With the playoffs around the corner and 20 teams that will be participating in them all but locked in, I want to look at these 20 teams and try to sort out how much pressure each team is under.
Playoff pressure can come from many different sources, it can come from your best player potentially asking out if the team disappoints again, it can come from a front office having traded away all their draft picks, or a it can be on a single player who needs to prove themselves worthy of a contract or award they have received.
The way to relieve that pressure can be different for each team, some teams just need to win a round, some teams just need to make the finals and some teams are under pressure to win it all.
So we’re going to look at who’s under the most pressure, where that pressure is coming from and how they can relieve that pressure.
Tier 1: It’s now or never (or at least until 2030)
Teams: The Phoenix Suns – The Los Angeles Clippers
These 2 teams have both made win now move after win now move and most of their core players are at the tail end of their primes if not out of their prime and will only steadily get worse in the coming years so this year is the best chance they are going to have in a long time to win the finals.
I say win the finals because that is what both of these teams are built to do. Both teams have exhausted all their draft capital and gone WAY over the cap to build these teams because these owners desperately want to win. (Which is a good trait for owners to have I much prefer the Balmer/Ishbia type owner over the crying poor loser owners) but as much I applaud the ultra aggressive competitive owners that desire to be the best has caused them to push in all their chips in a rather reckless way where the future looks really bleak and if you ruin the future of the team AND don’t have a championship to show for it that is really hard to stomach which is why there is so much pressure on both of these teams.
The Suns
In 2021 the Suns lost in the NBA finals. It is always tough to lose the finals but they were one of the best stories of the season having gone from one of the worst teams in the league for the past decade to title contenders almost overnight. They had a team full of young players that they had drafted over the last few years and they had a full cabinet of draft picks to use in the draft or in trades to further build upon their young core.
Here is what they did over the next few years with the core of their 2021 team
Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson along with 4 first round picks, 2 second round picks and a pick swap became Kevin Durant
Chris Paul along with 4 first round pick swaps, and 5 second round picks became Bradley Beal
Deandre Ayton became Jusuf Nurkic and Grayson Allen
The Suns also reswapped their pick swaps in some cases multiple times making sure that even in the years where they will have a draft pick because of the Stepien rule they WILL be a bad ones. They have 1 second round pick that may or may not convey from the Celtics and if it does convey it will likely be pick 55+.
So the Suns are all in on this year. Kevin Durant is 35 and is having a great season but is simply not what he was even a few years ago in Brooklyn, Bradley Beal is 30, has barely played this year and has maybe the worst contract in the league and Jusuf Nurkic is Jusuf Nurkic. None of these guys are going to get better over the next few years, the Suns are over every salary cap, apron or ceiling the league has put in place so they won’t be able to sign a big free agent and they have no draft picks they use to get better.
This is the best team the Suns will have before they inevitably have to go into a rebuild when KD either requests a trade or retires and it’s not going to be a quick rebuild it’s going to be one of the most painful rebuilds the league has ever seen.
So they are under more pressure than anyone else to win it all this year. Pressure because of what they gave up to get the team that they have and pressure because of what their future looks like if they don’t win it. The pressure is on Matt Ishbia and the front office for having gone all in on this year as well as KD, Booker and Beal to try to prove that they were worth betting on to that extent.
It’s a tough spot to be in because they have by far the most pressure to win it all this year and they have an incredibly difficult and unlikely road just to get to the finals. If the playoffs started today they would be in the play-in tournament matched up against the Dallas Mavericks. Still as a Nuggets fan as I look at the teams in the bottom half of the bracket to match up with I think the Suns are the team I’d least want to see so I’d say they have a puncher’s chance to get out of the West. I just think when you trade away everything the Suns traded away you’d like for your team to have better than a puncher’s chance.
The Clippers
The Clippers are in a very similar situation to the Suns. Over the past few years they have continued to trade away picks and young players. It’s interesting because they made their all in move for PG and Kawhi in 2019 so you would think that by now in 2024 they might be looking at a newly full cabinet of picks to make moves with but instead they have made move after move to make sure that their future is in jeopardy. I won’t go back through all the moves they’ve made over the last 5 years but I think a good example is last year they traded their first round pick for 2 months of Eric Gordon (who immediately left in free agency) and that pick became Cam Whitmore and this year just when it seems like they may have a few picks opening up in the future they traded them all away for James Harden. As of today the Clippers won’t have a first or second round pick that is truly their own until 2030.
Anyway exactly how they got there aside today they have a core of older players in Kawhi Leonard (32), Paul George (33) and James Harden (34). These three guys are all at the tail end of their primes and it has been years since any of them had a completely healthy season. None of these guys are going to get better or healthier in the coming years but they are all good enough right now that if the Clippers don’t extend them on massive deals they will walk away and get max contracts elsewhere leaving the Clippers with nothing.
So this year’s Clippers team is the best the Clippers will be for many years and they are under a ton of pressure to win now before their core guys break down in the last few years of their incredibly expensive max extensions they are going to get this summer.
