The Orioles are 9-12 in the month of July and after Saturday’s tough loss filled with lowlights the vibes hit a season low. It is unfortunate that right at this moment morale is so low because we should be celebrating that for the first time since the O’s went in the tank not only are they positioned to be buyers at the trade deadline but they are actually buying. Instead the focus is on the fact that the O’s are desperately trying to fumble away the division (and they would have done it already if the Yankees weren’t massive frauds themselves).
This team-wide slide has been characterized by the O’s very best players slumping, only having 2 reliable starters and Craig Kimbrel.
For this post I have focused on the hitters because the issues of the rotation only having 2 reliable starters (now maybe 3 with Eflin) and the bullpen being littered with guys who just aren’t very good will hopefully be fixed by the end of the trade deadline whereas I foresee minimal changes to the position player side of the roster.
I’ve broken down all our position players into a few tiers so we’ll start with the tier that has the most big names.
We Just have to wait it out
I want to start with the guys slumping that we are just going to have to wait out. I think it is interesting to watch people get upset at guys like Adley and Gunnar as they are slumping because what are we going to do about it? We’re not going to trade them and we’re not going to bench them for Mateo and McCann. The only way is through. And these guys’ struggles WILL end. Slumps are a part of baseball. It would be nice if you could count on all your best players all going 4-14 with a homer and 2 walks every series but that’s just not how it works. Now ideally these guys wouldn’t all be slumping at the same time and ideally these slumps won’t last entire months but we don’t always get to live in an ideal world.
Adley Rutschman
Pre July
AVG: .294 OPS: .821
July stats:
AVG: .132 OPS: .498
Whenever I see someone post a question like “Adley is 9-68 this month do we start to worry?” I want to respond in all caps unless the reason for the slump is an injury that will be a problem for the rest of the season then NO! Adley Rutschman is not going to hit .132 for the rest of his career he is going to bounce back and get his OPS back to around .810.
BUT this slump has been going on for an entire month now so it does beg the question “what is going on?” Hyde in his press conferences has mentioned that Adley has been pressing and trying to do too much at the plate but what does that mean?
One thing that was already interesting about Adley’s season before this slump was his new approach at the plate. In previous years he had been a big time plate discipline guy, he always saw a lot of pitches and drew a lot of walks. Last year his BB/K ration was .911 and he was 8th in the league in walks. This year that BB/K ratio is .562 and he will likely finish outside the top 40 in walks.
So Adley was being more aggressive at the plate to start the year and through June this approach was serving him very well. He had essentially traded about 20 points of OBP for 40 points of SLG and a higher batting average which in my opinion is a good trade, I thought his new approach was making him a more effective hitter especially in that 2 hole spot with Gunnar on base in front of him so often.
However in July we have seen Adley’s walk rate increase dramatically and his K rate decrease to the point where for the first time this year he has been walking more than striking out which is a little counterintuitive because when you think of a hitter having the worst slump of his career you don’t usually think that means he cut down on the strike outs.
I think what Hyde means when he says Adley is trying to do too much at the plate is that Adley is trying to have it all. He wants to have his high on base percentage approach and still keep lacing extra base hits and the result is that he is kind of in between where he isn’t striking out as much but he’s not making hard contact with these balls and the result is a lot of soft ground balls to the second baseman.
On top of pressing at the plate Adley has also been experiencing some tough BABIP luck with his July BABIP resting at just .121 which is in part because he is softly grounding out to second a lot but there is some bad luck in there. He’s had a few fly ball outs that would have been homers in other stadiums and he’s hit a few hard liners right at the defense. A .121 BABIP is about as bad as I’ve seen for a hitter of Adley’s caliber so we can feel confident that that will change and some of these balls in play will find the grass.
