Last week we got the terrible news that both John Means and Tyler Wells are going to be out for the rest of the season. This sucks for both of those guys because of how hard they worked to get back from their last Tommy John surgeries and it also sucks because they were both going to be important to this year’s Orioles team.
John Means was supposed to the #4 pitcher in the rotation which I think would have made him maybe the best #4 starter in the league and Wells was most likely going to be a valuable part of the bullpen once he got healthy.
With Means out of the season and Kremer on the IL the rotation currently looks like this
Burnes – Bradish – Rodriguez – Irvin – Suarez
In the most recent press conference the O’s said that Kremer’s injury that landed him on the IL is not too serious and that he should be returning this month which means he will replace one of Irvin or Suarez, I’d say most likely Suarez. So then the rotation would look like this:
Burnes – Bradish – Rodriguez – Kremer – Irvin
Which I’d say is a pretty good rotation with 3 guys who have #1 starter stuff and 2 high 3 to low 4 ERA guys to round out the rotation and then you also know you have Albert Suarez to come in if someone gets hurt. So there is an argument to be made that maybe the O’s don’t need to make a big move to replace John Means but I think that argument is wrong and that there are a few different reasons why the O’s definitely need to make a move for a starting pitcher that is better than Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin to replace John Means in the rotation.
Reason number 1 is the baseball cliche that you can never have too much pitching so by default a front office should always be looking for more pitchers to add.
Reason number 2 is a bit more specific and that is that Kyle Bradish hurt his UCL in the off season and even though he is back now and he looks really really good that is the kind of injury that loves to pop back up at just the wrong time and if we lose Bradish the O’s ratio of very good starters to good enough starters gets flipped from 3-2 to 2-3 and that is a big deal when you consider that in the early rounds of the playoffs you need 3 really good starters.
Reason number 3 is that yes a 3-2 ratio of really good pitchers to good enough pitchers but a 4-1 ratio would be even better. With Means we had the 4-1 ratio and it was great so why settle for less when the O’s have the resources to go and get a really good pitcher.
So who are these really good pitchers the O’s could get? At the start of the season when Bradish and Means first went down I wrote about 5 pitchers that the O’s could have acquired before the season started now unfortunately 2 of them (Montgomery and Snell) got signed to other teams that I don’t think are going to want to trade them, 1 of them (Shane Beiber) is injured and out for the season and 1 of them (Dylan Cease) got traded to another team so as I look to make another list of potential starters the O’s could get to replace John Means I will have start fresh.
So who could the Orioles trade for at this trade deadline to level up the current rotation?
I found answering this question to be a bit like threading a needle.
On one hand whoever the Orioles trade for needs to be a clear upgrade from Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin. Getting starting pitching at the deadline is expensive and if the Orioles are going move some of their prized prospects they want whoever they trade for to be someone who will definitely be a starter on this team in October (see last years Jack Flaherty trade as an example of what can happen if you try to improve your rotation with a half measure)
So that eliminates a lot of the pitchers projected to be on the market like the Sean Manaeas, the Ross Striplings and the Patrick Sandovals of the world.
On the other hand, the kinds of pitchers that would be a significant upgrade to the Orioles rotation are not the kinds of pitchers that teams are usually interested in trading. Even if a team is really bad and has no shot at winning they are not likely to trade away a good starting pitcher unless that pitcher is near the end of their contract and the team is far enough away from contention that it makes more sense to restock the system with prospects rather than re sign them.
So as you are looking for possible trade partners you have to look for teams that KNOW that they are far away from contending and then you have to pry away their best pitcher.
Anyway here is a list of possible trade targets for the O’s this year
Garrett Crochet
ERA: 3.49 | WHIP: 0.993 | ERA+: 116 | FIP: 2.88 | K/9: 12
Free Agency Year: 2027
Crochet is having a breakout season in his frist year as a starter. He has shown the ability to maintain his electric stuff even as a stretched out starter going 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. He gets a lot of whiffs, a lot of strikeouts and he pounds the zone. He is just 25 years old and won’t reach free agency until 2027. It’s an almost perfect trade target.