One element of pressure this Clippers team has is more individual pressure on some of their best players who have never won a championship. Paul George, James Harden and Russell Westbrook are all some of the best players to never win a championship and with all of them entering their mid 30s the clock is running out for them to check that box even if winning it as a 3rd or 4th option wouldn’t do the same thing for their reputations as winning it as “the guy” it is still a big deal and a big reason that they are all in LA sacrificing their own individual stats and accolades to try to win it all.
As far as how likely it is that they will win it all and relieve that pressure I think they are in a slightly better position than the Suns since they will most likely get homecourt in the first round and if the bracket falls their way they could get matched up with an inexperienced Thunder team in the second round and then once you are in the conference finals anything can happen.
I could also see them losing in the first round to the Pelicans so it’s not like their path is laid out cleanly right in front of them, it’s going to be a battle.
Tier 2: It’s now but maybe not quite never
Teams: The Milwaukee Bucks – The Minnesota Timberwolves
The theme for this tier are teams that have made all in moves that by definition put pressure on the team to win the championship this year but unlike the teams in tier 1 these teams have reason to believe that their team could possibly be better next year although the reason for optimism for these 2 teams is a bit different.
The Bucks
The Bucks are just as bankrupt of picks as the Suns and Clippers are and their stars Giannis (29), Dame (33), and Middleton (32) are up in that same age range as those teams but there are 2 reasons that the Bucks are not in tier 1. Reason number 1 is that they already won a championship in the Giannis era so at the very least if they flame out they can look back and say they left with something. Reason number 2 is that even though their stars are older I think they could be better next year. Damien Lillard has been good but not quite great which is what the Bucks were hoping for when they traded for him and while it is possible that he might be in the beginning stages of being washed I think some of the struggles are due to him adjusting to being on a new team after spending his entire career in Portland, it reminds me of how Mike Conley struggled his first year out of Memphis but after a terrible first year in Utah in his early 30s he bounced back and has been much better ever since even as he has entered his late 30s and I think it is reasonable to think that Dame could be better in his second year in Milwaukee than he has been so far in his first.
That being said, there is still a lot of pressure for the Bucks to win this year. Just like the Suns they have no forward moves left to make if they don’t win this year and while I think there is a chance that the Giannis – Dame pairing could be better next year after having developed more chemistry if they don’t win next year if they go out sad this year and then next year doesn’t look any better we could very quickly be looking down the barrel of a Giannis trade request.
So there is pressure based on the fact that they have leveraged their future to have the team they have now, there is pressure based on the fact that their best player might leave if this team doesn’t work out and there is also pressure in the sense that when you have a player like Giannis who has the potential to be finish his career as a top 20 player of all time then it is expected that you will make the most of having that player on your team and if the Bucks don’t win in the first few seasons with Dame then they will quickly be a team full of old and expensive stars with no draft picks to use to improve the team.
The Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have been very aggressive in building this team, they traded a lot of Rudy Gobert, then they traded for Mike Conley and NAW to help make the Rudy Gobert trade work and they also gave big extensions to Ant, Jaden McDaniels and KAT so they are an expensive team that has traded away a lot of draft capital.
With all these aggressive moves comes the pressure to win this year especially since Conley is 36 and Gobert is 31 and they are both really important to the team’ success and this year is the best that this version of the team will be. They have also put pressure on themselves by playing really well and being the 1 seed for most of the season.
The reason that they are not in tier 1 is because most of their players besides Conley are young and in their primes Ant (22), Jaden McDaniels (23), Naz Reid (24) and NAW (25) are all young enough that if the KAT and Gobert big man duo doesn’t work out the Wolves could deal those guys for picks and players and then work around that young core until they have their own picks again in 2028 and 2030 when those guys will be in their late 20s and in their actual primes.
Also despite the fact that their Gobert trade was widely criticized as being incredibly damaging to their future they have a lot more in the cupboard as far as future picks to make moves with. If they have a decent playoff run this year and they find they need to upgrade a role player they have multiple second round picks they can use and some distant firsts will be available soon. If they have a poor playoff run and it is clear that they won’t be able to win with KAT and Gobert together then they will most likely trade KAT and since he is a talented player in his prime they should be able to get a good return to improve and reshape their roster to better around Ant in his prime.
Tier 3: The Weight of Expectations
Teams: The Boston Celtics and the Denver Nuggets
(I promise not every tier is just 2 teams)
In this tier the type of pressure changes. In the previous tiers those teams were under pressure because of the way their front offices went about building their team, having sacrificed the future to build veteran teams to give themselves the best chance to win this year. These team’s core players are all in the prime of their career and these teams still have the majority of their own draft picks to continue to build upon these teams and have a long runway to success.
So where is the pressure coming from? It comes from these 2 team’s own success. If you ask an objective observer on the NBA this season they would tell you that the Boston Celtics have been by far the best team in the NBA this season and if you asked that same objective observer who the best player in the NBA is they would tell you that is Nikola Jokic. Whenever you have been identified as the best whether it is as a team or as a player there is pressure to come through on that notoriety or else be labeled a fraud.
This kind of pressure is different and some people might be tempted to say that this kind of pressure tops the organizational pressure that that the Suns and Clippers face but I would say that knowing that you’ll be able to run back your core for the next 5 years and know you’ll be one of the best teams in the league takes the edge off.