As far as some of the other splits that get floated out there like his hitting right handed vs left handed splits and his catching vs DHing splits I don’t really care about those. When it comes to switch hitters sometimes it’s tricky to calibrate two different swings. So far in Adley’s career he has mostly been a better left handed hitter but this year he has been much better from the right. He has said several times that for most of his life he’s been better from the right side so to him it probably feels pretty familiar to favor that side. I am sure those left handed stats will find their level. As for the catching vs DHing stats those are just lefty righty splits disguised as catching vs DHing splits. McCann really only plays when they are facing a lefty that will favor his right handed bat meaning that in those games would also bat from his right side which has been his better side which results in Adleys DH numbers looking a lot better than his catching numbers.
Gunnar Henderson
Pre July
AVG: .288 | OBP: .384 | SLG: .604 | OPS: .989
July Stats
AVG: .264 | OBP: .319 | SLG: .391 | OPS: .710
Gunnar’s slump has been interesting because it is first and foremost a power slump. He came into the month of July neck and neck with Judge and Ohtani for the league lead in homers at 26 and so far has only added 2 more to that total. It isn’t just the homers that have dried up but extra base hits of any variety. Henderson has had just 6 XBH in the entire month. This is a guy who we have seen have 4 extra base hits in a single game before so it is highly unusual to see him hit like a slappy singles hitter.
It is also interesting because Gunnar is really the only player on the team who I have heard Hyde mention fatigue multiple times. During June when we were playing 30 games in 31 days Hyde mentioned several times that Henderson specifically was tired. When asked about the guys who played in the all star game being tired Hyde said that wasn’t an excuse for any of them except Henderson. He tried to get Gunnar a day off just 3 days after the all star break and in a more recent press conference talked about having Westburg play short to give him a day off.
Gunnar has also not been afraid to tell the media that he is tired. He always follows it up by saying that it’s not an excuse. My biggest takeaway from all of these comments is that I believe them, I think he is tired and not in a get a single rest day and shake it off type of tired, I think he is dealing with a legitimate fatigue that is impacting him on both offense and defense.
The regular season is a marathon and it wears on guys, especially guys that play physically demanding positions on defense like shortstop, catcher and centerfield. Gunnar has played almost everyday and the place where I imagine someone who runs and dives around as much as Henderson is feeling the fatigue from playing everyday at short the most is in the legs which would make sense because the legs are very important to generating power on offense and they are important for solidifying your base when you are making throws on defense and these are the 2 areas where Gunnar is struggling the most right now.
I don’t believe that competing in the home run derby messed up his swing but I do think that it contributed to him not being as rested coming out of the break, he said as much on the red carpet that he was tired and feeling it in his legs.
So what should the Orioles do about this? They are in a neck and neck race with the Yankees for the division and they need to be putting their best foot forward in every game that they can and Gunnar is a big part of our best foot.
I think that Hyde is pretty aware of the problem and he had the right idea to try to rest him the day before an off day to try to give him an extended break so that his body can get some real recovery. Gunnar is young and I don’t think he would need multiple weeks off to get his body right, maybe just an off day on getaway day before an off day and then rest the first game of the next series to get a full 3 days. I would also recommend sprinkling in a few more days at DH, maybe give Adley a break from DHing when he isn’t catching until his bat heats up again.
The other part of the problem is that the nominal backup shortstop Jorge Mateo is hurt so there isn’t an easy plug and play shortstop on the active roster. Westburg played shortstop in the minors and is probably the best candidate but he’s never played short at the major league level so there could easily be some growing pains.
The dream scenario would be to call up Jackson Holiday to have him be the backup shortstop but he is rehabbing an elbow injury and has been playing mostly second base all year so that could have mixed results as well and is the kind of thing that if it doesn’t go well now your top prospects career is off to a really rough start.
I don’t want to make too big a deal out of this, Gunnar’s wRC+ this month is 104 which basically means that a slump for Gunnar Henderson is when he’s only slightly above league average. He’s made some errors in the past few weeks but he’s also made some incredible plays, in total he’s been a positive player. I’m just saying he needs a few days off and a few days at DH here and there for the rest of the season and he’ll be back to MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson.
