We are just 2 weeks away from the Orioles’ last spring training game and the competition between position players to decide who will get the last up in the air 26 man roster spots is heating up. There are veterans who have been with the team for years competing with top prospects who appear to be the future of the team, competing with former prospects competing with veterans recently signed to small free agent deals and there are really only 4 total spots available.
Most teams divy up the 26 man roster spots evenly between pitchers and position players every now and then you’ll see a team lean 12-14 in one direction if they feel like that makes sense for them but I would expect the O’s to go into the season with 13 position players on the roster. Most of those 13 spots are already spoken for and no amount of spring training success could change that, those guys are (just going around the diamond):
- Adley Rutschman
- James McCann (you need at least 2 catchers)
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Ryan O’Hearn
- Jordan Westburg
- Gunnar Henderson
- Austin Hays
- Cedric Mullins
- Anthony Santander
So that leaves the O’s with 4 remaining position player spots, here are all the players at camp seriously competing for those spots (again going around the diamond):
- Coby Mayo
- Jackson Holiday
- Connor Norby
- Jorge Mateo
- Ramon Urias
- Colton Cowser
- Heston Kjertsad
- Kyle Stowers
- Ryan Mckenna
I think that realistically from these 9 the O’s are going to pick 2-3 infielders and 1-2 outfielders and in looking to determine who will get those last spots I am going to start with the guys that have been with the Major League team the longest.
The Familiar Faces
Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo have both been a big part of the turnaround in Birdland over the past 2 years. They are both excellent defenders, Urias has a gold glove to prove it and Mateo was robbed of his gold glove in 2022. They are also both very versatile defenders, Urias has played every single position in the infield including first base for the O’s and Mateo can play both the infield and the outfield.
As far as the offense goes Urias is about a league average hitter while Mateo is well below average but makes up for that in part by being one of the biggest stolen base threats in baseball over the last few years. Mateo also possesses the ability to get scorching hot and when it’s all clicking look like one of the best players in the league and while it’s not smart to bank on him doing that it is nice to have someone on the bench who could maybe go sicko mode if you needed them to.
So you can definitely see the appeal in keeping these guys around as utility bench players, they can both be trusted to play good to great defense at a variety of positions and they are better than a zero on offense. They also have the advantage of being incumbents on the roster and they are both out of options so if the Orioles decide to go elsewhere they would have to DFA Urias and Mateo and they are both good enough that it isn’t likely they would clear waivers.
So these 2 have the inside track but the argument for moving on from them is to make room for the future. In a world where there are multiple top 100 prospects in AAA do you really have room on your 26 man for 2 players that only fit on the roster as utility bench players? You could argue that having versatile bench players is maybe more useful to a contender than an inexperienced prospect taking his lumps who may or may not stick but we can’t just let these prospects celebrate their 30th birthday in Norfolk because we are afraid of losing these 2 utility infielders.
As I try to get into the mind of Mike Elias and the front office I am reminded that this front office tends to err on the side of caution with these call ups. I think the following equation is what will help keep Urias and Mateo on the opening day roster.
If they decide to make a big splash and move on from Urias and Mateo in favor of whichever prospect then they will lose Urias and Mateo when they DFA them and if the prospect doesn’t work out or there is an injury then they won’t have those reliable gloves to back them up.
On the other side if they keep Urias and Mateo on the roster for opening day then they can always call up the prospects later and maybe when there is an injury or something and then they get to keep all their players.
The only thing that makes me pause on that theory is that the Orioles signed Kolton Wong and Nick Maton, both of whom will almost assuredly start the season in AAA as in case of emergency major league depth. The fact that these two veterans were recently added leads me to believe that maybe the front office is preparing to move on from Urias or Mateo and they want to make sure they have Major League veterans on the 40 man so if there are cluster injuries or the prospects are busts they don’t have to hastily sign Rougned Odor out of Japan.
Anyway I’ve been talking about these 2 like they are a package deal because their situations are similar but in reality it may come down to the Orioles choosing 1 of these guys to be the utility infielder and saying goodbye to the other.
The Top Prospects
Jackson Holiday, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad are prospects 1, 19, 30 and 32 on the MLB pipeline top 100. They were all in AAA last year and they are all playing somewhere between good and very good in spring training this year.
Cowser and Kjerstad both got a cup of coffee in the Majors at the end of last season so it feels like their natural career progression would be for them to make the opening day roster this season but as I covered in my who’s blocked series there is a crowded outfield in Baltimore and it is pretty irregular although not unheard of for a team to carry 5 outfielders but it would be a tight fit for them both to make it.
