This year it feels like more teams than ever feel like they have a shot at making the playoffs. As of right now in the National League the Washington Nationals are in 13th place and are just 6 games out of a playoff spot. Basically any team in the National league can have a good week and find themselves suddenly in the playoffs.
In the American League things are not quite so balanced but even still the Rays who are in 9th place are 5.5 games back and they still feel like they are in it and if they are in it who is going to tell the defending champion Rangers at 7.5 games back that they are not in it.
I think that the most interesting kind of team to watch around the deadline are the teams that came into the season confident that they would be contending for a playoff spot but now find themselves drifting further and further away from the playoffs by the day.
Teams that go into the season knowing that they are most likely going to stink have a strong plan for what they are going to do with their trade chips, they know who they are going to deal and more or less what they want for them. Last year the Royals executed signing and then trading Aroldis Chapman so well that it almost feels like they signed him with the sole purpose of trading him for Cole Ragans.
But teams that think they are going to be good and then disappoint are more of a wildcard at the trade deadline. Think of last year’s Mets team that detonated at the trade deadline, their moves were by far the most interesting and unprecedented of any team at last year’s deadline.
As of today most of the teams in the league could convince themselves that they are just 1 good week of baseball away from having a playoff spot so these last few weeks before the trade deadline are going to be disproportionately influential in deciding which teams blow it up.
So as an Orioles fan I find myself scoreboard watching some teams who have starting pitchers who I think could be big time upgrades for our rotation. So I wanted to lay out what teams/pitchers I am most locked in on and what their schedule looks like leading up to the deadline.
The Blue Jays
As we near the All Star break the Toronto Blue Jays’ record is 43-50 which puts them at 12th in the American League sandwiched between the Detroit Tigers and the Los Angeles Angels. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games and recently lost 7 in a row. It looks like the championship window on their once promising core is coming to a close and they may look to trade away guys like Bo Bichette and maybe even Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
So the Blue Jays are a team that might be close to giving up on this season their current core and they have a brunch of very good starting pitchers but would they be willing to trade with a team in their division? Trading in the division isn’t unheard off but both teams would have reasons for not wanting to strike a massive deal. If you’re the Blue Jays you don’t want to trade the Orioles the last piece of the puzzle and give them a World Series title and if you’re the Orioles you don’t want to jump start the Blue Jays rebuild and give them a young star that will haunt you for the next decade. Although it does feel like the balanced schedule has made it so maybe you don’t have to worry quite so much about having Connor Norby OPS 1.555 against you 20 games a year in a Blue Jays jersey.
Assuming that they would be willing to trade in the division the Jays have 4 starters all in their 30s that could be very interesting trade targets for the Orioles. All 4 of them would be upgrades over what the Orioles currently have as their #3 starter.
Kevin Gausman
ERA: 4.50 | WHIP: 1.31 | ERA+: 90 | FIP: 3.87 | K/9: 9.0
Age: 33
Contract: 2025 – 23,000,000
2026 – 23,000,000
This would be an interesting reunion, Gausman did not leave the O’s on the best of terms and when given the chance has not spoken glowingly of his time in Baltimore, but that was a different front office and different ownership so I don’t think Gausman’s history with the O’s will be an issue when it comes to trading for him.
This year Gausman has not been his usual dominant self that we have grown accustomed to seeing over the last few seasons where he was one of the very pitchers in the league. The ERA is up and his advanced numbers indicate that he is fortunate that it’s not even higher. Even in Guasman’s good years he was susceptible to getting hit hard but he got people to swing and miss at his famous splitter and got strikeouts at an elite rate. This year the chase rate and the K rate have dipped down and that appears to be enough to make him a much less effective pitcher.
Now with a pitcher who is as proven as Gausman is, you expect him to “find it” and bounce back to the pitcher he’s been over the past few years. At 33 he isn’t so old that you would expect a full physical decline although everyone’s body is different and not everyone pitches into their 40s like Verlander and Scherzer.
As far as what it would take to get Guasman there are a few different factors at play. On one hand he is coming off 3 straight season finishing top 10 in Cy Young voting so if you’re the Blue Jays you feel like you should get a haul but one the other hand his ERA is almost 5 and you would have to pay him 46 million dollars over the next 2 seasons so if you’re the Orioles you feel like you should get a deal. It feels like the kind of situation where both sides would get very frustrated in the negotiations, honestly I would be a little worried if the Blue Jays were too eager to get Gausman off their books since they’re the ones that can see under the hood.
Bad numbers this season or not I would be excited to add Kevin Gausman to the rotation but I would understand if the struggles and the millions left on the contract are the reason that the O’s stay away.
Chris Bassitt
ERA: 3.52 | WHIP: 1.435 | ERA+: 115 | FIP: 3.72 | K/9: 8.4
Age: 35
Contract: 2025 – 22,000,000
Over the past 3 seasons Bassitt has averaged 30 starts per season at an ERA of 3.40 and this year he’s on pace to do pretty much exactly that once again. Now at 35 some of his underlying numbers aren’t quite where they were a few years ago but he’s managing to be just as productive.