The Celtics
I would say of these 2 teams the Celtics are under slightly more pressure for a few different reasons.
Reason number 1 is simply that they have not won a championship with this core, some of their key role players like Al Horford and Jrue Holiday are in their mid-late 30s and the East is much weaker than the West so they should most likely coast to at least the ECF.
Over the past few years the Celtics have been one of if not the most consistently successful teams when it comes to making deep playoff runs as they have made the ECF in 5 of the last 7 years. Now they have only won 1 of those 5 series which may seem like a red flag but the truth is that the Celtics were just too young to get over the hump.
Through all of modern NBA history young teams do not win championships. You need your best players to have experience and be mature both mentally and physically to withstand 4 playoff rounds against the best teams in the NBA. Even the exceptions to the rule like 06 Wade or 99 Duncan were paired with experienced veterans like Shaq and David Robinson. The age at which NBA stars are usually able to lead their teams to championships starts at around 26 and this year Jayson Tatum is 26 and Jaylen Brown is 27, also important Porzingis is 28 and Derrick White is 29 their 4 best players are right in the age sweet spot for a breakthrough championship run.
Besides the ages lining up, this roster is absolutely stacked to be a 2 way force. They have size, they have shooting, they have athleticism, they have the experience and continuity and they have been super healthy. They have used all of this to absolutely blow teams off the floor, they are going to win over 60 games and finish the season with a historic point differential.
Right now they are 9 games up on 2nd place in the East so they will coast to the 1 seed without expending too much effort. Every sports show on TV, every podcast and every sportsbook has talked about how dominant they are and almost everyone has picked them to either win the title or at the very least win the East. Their best players will be all over the All NBA and All defense teams, there is nothing more they can prove here in the regular season. Although there are big names like Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler currently at the bottom of the East bracket those teams have not been nearly on the level of the Celtics this year and the Celitcs will be expected to deal with them easily and they will get no credit for doing so, the same goes for whoever they face in the second round.
There reaches a point where you are so good that if you don’t win the championship your success will be held against you. Rather than a 60+ win season being celebrated it will be labeled as fraudulent. So the pressure is on for the Celtics
The Nuggets
The kind of pressure the Nuggets are under is interesting and I debated having them both higher and lower in these tiers. They could have been lower because they did win the championship last year so that does take some weight off your shoulders for everyone involved and they could have been higher because once you win one championship you can either become a 1 off champion (which is very very very cool and memorable) or you can repeat and really stamp an era of NBA history as yours. There have been lots of incredibly memorable 1 time champions like Dirk’s Mavs, The 08 Celtics and the 04 Pistons and just winning 1 championship puts your in truly rarified air but the great ones repeat, Steph’s Warriors won 4, Lebron’s Heat won 2 (Lebron won 2 others but I’m focused on teams rn), the Kobe led Lakers win 2, the Duncan Spurs won 5, the Shaq lakers won 3, the Jordan Bulls won 6, the Hakeem Rockets won 2, the Bad Boy pistons won 2, the Magic Lakers won 5 and the Bird Celtics won 3 and that’s the entirety of modern NBA history.
So if the Nuggets can win another championship it just takes them another level as far as who they are in the history of the NBA and as an organization I believe it is their intention make the absolute most out of having a legendary player like Nikola Jokic on their team and try to become the defining team of the 2020s.
It’s kind of the like the pressure Lebron James has been under his entire career where it is not enough to scale the mountain and become a champion you have to do it again and again and try to chase down a ghost. Not that the Nuggets are going to scrutinized nearly to the level of Lebron James I’m just saying it’s hard to compare the pressure of trying to break through for the first time and validate who you are as a team vs trying to cement yourself as an all-time legendary team. (The Bucks have a little bit of this too because they could also grab the title as the team of the 2020s I would say it’s a little different because they’ve gone all in on Dame and I don’t think they have as good of runway for continued success as the Nuggets do)
Anyway, similar to the Celtics the Nuggets are most fans, media and sportsbooks pick to come out of the West so there is some pressure from those expectations. They haven’t been the same level of regular season team as the Celtics though and there are some built in excuses about how hard it is to repeat, kind of built in and also the west is just so much tougher than the East and loaded with Superstars all over the standings. For example if the Nuggets lost in the first round to the Lakers they would get roasted a bit but Lebron and the Lakers would be the story vs if the Celtics lose to the Heat in the first round I’m think ESPN would rather just do multiple weeks of Celtics talk than cover Heat vs Magic in the second round. So a little less pressure from that perspective.
Also similar to the Celtics the Nuggets core are all in their primes so they have a long runway for continued success should this year end in disaster which as I said above definitely takes the edge off compared to franchises that are all in on this year.
A little add on the Nuggets pressurewise would be that there are corners of NBA media and twitter that do love to bring up what the Nuggets finals run was against a lot of play in teams (which is a funny way of phrasing it because it does make it sound like it might have been the 10 seed, also the Lakers and Suns where wayyy better than higher seeded teams like the Kings and Grizzlies so it was a plenty difficult finals run even if the Nuggets made it look too easy and now I’m rambling) my point is that if the Nuggets lose this year then I can definitely see that take making a comeback which would be annoying.