Jordan Westburg
Pre July Stats
AVG: .281 | OBP: .332 | SLG: .505 | OPS: .837
July Stats
AVG: .210 | OBP: .238 | SLG: .420 | OPS: .658
Jordan Westburg’s July slump is a difficult one to diagnose. The number that jumped out to me was his BABIP dropped over .100 points and his slugging dropped significantly as well but his homers this month is in line with most months this year in fact if he hits 1 more during this Jays series he’ll tie his career high for homers in the month.
From watching him what has stood out is that he is hitting a lot of firm ground balls right at the third baseman resulting in some very quick outs. Westburg is a guy that when he’s hitting is spraying the ball all over the yard but most of his doubles (18/22) are to the pull side which means he is usually hitting them over the third baseman’s head. So to me that signals that he is just struggling to hit the ball in the air.
This can happen for a number of reasons, over the course of a long season a muscle gets sore or tweaked and it messes up your swing a little bit and your line drive doubles down the line turn into routine grounders. I trust Westburg, who’s agent Scott Boras called the hardest working player in the league, to get in the cage and figure it out and actually there is a good chance he already has. Most of the damage to his numbers was done in a 6 game hitless stretch in the middle of the month and in the last 2 games he has a homer and single that went right over the left side of the infield.
Ryan Mountcastle
Pre July Stats
AVG: .273 | OBP: .317 | SLG: .460 | OPS: .777
July Stats
AVG: .258 | OBP: .265 | SLG: .333 | OPS: .598
Mountcastle is possibly a controversial addition to the just wait it out tier of the slump because he is in some trade rumors and it is possible that he may not be in the Elias’ long term plans but until he is traded I am going to treat Mounty like an important part of this core.
His July numbers are perplexing, he managed to juice up the batting average with 2 good series against the Marlins and Padres here in the last week so similar to what I said about Westburg it is possible he has already come out the other side of his slump.
We know that Mountcastle is a streaky hitter and this appears to have been a bad streak and hopefully we are about to see a hot streak. Gunnar mentioned on the Pardon My Take podcast that Ryan has been saying that he is saving his homers for when it matter this year and I hope that is true but he only has 1 homer since June 8th only had 3 extra base hits all of July so we really need to see the power tic back up.
As far as Mountcastle getting traded I think it could be good for him because he has been Walltimore’s favorite victim and I think the park changing like that not only impacts his numbers by stealing homers but it also has made it so he’s had to change his approach and even though he has done it pretty successfully and become a very good at going to the opposite field I think the optimized version of Ryan Mountcastle hits about .250 with 35 homers mostly pulled over the left field wall and he just can’t be that guy for us and that has to be frustrating. So if he got moved to a team with a more reasonable left field wall I think he could be even better than what we’ve seen.
On the other hand the Oriole’s can’t field an entire lineup of left handed hitters just because of the wall in left and Mountcastle has proven he can hit the other way and be effective as a right handed hitter in Camden Yards and he does have the raw power to get over the wall in right so maybe we don’t want to give up on him. Some fans want to see Coby Mayo as our right handed first baseman and while it is possible he has a higher ceiling than Mountcastle it is likely he will experience many of the same issues battling that wall.
Anyway all this to say that Mountcastle will hit homers again whether as an Orioles or a Mariner or a Tiger or whatever.
Thank you kings
Before I go on to talk about the guys that I do have serious concerns about, I want to quickly highlight 3 hitters that have been carrying the team through this really tough month.
Anthony Santander now leads the team in homers, he is red hot, he’s taking good at bats and he’s been by far the best hitter in the lineup for almost 2 months.
Ryan O’Hearn has been super consistent, he also takes really good at bats and it feels like he is impossible to strike out while at the same time getting plenty of extra base hits which is a tough line to walk. I would be interested in seeing him hit a few more homers just because with how good he is at hitting the ball hard if he just tweaked his launch angle ever so slightly it feels like he could pop balls over the wall in right pretty regularly but with the success he’s having with his current approach it’s probably best to leave it alone.