As far as who he is as a pitcher Bassitt is pretty much the opposite of Kevin Gausman where he’s never been a big strikeout guy and when he is at his best he is forcing weak contact which is a skill that would certainly play with the Orioles strong defense behind him. Like I said he hasn’t been quite as elite at controlling contact as he had been in the past but he is veteran and I think there is an aspect of knowing how to pitch when your stuff isn’t quite as good on a given day and I also think (and this applies to Gausman as well) that going from last place to first place in the division overnight could give him a boost.
Out of all the guys on the Blue Jays staff I think Bassitt could be the best fit on the Orioles. His 22 million next year isn’t so much that you feel like it could hamstring the Orioles front office and then it’s off the books so you don’t have to worry about it becoming a true albatros.
Bassitt is good enough that he would immediately slot in as the O’s number 3 starter and I would feel a lot better giving him the ball in the game 3 scenario over Kremer or Irvin. At the same time his age and the fact that he isn’t anywhere near an ace means that the Blue Jays wouldn’t demand a massive haul in exchange for his services.
It feels like this could be a match.
Jose Berrios
ERA: 4.01 | WHIP: 1.185 | ERA+: 101 | FIP: 5.13 | K/9: 6.6
Age: 30
Contract: 2025 – 18,714,285
2026: 18,714,285
Opt out (player)
2027: 24,718,285
2028: 24,714,285
Out of the 4 Blue Jays pitchers Berrios feels like the least likely to be targeted by the O’s. While he is the youngest at 30 years old he feels like just as much of a veteran as the other 3 since he has been in the league since he was 22.
He’s had a very interesting career. He was an all star twice in Minnesota before being traded to Toronto and then in his first season as a Blue Jay was probably the worst full time starter in the league (maybe Patrick Corbin edged him out but it was close). Last year he bounced back and looked like his old self which I’m sure was a big relief to the Blue Jays who had given him a long contract but then this year he has regressed a little bit back towards who he was in 2022.
He’s very weird because the ERA will rise and fall but with most pitchers you look at the advanced stats and see how they have success and what their weaknesses are, but with Berrios it seems like all his advanced stats change wildly year to year almost at random.
I think that even if he was more consistent on a year to year basis that the Orioles still wouldn’t be super motivated to trade for him because of the contract. You can see he has that player option in 2027 which is basically a bomb for front offices because if the player out performs his contract he will decline the option and if he underperforms the contract (which seems most likely) he will pick it up and you’ll be stuck paying him a lot for a long time.
I will say he would be the 3rd best pitcher on the team so he would be an upgrade but I would expect the O’s to look elsewhere.
Yusei Kikuchi
ERA: 4.42 | WHIP: 1.302 | ERA+: 91 | FIP: 3.68 | K/9: 9.9
Age: 33
Contract: Expiring
If the O’s are looking for pure rentals then Yusei Kikuchi may be the best guy Blue Jays have to offer.
Kikuchi is an odd case because when you look at is career last year was the first year of his career with an ERA under 4. Now ERA isn’t everything and through the years he has always gotten a lot of strikeouts and he does a good job not walking people which are both important because at the end of the day those are the outcomes that a pitcher has the most control over.
His weakness is he gets lit up, even in his best seasons his hard hit and barrel rates are quite high. Now if he were to play for the Orioles he would benefit from the Orioles massive left field and the O’s defense behind him also if he were on the O’s he wouldn’t have to pitch to Adley or Mountcastle and that by itself might do wonders for his numbers.
I think he would be a pretty cheap target, I would guess similarly priced to Jack Flaherty last year so maybe a name like John Rhodes could get the job done. I don’t think that Kikuchi would do miracles on us but I do think he would help the rotation get through the rest of the season especially since the wheels might be coming off the Povich and Suarez part of the rotation. If by the end of the season he has looked good he can be our number 3 guy and if he struggles he has the strikeout stuff to be effective out of the bullpen.
The Rangers
Right now the Rangers find themselves 5 games back of the division lead and 7.5 games back of the last wild card spot. It isn’t an impossible deficit to make up especially since if you asked around a lot of people would tell you that the Astros should be favored to win the division and the Rangers are just 4 games behind the Astros. So even though it would be a tall task to claw their way back into the wild card or a division lead it doesn’t feel like a guarantee that the Rangers will sell at this deadline.
Even if the Rangers were to sell it wouldn’t be a fire sale like what we might see in Toronto. Seager and Semien are both building blocks that are under contract for a long time and they also have a crop of highly anticipated prospects in Langford and Carter so the Rangers are most likely looking to deal some of their older players who are on shorter deals and then regroup and compete for the division next year.