For the Nuggets there is pressure because of how good they are, there is pressure to prove last year wasn’t a fluke and there is the pressure of possibly moving from a great team to a legendary team.
Tier 4: Pressure from the Stars
Teams: The Dallas Mavericks – The Los Angeles Lakers – The Philadelphia 76ers – The Cleveland Cavaliers
This tier contains a group of teams all under a good deal of pressure because of exactly one player on their roster and what a disastrous playoff run means for that player and that team’s future.
It’s a fun tier because all of these team’s star players have pressure on them but each in their own way and this tier marks the first tier where these teams don’t necessarily need to win a championship this year to relieve the pressure.
The Mavericks
2 seasons ago the Mavericks were on top of the world. Their 23 year old superstar had just led them to the Western Conference Finals with a supporting cast of athletic defenders and shooters. Even though they had made a semi reckless trade for Kristaps Porzingis that didn’t work out it appeared that they were going to be a force to be reckoned with in the West for years to come.
Then last year they missed the play in tournament entirely which is crazy and they have also sent out quite a bit of draft capital for Kyrie Irving (who they did successfully re-sign which was huge) PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford who are all good players but when you are looking at only having 2 first round picks from now until 2031 you’d like have a pretty stacked roster to show for it and the Mavs really don’t. The worry is that the Mavs are speedrunning the Lebron first stint in Cleveland storyline where you have a great player so you frantically try to build around them but make a series of wrong moves and by the end of their rookie extension the team has no real path to success forcing the star to leave in heart breaking fashion.
Right now the Mavs are in the play in tournament range of the standings which means it is entirely in the cards that they could still miss the playoffs entirely but even assuming they make the playoffs if they don’t manage to win at least one series they will be looking at back to back very underwhelming seasons while employing one of the top 5 players in the league.
Luka is only 25 and I just did a whole thing about how stars don’t usually win until they are more like 27 so he’s not to the point where he needs to be freaking out that he’s not winning championships but I think if there are multiple bad seasons right in the middle of his prime and the team’s resources to build a better team are nearly exhausted for the next 7 years then I think he would look around and feel like the team isn’t good enough and that it’s not going to get any better.
So the pressure the Mavs are under is to show their young star that they are moving in the right direction and that Kyrie, Derrick Lively and PJ Washington are the right core to move forward with. I think all it would take to calm down some of the Luka angst is 1 playoff series win but they’ve made it hard for themselves by being at the bottom of the playoff bracket.
The Lakers
The situation with the Lakers is simple, when you employ Lebron James you are under pressure to build a championship contender around him every single year.
Lebron’s time with the Lakers has been something of a roller coaster. The first season was spoiled by an injury and they missed the playoffs, the second season was a championship, the third season was also spoiled by an injury and ended in the first round, the fourth season was a disaster and they missed the play in entirely.
At that point it looked like despite the fact Lebron clearly wants to end his career in LA he might leave if the Lakers had another disappointing season and it looked like things were headed that way until they made a flurry of trades at the deadline that re energized the team that led to them making a deep playoff run that ended in the Western Conference Finals.
I believe that making that run bought the Lakers another year of goodwill from a frustrated Lebron but now the Lakers are in the depth of the play in tournament where the odds will be stacked against them to even make the playoffs that frustration could easily re emerge and lead to Lebron potentially leaving.
So the Lakers need to fight through the play in tournament and win at least 1 playoff series. This seems pretty unlikely because they will at best be the 8th seed and 8th seed over 1 seed upsets almost never happens but last year they were the 7th seed and they went on to win not just 1 but 2 series so I can’t rule it out entirely. (I will say that only 1 of the Lakers or the Mavericks can possibly win a series this year since 1 of them will face the Nuggets so no matter what 1 of these teams are going home unhappy)
The 76ers
This one is interesting because it is conditional on Embiid returning healthy in time to play like himself in the playoffs. If he doesn’t return or if he returns but is clearly a shell of himself (if this is the case he should not play) then this is just a throwaway year for the Sixers which sucks for the fans but sometimes it is kind of fun because you get to celebrate any playoff games your teams steals and not go into a death spiral when they lose so at least there’s that.
The Sixers have been pretty secretive about the Embiid injury to the point where it feels like he’s hurt way worse and they just don’t want to tell anyone or he’s progressing well and since he is already out of the running for any regular season awards they are holding him out and having him get as healthy as possible before having him come back for the playoffs which would be smart and I think would give them the best chance to go on a run.
So for the sake of this conversation about pressure let’s assume he is going to be back at almost full strength.
Embiid won the MVP last year and was not shy about feeling like he should have won it the year before and this year was on a tear where it looked like he was going to win it again. Winning MVP brings intense pressure and scrutiny especially when you campaign hard for it. The MVP is a regular season award and nobody can argue how good Embiid has been in the regular season throughout his career but his playoff record is not pretty, there have been years he’s been outmanned like 2020 or injured like 2022 but there are also years like 2021 and 2023 where it was right in front of him to take that step and he stumbled. As of right now Embiid is the only league MVP EVER to not have made the conference finals which is not even that high of a bar to clear.