Colton Cowser is back baby! After a red hot April it took awhile for his numbers to come down to Earth but his monthly spits in May and June were really bad and people were calling for him to be optioned. It is good to see him get rolling again. The other day he hit a homer off a changeup which is a great sign because pitchers had been killing him with offspeed stuff. I’ve said this before but after seeing how much better Cowser got in the offseason after a disappointing debut I am confident he is the kind of worker that will figure things out.
He did appear to hurt himself on a swing yesterday and then he struck out three times in a row so that is something to keep an eye on.
You’re killing me Smalls
When your best hitters are struggling it really highlights how bad the worst hitters are. When a team is firing on all cylinders and their best guys are putting runs on the board it feels ok to have a few guys at the bottom of the order who don’t produce much and when they do it feels like you are getting an added boost but when those top guys struggle like the Orioles’ top guys have struggled then it becomes very frustrating when the bottom of the order is just giving away outs.
Ramon Urias
AVG: .236 | OPS: .672 | HR: 4 | WAR: 0.5 | OPS+: 95 | wRC+: 94
Funnily enough Ramon is having a pretty good July compared to some of our best players but even with a pretty good month he has still been a below league average hitter. On top of the poor offense he has also been poor on defense which is brutal when you are a guy that only plays a few times a week and your best attribute is your glove you can’t be bad at defense and he has been. Also one of Ramon’s supposed strengths is as a utility man but it appears they really only want him at 3rd and when he comes into the game they always make Westburg move the 2nd where he is worse so we’re also not getting any flexibility from having him on the roster.
He’s also blocking Coby Mayo and Jackson Holiday for an infield spot, earlier this year I wrote that Ramon’s spot on the team was pretty safe because we don’t want to call up guys like Holiday and Mayo just to give them a bench role but I think the math on that changes as we get close to the playoffs and those two guys would provide upside and flexibility that Ramon just doesn’t. Even if you couldn’t play Coby Mayo at 3rd he could be someone that comes in as a right handed pinch hitter which is something you could never use Urias.
Urias has simply outlived his role on this team, there was a time a few years ago when a league average bat and a plus glove on the infield was a huge upgrade for the Orioles but 2024 is not that time.
Jorge Mateo
AVG: .229 | OPS: .267 | HR: 5 | WAR: 0.7 | OPS+: 91 | wRC+: 86
It feels bad to include Jorge on this part because he was having a very solid Jorge Mateo season until he got bonked on the head by Cedric Mullins and since then he had struggled mightily and then he hurt his arm sliding into Gunnar and he’s been out ever since. So a couple tough breaks for Mateo and right now he is on the 10 day IL so he’s not even on the active roster. But in general his level of play since the concussion has not been high enough to warrant regular playing time. I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that the concussion caused these problems but he is working on a third straight season of having a .267 OBP which is pretty miraculous to be that consistently mediocre at the plate.
I know his speed is valuable but in a playoff series how many of our regular players need to be pinch ran for? Maybe Tony Adley and Kjerstad? I’d like to keep those guys in the lineup so unless it’s a really specific situation I don’t see pinch running being a huge part of our strategy. Also the O’s just traded for Christian Pache who is similar to Mateo in the sense that his best tools are speed and defense so it is possible that we already have our speed guy.
With Mateos injury it is possible he just hangs out on the IL for the rest of the season but most likely he will at some point be ready for a return and I just don’t know how we can justify him and Pache both being on the roster.
Cedric Mullins
AVG: .219 | OPS: .265 | HR: 11 | WAR: 0.7 | OPS+: 89 | wRC+: 85
I really really don’t want to have Cedric Mullins in this section of the blog. I can envision a scenario where he is a playoff hero and people are saying can you believe people wanted him traded or sent down. But his offense has been just brutal this year and I am to the point where it feels like you can’t justify keeping young guys out of the lineup to keep giving Cedric Mullins opportunities.