And several of the starters in the Rangers rotation fit that description.
Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 2.97 | WHIP: 1.043 | ERA+: 133 | FIP: 3.58 | K/9: 8.8
Age: 34
Contract: 2025 – 20,000,000 (option)
Maybe I am biased because my lasting memory of Nathan Eovaldi was him carving our lineup to shreds in an elimination game as I sat in the stands and listened to the crowd at Globe Life Field sing Higher by Creed but I think Eovaldi is a great pitcher and would be a perfect addition to this Orioles rotation.
On the mound he brings a balanced attack where he strikes a decent amount of guys out and also forces a lot of ground balls. He’s been reliable for many seasons now on multiple different teams and he’s been one of the best playoff pitchers of this generation.
He’s been so good that even though he is 34 and would probably get the Rangers a good haul in a trade in a trade I wouldn’t be surprised if they considered him a part of their core that they want to have on the team in 2025.
As far as what it would take to get Eovaldi I think I would start the deal with Norby and see if I could pair him with a Jud Fabian or Mac Horvath type and I feel like that should be enough.
Max Scherzer
ERA: 2.96 | WHIP: 0.988 | ERA+: 135 | FIP: 4.30 | K/9: 7.6 (in 5 starts)
Age: 39
Contract: Expiring
So recently Scherzer went on Foul Territory and said that he would not be waiving his no trade clause this year calling it “a moot point”. I certainly wouldn’t blame Scherzer for not wanting to be traded after he has ping ponged around the league in the last few seasons but when I watch the clip of him talking about his no trade clause a part of me feels like what else is he supposed to say there. His options are say he doesn’t want to be traded or else basically tell his team he doesn’t believe in them and that he wants out and Scherzer doesn’t seem like a guy that would throw his team under the bus like that.
I think that if the Rangers front office got a good enough offer they would sit down with Scherzer and ask him to waive the no trade clause and and if the choice is play on a team that has given up or play on a contender I think Scherzer would choose the contender.
So the question is would the Orioles offer enough to make the Rangers front office want to have that conversation with Scherzer. When it comes to Scherzer’s ability so far this year he has looked like himself in his few starts but he’s been pretty open about how he is fighting through pain so you worry that you trade for him in the last year of his deal and then he is hurt and gives you nothing.
On the brightside the injury he started the year with has basically served as an innings limit that if he’s healthy would ensure that he would be fresh in the playoffs
My feelings on Scherzer are that it would be really cool to add a future hall of famer to the rotation but I wouldn’t be banging on the table for the Orioles to send a pile of prospects for a 39 year old who has really struggled to stay healthy.
Andrew Heaney
ERA: 3.79 | WHIP: 1.25 | ERA+: 104 | FIP: 3.83 | K/9: 9.2
Age: 33
Contract: Expiring
I thought about not including Heaney on my list of trade targets but I remembered how he dominated us just a few weeks ago and I looked at his numbers and I was pleasantly surprised so I decided to include him here.
The idea with trading for Heaney would be that he could serve as an innings eater for the rest of the season now that we have had to send Cade Povich down and with how Kremer and Suazrez have pitched recently.
He also has the kind of strikeout stuff that would be useful in the bullpen so once the playoffs come around he would still be useful.
I hope that the Orioles trade for a top end guy so this next sentence isn’t true but I also think that right now Heaney would be the 3rd best starter on the Orioles which really paints the picture of how dire of a situation that this rotation finds itself in.
As far as what it would take to get Heaney I think we’d be looking at a package similar to what we gave up for Jack Flarherty maybe even a little less considering his career has never had a peak the way Flaherty’s did so maybe 1 prospect in the 20-30 part of the Orioles prospect rankings and another guy that we haven’t heard of. It’s a move I wouldn’t be excited by but I do think would help the team down the stretch of the season.
Jon Gray and Michael Lorenzen
I just wanted to acknowledge that these guys are on the Rangers and could be dealt but that I am not interested.
The Schedule
Neither of these teams have formally thrown in the towel on this season so here are the games leading up to the trade deadline for both of these teams that will be very influential in deciding how big of sellers they will be.
The Blue Jays
3 games vs the Tigers, 3 games vs the Rays, 3 games vs the Rangers and 2 games vs the Orioles
The Rangers
3 games vs the Orioles, 4 games vs the White Sox, 3 games vs the Blue Jays and 1 game vs the Cardinals.
Sop the O’s will play a role in deciding whether or not these teams hit the blow it up button.
Out of the 2 teams the Rangers have the better chance of bouncing back into contention because of their scheduled 4 game set with the White Sox. I give them a pretty good chance of winning all 4 of those games and suddenly finding themselves just a few games out of the division lead meaning it is very important that the Orioles win that series coming out of the all star break. It also means that we will most likely be rooting for the Blue Jays to win the series when these 2 teams play each other.
The Dishwasher 
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