Embiid has mentioned that he wants to be one of the greatest players ever which is why it was so important that he win the MVP but the MVP can work against you if you don’t combine winning an MVP can work against you and you become remembered more as the guy who stole an MVP from an actual all time great the way that people talk about Rose stealing an MVP from Lebron or Nash stealing MVPs from Kobe and Shaq.
If you’re Embiid I’m sure the goal is to win a championship but I think it would be a weight off his shoulders to at least get past the second round.
As for the Sixers the pressure is also on them because if Embiid’s prime comes and goes without a deep playoff run then they will get a lot of the blame for being poorly run and not putting the right team around a generational talent.
Similar to the Mavs and the Lakers the Sixers are not in a great spot to make a run as they are dangerously close to the play in. But if they can avoid the play in and get a first round matchup with the Cavs that is a great matchup for them then they would be looking at a second round series vs most likely the Bucks which would be a series where legends are made. Win and you have the great playoff run that validates Embiid as a playoff performer, lose it and it’s the same story as always.
The Cavs
The Cavs are an interesting fit in this tier because they have a young team where most stars aren’t even close to their primes and their star player generating pressure for them is not quite on the level of Luka, Lebron and Embiid but if the Cavs go out with a whimper in the first round again it’s going to make it even easier for Donovan Mitchell to push the send me to New York or Miami and even LA button and set this Cavaliers team back.
I applaud the Cavs for being aggressive and adding Donovan Mitchell after they had just had their best season since Lebron left and had sent 2 players to the all star game. It seemed like a move that made sense to get them to the next level and Donovan paid them off with a great regular season and their first non Lebron playoff appearance since 1998 which is great but if he forces his way out after 2 seasons then it will be a big let down for the Cavs.
Mitchell has been great in Cleveland and he has said all the right things and he’s great guy in the locker room so it’s not like he’s holding this postseason over the Cav’s head and explicitly threatening to leave if there is no deep playoff run but he’s been on a mission for a few years to get to New York or Miami and he could have extended with Cavs this past offseason and he chose not to which will make it easier for him to force his way out and if he experiences back to back bad playoff losses then that would make forcing his way out even easier.
The Cavs need to make the decision to leave as difficult as possible, the only thing that trumps a premier location like New York and Miami is the opportunity to compete for a championship so Cleveland needs to prove that they are serious about contending and that if Mitchell wants to win a championship then the best place to be is Cleveland.
I think the bare minimum they need this year is to win 2 playoff series, it’s possible that winning 1 series and then being competitive in a second round series would be enough but I think most likely anything short of Eastern Conference Finals won’t be enough to convince Donovan that they are a better option than Miami or the New York teams which is tough because I don’t think any of those teams will win 2 series but they have the advantage over Cleveland when it comes to getting stars to want to play there.
If Donovan leaves it wouldn’t be the end of the world because they do have 3 very good players still on the roster all under the age of 26 so they will still be in their primes a few years from now once the Cavs are restocked on Draft picks and can make another move but still it would be painful to have given up all you gave up for Mitchell for 2 seasons that end very quickly in the playoffs.
Tier 5: Not Quite a Free Roll (Just win a series tier)
Teams: The New York Knicks – The Sacramento Kings – The Oklahoma City Thunder
The theme for this tier are teams that need to do more than just show up to the playoffs this year. None of these teams are expected to win the finals this year but there is a big difference between the pressure these teams are under and the pressure that the teams in the “Free Roll” tier.
The Knicks
The Knicks are an interesting case because for years their strategy was to hope that big time free agents would sign with them and then the free agents wouldn’t sign with them and then they would sign a washed up free agent to the worst contract in the league, the plan seemed to be just hope and pray that the fact that New York is a cool city would eventually save them.
However since Leon Rose took over and hired Tom Thibodeau they have been very slowly and patiently building their team following their vision and it feels like they are really close to having that team. Jalen Brunson has emerged as one of the best guards in the league, they have a cast of role players that compliment him and play both ends very hard and even though Julius Randle is an easy target his volume scoring and tough shot making is important to making this team’s offense work.
Earlier this year Becky Hammon got in some hot water with Knicks fans for saying that Jalen Brunson isn’t good enough to be the best player on a championship team but despite what thousands of angry Knicks fans online may tell you she was correct and with the team they have currently constructed with him as the best player they don’t have championship ceiling which is why they are not higher up in the tiers.
There are a few reasons why they are in this tier and not in the free roll tier.
The first reason is that they did win a playoff series last year though so I think there is pressure on them to at least not move backwards in their progress and with their current place in the standings where they will most likely get a matchup with either the Pacers or the Magic which are both young teams that will be making their first attempt at a playoff who the Knicks should be able to overpower similar to how they overpowered the Cavs last year.
The second reason is that even though this team still feels like they are building themselves up and aren’t at their peak, they are not a young team like those Magic and Pacers teams that are a little bit lower in the standings, their best players are all in their late 20s so it’s not like they can look at quick playoff exit and think that’s no big deal our guys aren’t even in their prime because their guys are exactly in their prime.