His second half after coming back from injury was brutal last year and his entire season this year has been rough so we now have about a year’s sample size of Cedric Mullins playing quite poorly. I think he does have something to be worried about with the Pache addition as much as Mateo because one difficult part of Cedric struggling is that all our outfielders are left handed so it is hard to get Ced in the lineup against a right handed pitcher without squeezing out Kjerstad or Cowser and then we’re not getting our youngs guys at bats in advantageous situations and if we do the opposite then we aren’t helping Mullins get right. So Pache will make it possible for us to have a right handed option in centerfield.
I would like for Mullins to at least stick around as the 4th outfielder for the rest of the season but it feels like unless there is a dramatic turnaround in the final month of the season his time as the face of the Orioles outfield has come to an end. I hope it’s not and Mullins makes me look foolish.
James McCann
AVG: .216 | OPS: .267 | HR: 3 | WAR: -0.1 | OPS+: 71 | wRC+: 69
Of course I am writing this after maybe a top 5 Orioles James McCann day at the plate of all time but that day doesn’t change the fact that McCann has been brutal at the plate this year.
Backup catcher is not a position where you typically expect to get a ton of offense but so far this season McCann has given us pretty much nothing. He’s been in the lineup a lot too (because they are trying to keep Adley fresh which I agree with) so it’s not like a super small sample size of nothing.
So you think wow he’s doing nothing at the plate surely he makes up for it by being elite on defense a la Austin Hedges but unfortunately that is not the case as McCann has been bad at every aspect of catching that catchers are metriced on.
Maybe I should have included McCann in the just wait it out section because I think the reality is that we are not going to use resources to upgrade the backup catcher at the deadline so McCann is just going to continue to be a part of the team. I didn’t include him in the wait it out section because I think the guys in that section are going to bounce back and I expect we are going to just get more of the same from McCann.
Possible Sparks
Here are the guys I hope we see get into the lineup more often than the guys in the previous section. Obviously with them being young guys there is nothing promised about them and even if they pop at some point we should expect there to be growing pains as progress is not always linear.
Heston Kjerstad
Silent J was on a tear heading into the All Star break and it looked like he was going to force somebody out of the usual starting spot in the outfield and then he got drilled in the head by a 97 mph fastball and he had to go on the IL and since he came back he hasn’t been quite the same.
In baseball concussions aren’t super common but they can have pretty disastrous consequences. Your eyes and your ability to focus are super important especially to hitting and that is exactly what concussions impact. Last year we saw Anthony Rizzo have by far the worst year of his career after a concussion, already this year we saw Mateos performance take a dive following a concussion. Kjerstad’s concussion seemed like a bad one too they sad he passed out the day after he got hit which is NOT GOOD, now he says he feels like his normal stuff but concussions are weird and I wouldn’t blame him if he’s not quite the same for the rest of the year.
I just want to see him have a 2-4 day with a homer and I’ll feel better. As to why he could be a spark as long as he’s actually healthy he has an incredibly impressive bat that I think at it’s peak will be a 40 homer a year type of bat and that kind of power is super valuable. We saw the Rangers intentionally walk him in like his 25th game. A healthy Kjerstad in the middle of this lineup is is a game changer.
Connor Norby
Norby had a bad series against the Padres which is unfortunate because before that he had played really well in his limited opportunities. I think what stands out with Norby is how bad he wants to stick in the Majors. This is his 3rd season in triple-A because as I’ve said before he’s our most blocked prospect but injuries and poor performance by some of the guys ahead of him have cleared the way for him to have something of an extended run in the starting lineup.
Norby is a hitting first prospect, we’re still dealing with some funky small sample size so I don’t care much where his current MLB slash line sits. What has been interesting is that the power has translated immediately which is something a lot of new prospects in our system have struggled with.
On the negative side his approach is a tad aggressive as he hasn’t drawn a walk yet and we saw against the Padres he was expanding the zone swinging at head high fastballs. He’ll have to work on that and hopefully getting the green light to start everyday at second for a few weeks allows him to calm down and have a real approach.
One of the best parts of Norby is that with him being a second baseman it allows Westburg to play his best position at third so he fits in really well around our current guys on the infield. Also he’s right handed and we don’t have many of those that can hit on the roster. With Holiday and Mayo coming up soon and both being more highly regarded prospects Norby’s long term fit with O’s is iffy and it’s even possible he’s included in a trade today but in this moment he’s a good fit and I think until Mayo or Holiday come up and prove that they are better than him he should play everyday.
