The Last Oriole to win the MVP was Cal Ripken Jr in 1991. Now 33 years later the Orioles have another franchise shortstop and it looks like in just his second full season he might win the award.
Gunnar Henderson has come out of the gates on fire.
He is tied for the American league (when I say league in this blog I mean American league (suck it Mookie Betts write your own blog about your awesome season)) lead in homers.
He leads the league in WAR.
He is 4th in OPS.
He’s tied for 4th in RBIs (as a leadoff hitter btw).
He is 3rd in total bases (just 2 behind Judge in first and the Yankees have played 3 more games than the O’s so basically first in total bases if you ask me).
He is 3rd in triples (I don’t think this matters a ton for MVP but it’s cool also filtering this stat allowed me to discover Wenceel Perez who is 1 of 3 Tigers tied with Gunnar for 4 triples, what is going on in Detroit?).
He is also 3rd in the league in runs scored.
So Gunnar provides all of this offensive production while also playing elite defense at a premium defensive position at shortstop. If you watch Orioles games you are routinely wowed by incredible diving plays to stop balls from going out the middle of infield and incredibly powerful throws across to diamond to gun down runners who thought they had poked a ball through the left side of the infield.
As a side note it is interesting to watch Gunnar play defense after growing up watching Manny Machado who I would describe as a defensive genius at 3rd base who made everything look so smooth and effortless vs Gunnar who looks like he is attacking the baseball and when he throws it looks like he’s trying to melt the seams off the ball.
Anyway Gunnar’s MVP case starts with the homeruns, not that the MVP goes to the guy with the most homers every year but despite all of MLB’s efforts to reduce 3 true outcome baseball and increase batting averages and balls in play we still live in an MLB world where power is king. The voters love WAR and OPS and have been taught not to pause at a lower batting average and homers are the best things you can do to increase your OPS and WAR.
The last 3 MVP winners have been Shohei (44 HR), Judge (62 HR) and Shohei (46 HR) and I know part of the Shohei case was that he was also pitching and was/is maybe the best baseball player ever but I think it is possible is he was pitching and only hitting 18 homers it’s possible Vladdy beats him out in 2021 (because he hit 48 homers!) all this to say it seems like a high home run total is what it takes to get invited to the MVP dance.
The power is especially impressive as a shortstop which is a position where teams will frequently prioritize defense over offense (unless you are the Blue Jays). Seasons with 40+ homers from your shortstop are super rare in the last 10 years the only short stop to hit over 40 bombs in a season was Fernando Tatis in 2021 (and in an possibly unrelated note he missed a chunk of the next season with a PED suspension) and the only shortstop to hit 50 home runs in a season was Alex Rodriguez (who will never enter the Hall of Fame because of his PED use) Right now Gunnar is on pace to hit over 50 homers and although it is probably unrealistic for him to maintain this pace even if he falls short into the low 40s this would still most likely be the most impressive power hitting season from a shortstop in the last decade.
And not that game leadoff home runs count for more but it is awesome that Gunnar has 5 of those. Anytime Gunnar homers to start a game it feels like the Orioles are guaranteed a win.
I should say that it is important that Gunnar isn’t just out there swinging for the fences, his batting average has hovered around .270 since he broke out last June and he has been very patient at the plate drawing a lot of walks (much to his own displeasure as you can see him whip his bat towards the dugout after being pitched around) So the .270 average and .360 OBP are still important parts of his success.
The next part of his MVP case is the WAR where he is first in the AL and second in all of MLB. Gunnar is a war machine, last year despite the fact that he got off to REALLY slow start he managed to rack up a 6 war season, now this year instead of scuffling and struggling through April and May and dealing with whispers that he might have to be sent down to reset he is having at worst a top 5 season in the league. At 3.5 war just 50 games into the season he feels like a lock to finish the season with at least 7 WAR and I would give him a decent shot at touching 9 Wins Above Replacement.
WAR weighs defense by what position you play so by just playing good shortstop defense Gunnar could compile plenty of WAR but combine the good defense with leading the league in homers and you’ve got a WAR cheat code.
Besides the defense and homers Gunnar does a lot of the small things that help with your war like being an elite baserunner, scoring from second on singles, going from first to third on singles, stretching doubles into triples and he is perfect this year stealing bases this year. I actually think he should try to steal more at the risk of getting thrown out because with his speed I think he could be really successful and it would be cool for him to create a new 50/25 club or something like that.