I am intrigued by what the Knicks do in the playoffs this year. A lot of their guys are battling through injuries, Robinson hasn’t played since December, Randle hasn’t played since January and Anunoby is just barely returning from a long injury recovery but when they’ve had even most of their guys healthy this year they’ve been a very good team especially since the Anunoby trade.
They are one of the few teams that I would give a fighting chance to beat either the Celtics or the Bucks, I wouldn’t pick them in a series but the way that they play makes it so they always have a chance and I think the fact that they have built a team that always has a chance is why eventually they will get a superstar to either sign or request a trade there.
The Kings
Last year the Kings were the biggest surprise in the NBA catapulting from outside of the Play in tournament to a top 3 seed. This rapid and unexpected ascension made the 2023 playoffs the Kings free roll playoffs. Unfortunately for the Kings that free roll got used on a first round exit at the hands of Steph Curry and Warriors.
Even if you’ve been as bad as the Kings have been for the past 20 years you just don’t get free roll after free roll in the playoffs so this year there is more pressure on the Kings to prove that they are more than just a regular season team. The bar is pretty low though all they have to do is win a playoff series and I think they are off the hook as far as expectations this year.
The reason there isn’t more pressure on the Kings is because their stars, Fox (26) and Sabonis (27) are just entering their primes and most of the other players on the roster besides Harrison Barnes (who is only 31 so not a dinosaur) are also very young. They also have all their first round picks from 2025 on to spend on improving the team. Also even though I just said a paragraph ago that stinking it up for 20 years doesn’t give you an endless amount of free rolls at the playoffs it does mean that your fans are happy with just making the playoffs and it will be another season or two before they start REALLY complaining about getting bounced in the first round.
Although there is one thing that would start to ramp up the pressure on these Kings and that is if Tyrese Haliburton starts leading the Pacers on deep playoff runs and the Sabonis – Haliburton trade discourse heats back up and starts to look pretty bad for the Kings. But the Pacers have looked like a shell of themselves since the halfway point of the season so I think the Kings are safe for now.
The Thunder
The Thunder are perhaps a controversial member of this tier. Since they are battling with the Nuggets for the 1 seed in the Western conference you might be tempted to put them in a much higher tier of playoff pressure but the fact that they have been one of the best teams in the league this year has only managed to push them up from the free roll tier into the not quite a free roll tier.
There are a few different reasons for this:
First is that they are an incredibly young team and this will be their first real playoff run together (Shai and Dort were on the 2020 playoff team but this is different and the play in last year doesn’t count). I just can’t say that there is the same level of pressure on a group of young guys making their first playoff run as there is on a team like the Celtics who are older across the board and have been making deep runs since 2017.
Second is related to the first but a little bit different but coming into the season the Thunder were simply not expected to be one of the best teams in the West. At the start of the season people were excited for this young core to play together and I think at most people were hopeful they could build on making the play in last year and make the real playoffs this year so they could start taking their lumps. Every other top contender came into the season knowing that they needed to make a deep playoff run and that factors in to the pressure they feel today.
Third is that they have so so many draft picks to continue to build this team. The teams under the most pressure like the Suns and the Clippers and traded away almost everything to try to have the best team this year but the Thunder are on the best teams this year and they have an unprecedented number of incoming first round picks to continue to take shots in the draft or to trade for players to improve the roster in coming years.
A part of me really thinks this year is a free role for the Thunder. I think it will be exciting for them to get into the playoffs this year and see how guys like Chet and Jalen Williams perform in that kind of environment. Based on whatever happens they’ll enter the offseason knowing what they need to fix in order to take their young team to the next level and then they have all the resources that they could ever need to fix whatever gaps they have that are holding them back. Maybe they’ll find that they need another big to bang around in the post with Jokic and AD, maybe they’ll find that they need more shooting or more defense whatever they find they’ll be able to address and come back next year even stronger.
However because OKC has been SO good this year there is now more pressure on them than most teams that have their breakout season. They are on pace to win about 57 games which is a great season and even though they have a group of great young players and all the picks in the world there is simply no guarantee that they will ever have a regular season this good again. It may seem overly pessimistic and I would bet that during the Shai era that they hang around 50 win total most years but there have been many teams to have a great regular season, have it end early in the playoffs, tell themselves they would be back next year and then just simply never be that good again. For example the 2012 Thunder!
So simply because they have been so good the is pressure to make the most of their very good team. I think they are a good bet to make at least the conference finals but pressurewise I think it is just important for them to avoid getting upset in the first round by a team like the Mavericks, Suns, or the Lakers who are both under quite a bit of pressure and both feel like they could win a series against them.
So just win a round.
Tier 6: Bonus Tier – Legacy Pressure
Teams: The Golden State Warriors – The Miami Heat
This tier is for teams that have some pressure on them because of who they have on their roster and who they have been over the past few years as a team. Both these teams have been very successful whether you go back 2 years, 6 years or 12 years. Both of these team’s best players are in their mid thirties so time is running short on their window of contention.