He can also play outfield if the situation calls for it so he provides some realm utility value.
Jackson Holliday
Let’s try this again! Holliday’s first major league stint was disappointing for sure but he went back down, he’s worked on his approach and he is gearing up for a return. He had an elbow injury that he’s had to come back from and he’s only recently started playing the field again but in just a few weeks that will be far enough behind him so as to not be a concern.
I think this second call up could be a lot better for Holliday because the citation would be very different. Instead of being called up as the favorite to win rookie of the year as the Orioles next number 1 prospect following in the footsteps of Adley and Gunnar this time it there will be less pressure on every at bat and it will be more of a what can you give us platooning with Norby at second and playing backup shortstop to give Gunnar a breather once a week or so. They’ll be able to put Holliday in advantageous situations and get him off to a better start and hopefully once he’s seen a couple balls fall in the outfield grass he’ll get rolling and be the star everyone hopes he can be.
Remember that Adley, Gunnar and Cowser all struggled at the plate in their first stretches of time at the big leagues and they were all years older than Holliday was when he got called up so there is plenty of time for him to get right.
Coby Mayo
Coby Mayo has been raking in triple A all year. He hits for average, he hits for power, he gets on base and he’s right handed he seems like a perfect candidate to improve this lineup immediately.
The stated reason that he isn’t already on the team is because of his defense where he is supposedly a bit shaky fielding at third and he has something of a wild arm. They’ve been trying to get him reps at first where he hasn’t been a lockdown defender either.
The defensive issue could be enough to make it so they just don’t trust him at third and if he were to come up as a first baseman that would cause an immediate log jam at first with Mountcastle.
I think the clearest path is that he comes up when rosters expand and mostly DHs and pinch hits for lefties with some limited action at first and third when we need to rest guys and you see if his bat catches on. If the bat is immediately viable at the major league level then you have a tough decision when it comes to the playoff roster but if he comes up and takes his lumps then you feel good about letting him get experience and you look forward to seeing him play more in 2025.
Kyle Stowers
I almost didn’t include Kyle Stowers here because with him getting yanked around between triple A and majors and still being currently in triple A at 26 years old despite the fact that he has played well in his time in the Majors this year it feels somewhat obvious that Orioles don’t value him as a long term or even really a short term piece.
Hyde even said in the press conference that Stowers would get a shot either with the O’s or with another team and that is the first time I can remember Hyde ever acknowledging by name that we might trade someone. It was very nonchalant too just rather matter of fact like yeah he might have to get traded to get a shot.
I decided to include him because I think all of these guys that I have listed as potential sparks are going to be under consideration to get one of the final spots on the playoff roster and I think it will come down to who plays the best in the final month of the season and assuming it’s a fair race I would give Stowers as good chance to be the best player out of any of these guys over the last 2 months of the season so I’d say he has a chance.
As far as what Stowers brings he is a good hitter and a decent fielder I feel like the best thing he provides at this exact moment is Heston Kjerstad insurance because I still don’t feel 100% certain that he’s going to be ok post concussion so I like that we have another left handed corner outfielder who can hit major league pitching in the wings in case Kjerstad becomes a situation.
One thing you will notice is that there are more sparks than can fit on the roster even after rosters expand. Norby and Kjerstad are already there, one of Jackson or Mayo should be up soon to replace Ramon Urias and then there will be one more spot that opens up when rosters expand. So I imagine that either some of these guys will get traded or some of the guys on the current roster that we don’t expect to be traded will get traded.
Whatever move gets made will impact what prospect will have the best chance of filling that role, if it is Mountcastle that gets traded that feels like a move to free up space for Mayo, if Mullins gets moved that feels like more room for Kyle Stowers and at the same time it could be Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby in a deal to bring in another starter which would be a different kind of spark.
The Dishwasher 
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