 182 | FIP: 3.44 | K/9: 11.7
Free Agent
Snell is now a 2 time Cy Young winner and I am sure that the reason that he is yet to be signed is that being a 2 time Cy Young winner and a true free agent means you can ask for an unspeakable amount of money which is probably what Snell is doing. Snell is 31 and the only reason it feels like teams aren’t falling over themselves to give him the Gerritt Cole contract is that he does have a history of nagging injuries that have lead to him not logging full starter workloads in most of his seasons and he does have a reputation for not getting deep into games. Basically with Snell the story is if he’s healthy for a whole season he might be the best pitcher in the league but that is a huge IF.
Again as someone who has been of the mindset that a bad free agent signing might kill his team I would be nervous to give Snell a big contract even if you assume the Rubenstein is going to act like Steve Cohen what kind of sunk the Mets is that they signed a bunch of massive contracts to older players and very quickly are now in a rebuild again. That being said the Orioles are the kind of team that should be looking to sign a 31 year old Cy Young winner they won 101 games last year and they have a really small payroll they could afford to give him maybe a shorter deal at a really high AAV that comes off the books when it gets time to extend players like Adley and Gunnar. At the end of the day it’s not my money so I say spend it!
If I were in control of the Orioles front office I would try to bring in one more of these guys from outside the organization and then let the best of Wells and Irvin take the 5th spot in the rotation to start the year. So the rotation looks like this
Burnes – Rodriguez – Kremer – (Outside hire) – Irvin or Wells
Then once we are in a few months in if we get Bradish and Means back the rotation would look like this:
Burnes – Bradish – Rodriguez – (Outside Hire) – Kremer or Means
Anyway, hopefully the front office isn’t feeling too complacent after trading for Burnes and they keep making moves to make sure that the Orioles are in the best possible position to defend their 2023 AL East title and then make a real playoff run.
The Dishwasher 
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