A big part of why it is ok to get excited about Gunnar winning the MVP is because Shohei Ohtani has left the American League but so we are going to get an exciting MVP race that isn’t bogged down by someone being the best baseball player ever (yawn).
So who besides Gunnar are the MVP contenders so far?
Juan Soto
AVG: .315 | OPS: .995 | HR: 14 | RBI: 43 | WAR: 2.7 | OPS+: 178 | WRC+: 182
Soto is having a very comparable season to Gunnar from an offensive production perspective. Soto has his trademark patient approach at the plate to go along with his impressive bat to ball skills and his tremendous power. You don’t draw comparisons to Ted Williams at the age of 25 for nothing.
Soto is probably Gunnar’s biggest competition for the award, he is no stranger to the MVP chase as he has gotten votes in 4 different seasons and even finished second in 2021 to Bryce Harper in a season where he has an OPS+ of 217! Soto has been super consistent through his whole career with 5 seasons OPSing over .900 whereas Gunnars next season OPSing over .900 will be his first, so if you are looking at past to inform the future you probably feel pretty good about Soto’s ability to sustain an MVP caliber season.
Should the offensive numbers remain comparable I think Gunnar’s defense at short would provide a tie breaker so Soto’s best bet to win is to keep producing at his current level and hope Gunnar comes back to earth enough that the gap between their offensive numbers is bigger than their defensive contribution.
Aaron Judge
AVG: .275 | OPS: 1.030 | HR: 16 | RBI: 37 | WAR: 3.0 | OPS+: 187 | WRC+: 186
The only reason Shohei Ohtani didn’t win 3 straight MVPs is because Aaron Judge had one of the greatest non PED powered offensive seasons ever and he is still very capable of that. Really the only reason Judge didn’t give Shohei a run for his money last year was that right field wall in Dodger stadium taking out his foot. (and now Shohei is a Dodger?? Has anyone looked into this?)
I know in the Soto blurb I said Soto was Gunnar’s biggest comp for the award but I lied it’s actually Judge. Aaron Judge is an offensive weapon equal to Juan Soto but he also plays a good centerfield which is a premium defensive position.
If Aaron Judge is healthy and playing centerfield all season it might be his award to lose.
Bobby Witt Jr
AVG: .305 | OPS: .918 | HR: 8 | RBI: 34 | WAR: 3.4 | OPS+: 154 | WRC+: 149
The Bobby Witt Jr vs Gunnar Henderson debate is going to be a really fun for the next decade. Witt and Henderson are providing a lot of winning impact for their teams in slightly different ways. Offensively Witt trades some of the power for a high batting average and is more aggressive stealing bases. Gunnar’s power does make it so he grades out as the better offensive player but the tradeoff is interesting to me, I would be interested to see what would happen if Witt hunted the homerun a bit more at the expense of his batting average but I also love a .300 hitter so I don’t know if I was the Royals coaches if I would recommend that.
Defensively I’ve mentioned a few times that Gunnar playing good to great defense at shortstop is a big advantage for him in the MVP race and that is true but Bobby Witt doesn’t play good or even great defense at Shortstop he plays elite defense at shortstop which is point in his favor.
It will be interesting to see as the season goes on if both these young shortstops are able to maintain their excellent offensive starts to the season and I am also interested if Gunnar can get his defensive numbers closer to Witt’s I am not a huge fan of defensive metrics in general but a difference in OAA of 7 is kind of massive and it is something that the voters will take into account if it comes down to Gunnar and Bobby this year.
Kyle Tucker
AVG: .286 | OPS: 1.043 | HR: 17 | RBI: 36 | WAR: 3.4 | OPS+: 197 | WRC+: 192
We need to do something about Kyle Tucker’s name because there is no way someone this good playing on a team as relevant as the Astros (they’ll be in the ALCS this year against all odds) should be able to fly under the radar.
It is weird to say that someone who has gotten MVP votes in 3 different seasons in his career and has been an all star the past 2 seasons is having a breakout season but that is what Kyle Tucker is doing this year. He has been between .808 and .919 OPS the last 5 years and over the last 3 seasons he hit 29, 30 and 30 home runs, basically a metronome of great offensive production but this year his OPS is up over 1.000 and he is already at 17 homers and he is showing no signs of slowing down, now I think he will slow down a little but with what he has already done if he just goes back to who has been the last 3 years it will be an MVP caliber season for sure.
The Dishwasher 
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