My opinion of Crochet is admittedly biased based on the fact that I did just recently watch him dice through the Orioles lineup striking out 11 batters in 6 innings but even before his start against the Orioles he was having a really good season by almost any metric they have for pitching.
I will say that the riskiest part of trading for Crochet is that this is his first year as a starter and the most innings he’s ever thrown in a big league season is 54 which he has already surpassed this year so there is some risk in the sense that we don’t know how is arm will hold up going into the postseason after a full regular season workload. Will he wear down? Will he get hurt? These are just questions we don’t know the answer to.
The White Sox make a ton of sense as trade partners, they are the worst team in baseball this year and they also have a very poor farm system. So with no hope in the present and no prospects in the pipeline it makes sense for them to trade Crochet who is by far their most intriguing young pitcher to try to restock the farm with prospects.
Now last year the Orioles and White Sox were in a similar situation with Dylan Cease and the word was that the White Sox were asking for too much in exchange for Cease and I think a year later with Crochet we might run into the same problem. Crochet is younger, has more years left before free agency and is having a better season than what Cease was having so the White Sox asking price will be very high.
I’ll be interested to see if the Orioles are more willing to trade for Crochet with him being so young and the reality of the current prospect logjam hitting the major league roster.
Jesus Luzardo
ERA: 4.18 | WHIP: 1.142 | ERA+: 102 | FIP: 3.65 | K/9:8.7
Free Agency Year: 2027
I have written about the O’s trading for Luzardo so many times it’s beginning to feel like an obsession but it just makes too much sense. He’s young but he has multiple years of experience both pitching through an entire regular season and pitching in the playoffs, he’s under team control for 3 more seasons and he’s got a track record of being a really good pitcher.
He is off to a bit of a slow start this year. His ERA is up compared to normal, he’s getting hit harder than usual and he’s walking more batters than usual but it is early in the season and if he had back to back good starts his numbers would look almost just like his usual numbers. The fastball velo is down which is probably the most concerning out of everything. I trust the Orioles scouts and front office to look at both the numbers and the film and determine if there is any reason to be concerned.
It has already been reported that Luzardo is the pitcher most likely to be traded by the Marlins at this deadline. So he will definitely be on the market which is great because at the beginning of the season I thought it would take Elias and Co doing some crazy negotiating just to convince the Marlins to consider trading Luzardo and now they’ve basically told the whole league “hey give us a call about Jesus Luzardo this deadline”
I think if it is a bidding war for Jesus Luzardo the O’s should be determined not to be outbid by any of their fellow contenders.
Seth Lugo
ERA: 1.72 | WHIP: 1.009 | ERA+: 239?? | FIP: 3.22 | K/9: 7.6
Free Agent Year: 2027
Seth Lugo has been one of the biggest surprises of this season as he is leading the league in both ERA and innings pitched. Lugo has had an unconventional career starting off as a starter then moving to the bullpen for FIVE years before getting a chance to start again in San Diego where he had a solid season and got himself paid by the Royals.
I couldn’t tell you exactly how Lugo is dominating this year. The best explanation I can pull from the statcast data is that he has added something they are calling a slurve and he also added a sweeper and he has traded off some of his curveball usage for those 2 pitches. So the expanded arsenal must be working.
The biggest risk with trading for Lugo is that he regresses back to the mid 3 ERA starter that he was last year and doesn’t end up being an upgrade for the rotation and since you traded for him when he had a sub 2 ERA you ended up paying a premium for an average starter in his mid 30s and now you owe him 30 million dollars.
Also I thought this note on statcast was funny:
+ Similar Pitchers to Seth Lugo Based on Velocity and Movement:
2020 – Dean Kremer
I should also note that as of right now the Royals are in the playoff picture so it is possible that they just want to ride out this Lugo season and see where it goes.