The reason these teams aren’t up in the pressure from the stars tier stems from the fact that they have had deep playoff runs recently and they simply have not been good enough this season to warrant any belief in them or the pressure that comes with that belief.
The Warriors
The Warriors have been the best team of the last 10 years and there’s no debating that. Every member of their core has stamped their place in the history books. After they won in 2022 and proved they could win without Kevin Durant even with their core guys all at the very tail end of their primes you could argue that the Warriors have nothing left to prove.
However similar to how the Lakers are under pressure because they employ Lebron James the Warriors are under pressure to make the most of the last years of Steph Curry’s prime. Less because he might leave and more because I think the front office bungled having 3 lottery picks during Steph’s prime about as bad as they could have and once Steph retires they are almost certainly looking at a Post Tim Duncan Spurs type of rebuild. (It is a little funny that the Warriors front office used to reference the Spurs as their vision for what they could be as far as extending their dynasty because once Duncan retired the Spurs quickly found out that a lot of their “genius” was actually Tim Duncan and once Steph Curry retires I am certain that the Warriors front office is going to find it hard to stay “lightyears ahead”)
The reason the Warriors aren’t on the same tier as the Lakers despite not being all that far apart in the standings is because they won the title just 2 seasons ago so how mad can you be that they’re not blowing everyone away this year. Also Steph is not nearly the flight risk that Lebron is, nothing is impossible but it feels like he would never request a trade to ring chase in his late 30s so the Warriors are safe from that perspective.
The last reason is kind of hard to square because they will get to be in the same play in game as the Lakers but because they Warriors have looked so much worse all season and especially recently I just think there is no expectation for them to make it out of the play in game and then make any sort of run.
To summarize all of this, there is always pressure when you have a player as good as Steph but this Warriors team has been so disappointing it’s almost like they’re already eliminated and they just need to focus on not wasting next year.
The Heat
The Heat are difficult to understand. Over the past 4 years they’ve had multiple deep playoff runs while almost never being a dominant regular season team. The NBA is not like March madness, deep runs from low seeds are incredibly rare and yet the Heat seem to have mastered it. Here is what their seed to playoff runs have looked like season to season:
2020: 5 Seed – Made the Finals – Lost
2021: 6 Seed – Lost in first round
2022: 1 Seed(!?) – Lost in Eastern Conference Finals
2023: 8 Seed – Made the Finals – Lost
Maybe it’s coaching, maybe it’s playoff Jimmy but this team is not to be counted out just because of a weak regular season. They also are capable of having a great regular season though so it’s not like they can’t do it.
Anyway the reason I have them so low is that they are coming off a miraculous playoff run last year where they beat the odds and exceeded expectations round after round and because once again they are going to find themselves at the bottom of the playoff bracket I just don’t think there is very much pressure to do something so unlikely again.
Similar to how the Celtics are victims of their own success when it comes to their awesome regular season putting pressure on them to perform in the playoffs the Heat are benefactors of their own regular season mediocrity. What’s funny is that they can have an underwhelming regular season and really get no criticism for it, everyone just assumes that they will turn it on when it matters and the 82 game sample size of them being “meh” doesn’t matter. They live in a twilight zone where they get all the benefit of the doubt that they contenders despite not showing it and none of the pressure that comes from being a real contender which is insane but what’s even more insane is that they have earned this.
There is some pressure though because people do expect them to be able to go on a deep run and because Jimmy is getting older and he is very important to what this team is. But at the same time there isn’t too much pressure to go on a deep run because they just did it last year and there isn’t too much pressure to win during Jimmy’s prime because he is not on the Lebron or Steph level.
I think the biggest reason that the Heat exist in this weird space is because even though Jimmy and Bam are both really good players the Heat don’t have a true Superstar on their team which sounds harsh but that’s why they are always in talks to get players like Dame or rumored to be trying make room for Giannis and I’m sure if the Embiid Sixers situation gets weird they’ll be one of the top landing spots for him because they know they are 1 more star player aways from getting over the hump.
Tier 7: FREE ROLL
Teams: The New Orleans Pelicans – The Orlando Magic – The Indiana Pacers
This is a great tier to be in for a young team. To be in the free roll tier means that you are ascending that no matter what happens in the playoffs your season is already a success. If you go on a deep run that’s awesome if you don’t that’s ok too we’ll see you next year!
I should say that once you’ve been in the free roll tier the pressure either increases as you continue to ascend (think Boston Celtics) or it goes away entirely as you fall apart and never amount to anything (think the AD Pelicans).
The Pelicans
Speaking of the Pelicans here they are happily in the Free Roll tier. It’s a little controversial to have them here because they did make the playoffs with a similar core in 2021 but the fact that this is the first time they are going to make the playoffs with a healthy Zion Williamson makes this basically a whole new team so they get to be in the free roll tier.
Once you look past their 2021 playoff appearance this Pelicans team is the definition of the free roll team, their top 2 stars Zion and Ingram are 26 and 23 and then their key role guys, Murphy and Jones are 23 and 25 so they are all just at the very beginning of their NBA primes.
They have some older guys like McCollum (32) and Valanciunas (31) but they have all their own first round picks and more to eventually replace those guys so by no definition are they in some sort of time crunch.