Right now Mayo has an OPS of 1.029 in spring training and is making a strong case to make that opening day roster despite starting off as something of a longshot to make the team coming into spring training but unless the Orioles feel comfortable with him as an everyday third baseman this year then he also faces a difficult position crunch with Mountcastle and O’Hearn already entrenched at first and if you though carrying 5 outfielders was odd then rostering 3 first basemen would be even more strange.
Holiday got off to a slow start but has been tearing it up for the last week and half and if you look at the list of guys who are locks to make the roster you’ll notice there are not quite enough infielders to fill out a starting lineup so there is an obvious spot for him. I think it would also be a big victory for the front office for the surprise first overall pick they took out of highschool in 2022 could make the opening day roster 18 months later at 20 years old. The only reasons I can see for Holiday to not be on the roster would be if the coaches and front office were worried about him getting off to rough start and having to be sent down and what that would do for his confidence or if the O’s are trying to get away with some service time manipulation.
Out of these 4 I would say Holiday and Cowser are the 2 most likely to make that opening day roster. Even though Kjerstad was drafted the year before Cowser his heart condition set him back and so Cowser is ahead of him in line but that doesn’t necessarily matter when it comes to putting the best team on the field. What matters more is that Cowser has been incredible in spring training and it looks like he has made the necessary adjustments after his rocky start in the Majors last year and Kjerstad has looked pretty pedestrian so far.
Mayo and Holiday have both been tearing it up in spring training and the reason that I would say Holiday is ahead of Mayo is because there is a clearer path for him to start but I think there is definitely a world where they both make it.
I will say that I have referenced spring training a lot in this section and I should say that I don’t think that the front office is going to make roster decisions based on spring training OPS but I do think that these guys have done their time in AAA and have been good at every level of the minors so spring training against some major league pitchers is kind of the last possible test to for them to pass even if everyone know that the rule of spring training is don’t believe what you are seeing.
The Longshots
Kyle Stowers has been lighting it up in spring training so far this year. He looks healthy and comfortable, he has shown a lot of power and he has absolutely killed left handed pitching which is something that this Orioles lineup could definitely use.
The issue with Stowers is that he had his shot last year and didn’t stick the landing and now more highly regarded prospects like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjertsad have caught up to him and are ready to be called up and it is hard to justify having Stowers on the roster over either of them.
It would be great to see Stowers get another chance to impress and with him already being on the 40 man it wouldn’t be overly difficult to make happen but it seems unlikely that it will come at the expense of the Orioles top prospects. Stowers will likely have to wait for an injury or a trade to create the space on the roster for him to get his shot.
Norby is the most blocked of any of the Orioles prospects with both Westburg and Holiday ahead of him for second base so it is hard to see him making the roster over either of those players but he has hit very well in the few at bats he’s had so I feel comfortable saying that if Holiday, Westburg, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad didn’t exist that Orioles fans would be very excited about Connor Norby but those guys do exist so it’s hard to see Norby getting a spot on this crowded roster. Similar to Stowers he will wait in AAA for trade or injury to clear a path for him to some major league playing time.
I’ll also include Ryan McKenna in this section even though he is not a perfect fit but he doesn’t fit in the next section because he has performed admirably in the 4th outfielder role (minus one game vs the Red Sox ) and I wouldn’t be too surprised if the the front office decides to keep him around in the once a week starter/late inning defensive replacement role.
Obviously it would be disappointing if top prospects like Cowser or Kjerstad had to spend more time in the minors in favor of more Ryan McKenna but the 4th outfielder role where you don’t play everyday is tricky mentally. You can’t get into an everyday rhythm and you know that your at bats are going to be limited so it is hard to maintain a good approach at the plate. All that makes it not actually a great role for a top prospect who needs to find their footing so I can definitely see why the front office might choose to keep McKenna in that role, that being said I think the better move is to choose 1 of Cowser or Kjerstad and try to get them in the lineup as much as possible by playing the other 3 outfielders at DH or resting them so that the new guys don’t have the typical 4th outfielder experience.
In final here is what I think the opening day roster will look like
I would call this one the most likely:
C: Adley Rutschman
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: Jackson Holiday
SS: Gunnar Henderson
3B: Jordan Westburg
LF: Colton Cowser
CF: Cedric Mullins
RF: Austin Hays
DH: Anthony Santander
Bench:
James McCann
Ryan O’Hearn
Jorge Mateo
Ramon Urias
The Dishwasher 
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