Guys I’d Like to Trade for that we Probably won’t trade for. But what if we could?
There are some other pitchers that are in possible trade adjacent scenarios that I don’t think will be traded but should things go VERY wrong for their teams or should the O’s start putting Jackson Holliday on the table I think they could possibly be traded.
I have them on my radar as interesting but unlikely trade targets. If anything I’m putting these names down because I want to have it on the record that I think these guys are
Tarik Skubal
Saying I would love to trade for Tarik Skubal is a bit obvious because he has been maybe the best pitcher in all of baseball this year and he’s 27 and under contract until 2027.
There is a case that the Tigers current lineup of hitters is so disappointing that it would make sense for them to trade Skubal at what will probably be the peak of his value to try to bolster their already very good farm system to try to make their future team with Max Green and Jace Jung and Jackson Jobe as competitive as possible.
I don’t think the Tigers will be at all interested in that however because they are so tired of sucking. They haven’t had a winning season since 2016 and I think they are tired of taking steps backwards and rebuilding, which as an Orioles fan that endured a lot of losing seasons I can understand. Also I think they view Skubal as a pillar for them to build around and with him under team control until 2027 they are hoping that by then they will be competing for the division.
If the Tigers are going to flip one of their pitchers for prospects it will be Jack Flaherty.
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray has been an above average to very good starting pitcher for almost his entire career since 2013 and last year he had maybe the best year of his career as he finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting and was an All Star. This year he has kept that momentum going is continuing at almost the exact same pace as last year
The Cardinals have an old team and are below .500, Gray is 34 and set to make 25 million for the next three years, I do think that the Cardinals would not mind selling Gray before they get stuck paying him 25 million in his age 36 season, but I don’t think the Orioles who have meticulously planned their runway and you suppose are preparing to offer big contracts to some of their young stars or perhaps Corbin Burnes this offseason want to very suddenly owe Sonny Gray 50 Million dollars.
If money were no object he would be a great addition and with David Rubenstien in the house maybe money is no object.
Bailey Ober – Pablo Lopez – Joe Ryan
I included this trio of Twins pitchers because they are lagging behind the Guardians and the Royals in their division and if the season takes a turn for the worse they could find themselves out of the playoff race early this year.
These guys are all young and good and under contract for a long time so there is really no reason to trade for them BUT the Twins lineup is full of old dudes, they are playing Carlos Santana (38), Christian Vasquez (33) , Carlos Correa (29, which isn’t old but his knees are old), Byron Buxton (30 again not super old but his body is older), Max Kepler (31) and Kyle Farmer (33) so it wouldn’t be the most outrageous thing if the Twins in a lost season traded one of their good young pitchers to get a few position player prospects so they can move on from all these old dudes.
Now I don’t think this will be a lost season for the Twins and I think these guys are just too good and under contract for too long to consider trading. So it would take a crazy package from the O’s to pry any of these guys loose and I just don’t think either side would be able to agree on anything.
George Kirby – Logan Gilbert
The only reason I would consider either of these guys an option to trade for is because the Mariners are one of those teams who are always operating with a forward looking eye and their roster right now has a lot of very good pitchers and their offense is terrible so it wouldn’t be the craziest thing if in their quest to win 54% percent of their games they decided to balance out their team a little bit. They have also dangled Logan Gilbert before so it’s not the furthest thing from their minds.
However, like the Twins I think these guys are just too good and too young for the Mariners to give up on so short of putting Jackson Holliday on the table I just don’t see the Mariners picking up the phone, but I’ll keep dreaming.
Reid Detmers
I don’t think Detmers is an upgrade for our rotation right now but he is just 24 he has 3 years of pitching pretty well in the big leagues and I feel strongly that his best days are ahead of him. As I was writing this it was announced that the Angels were sending him down to triple A so clearly they are not loving the Reid Detmers experience and the Angels are historically pretty poorly run so I think this could be an opportunity to grab a young pitcher who has a lot of talent for a cheap price.
The Dishwasher 
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