It’s an exciting year for the Pelicans who have for a few years felt like they had the pieces of a very good team but because of health they just haven’t been able to put together a good enough regular season to the point where they could be in a good spot going into the playoffs. This year they could go as far as to have homecourt advantage in the first round and with a superstar like Zion at full health and the well rounded cast he has around him they are a team that nobody wants to face.
I would say that they have a championship ceiling but I don’t think they have quite enough experience. We saw last year when the Grizzlies and Kings lost to the Lakers and the Warriors that experience trumps everything in the playoffs. That being said I think the Pelicans can definitely win at least one round if not two this year but even if they don’t know worries no pressure until next year.
The Magic
Orlando Magic! Orlando Magic! Orlando Magic! OooOooOooWoah! Just two years after being so bad that they were awarded the #1 pick in the draft the Magic are firmly in the playoffs and even in the mix for a top 3 seed. They are led by a pair over very young former lottery picks Paolo Banchero (21) and Franz Wagner (22) and it will be years before either of them are truly in their primes so the fact that they are going to make the playoffs let alone be a high seed is great for them.
The Magic’s main thing this year has been their defense, they have 2 of the best defenders in the league in Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Issac (when he plays) and the have a good rim protector in Wendell Carter Jr in the middle of their defense and their 2 stars aren’t afraid to get down in a defensive stance either. So the way the Magic win is play really tough defense and then let Banchero and Wagner figure it out on the offensive end and even though it hasn’t always been pretty it’s worked well for them this year.
I actually like that they are a defense first young team because in the playoffs the game changes and not every style of offense translates well but having really good defenders does usually translate so I think we will see the Magic get in the playoffs and get to continue to play their brand of basketball.
As for how far their brand of basketball will take them I don’t know. I imagine that all the other teams that are in the mix for the 4-5 playoff series have circled the Magic the team that they would like to play that they feel like they could beat and they were most likely be large underdogs in a series vs the Knicks or the Cavs but the playoffs are were the best players rise to the top and it is possible that Paolo Banchero could really show up and have a break out moment in the first round and propel them to an upset victory.
If they do get to the second round that would be an interesting series against the Celtics because the Magic have been a very tough matchup for the Celtics over the past few years and are one of only 4 teams in the NBA to have a winning record vs the Celtics over the last 2 seasons. Now in the playoffs experience is everything and the Celtics have a ton and the Magic have almost none but they would definitely be an annoying matchup for a Celtics team that feels like their season will start in the ECF.
Anyway, incredible playoff run with multiple upset victories or not it doesn’t matter for the Magic because they are free rollin this year.
The Pacers
The Pacers season is maybe already a success just because of the run they had in the in season tournament but I’m sure they would love to add an actual playoff run on top of that. At the time of the play in it seemed like the Pacers were going to be one of the top teams in the East but a Tyrese Haliburton injury slowed both him and the team down and they slipped in the standings, but Haliburton is rounding back into form and the Pacers are climbing the standings again.
The Pacers are a little older than the other teams in this tier and they made something of a win now move by adding Pascal Siakam but Haliburton is just 24 and they have a bunch of former lottery picks that they are still developing so they still have a long runway to success after this season.
Right now the Pacers are pretty firmly in the 6 seed which is good because that guarantees them a ticket to the dance and right now they would most likely face either the Knicks or the Cavs in the first round which I don’t think are necessarily great matchups for them because those teams play good defense and I don’t think the Pacers up and down fast paced style will translate super great in the playoffs against those teams who would actually be able to get some stops and then score against the Pacers tissue paper defense. If they could somehow get through a series though and face the Bucks they have matched up pretty well with them during the regular season although that was early in the regular season when the Bucks were poorly coached and hadn’t integrated Dame very well into their team so who knows if that will even matter come April.
Anyway, whether or not the Pacers’ super sonic offense will translate to the playoffs this year doesn’t matter because they are in the free roll tier.
Tier 8: Maybe the Play In Tournament Was a Mistake
Teams: The Chicago Bulls – The Atlanta Hawks
These two teams are not good teams and in a world before the play in tournament their season would have been over back in early january because they are really nowhere near the top 8 teams. It feel pretty messed up that teams like the Heat and Sixers who are imperfect but when they are whole are good teams will have to play 1 winner take all game with one of these teams where maybe Jimmy turns an ankle or Embiid gets in foul trouble and suddenly instead of a great 1-8 matchup between the Celtics and one their rivals of the last few years we get teh Celtics and a doormat that they could beat even if Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both decide to go on an Aaron Rodgers esque darkness retreat instead of showing up for the first round.
I think there should be a rule that you have to be a certain distance from the 7 and 8 seed in order to trigger the play in tournament rather than having it be a guaranteed thing for the 9 and 10 seeds. I think the play in is great and it will be super entertaining this year in the West with Lebron and Steph and KD all involved but I think the Bulls and especially the Hawks have not been good enough to deserve to potentially play the Heat in a winner take all game.
If the season ends and you are over 6 games under .500 just go home and enjoy the offseason.
The Dishwasher 
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