The way that rooting for a good team playing below their ability affects your mental health should be studied because it cannot be good for you to swing back and forth between “it’s over” and “we’re back” on a day to day basis for two straight months.
When the Orioles were staring down the barrel of a 7 game stretch against the Astros and Dodgers while the Yankees were lined up against the Rockies and Nationals I thought the Orioles should accept their fate as a wildcard team and start resting their everyday players two or three times a week and try to get to the playoffs as healthy as possible to try to have a 2024 Rangers miracle run.
When the Orioles came out the other side of those games still within a game of the Yankees I began to imagine a 6 game winning streak against the Rockies and White Sox that would end with us taking back the lead in the division.
After the Orioles blew a game to the Rockies to fall back to a game and half behind the Yankees (please free me from Craig Kimbrel) I was walking through the Coors field parking lot thinking that the O’s should preemptively put Gunnar and Burnes on the IL to protect them from the freak injury bug that has been contagious around the Birds.
BUT just a few days later after a few games against the White Sox the Orioles are back on top of the AL standings with 22 games left in the season and a series against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium and I have completely changed my mind and I have decided that the Orioles should go for broke to win the division.
While I’m riding the high of our first 3 game winning streak since the All Star break I want to look at these 7 remaining series and what the path is for the Orioles to become back to back AL Champions for the first time since 1974. (My mom was 4 months old when that happened btw)
Series 1 Orioles vs Rays
The Rays are having a rare down year and find themselves 7 games out of a wild card spot. Their moves at the deadline signaled that they were no longer interested in the 2024 playoffs even when they were just 4 games out of the wild card, so this is a team that does not have much to play for and that lack of motivation has shown as they are 13-17 since the trade deadline and have fallen below .500 on the season.
On top of the lack of motivation and the fact that the Rays sold most of their top performers at the deadline the Orioles have played very well against the Rays this year putting up a record of 8-2 and if the Orioles can win 2 out of 3 in this series it will be their best season against the Rays ever.
The biggest issue for the Orioles will be game 1 on Friday where right now Dean Kremer is scheduled to pitch. Even though Dean avoided serious injury after wearing a screaming comebacker off his wrist on Saturday Hyde said he would likely miss his next start so it will be interesting to see how the Orioles navigate having yet another hole in their rotation. There is an off day on Thursday so they could move Eflin and Burnes up a day, they also could recall Trevor Rogers who just had an encouraging start in triple A and there is also some buzz around the name Brandon Young who has pitched well in triple A all year but has been especially dominant over his past few starts.
This is another series where if you are the Orioles you have to be thinking sweep if not take 2 out of 3 or it feels like you’ve really fumbled on opportunity. When you are facing a struggling out of contention team with 2 of your best starters on the mound you have to win that series.
Yankee Corner
The Yankees will be facing the red hot Cubs at Wrigley. Right now the Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 granted that those games were against the Marlins, the Nationals and the Pirates who are all in “can we fast forward to the end of the season” mode but they still took care of business and taking care of business has put them back in the hunt for a spot in the postseason.
So the Cubs have hot bats, a solid rotation, home field advantage and something to play for which could make for a tough series for the Yankees. I could see them easily going 1-2 vs the Cubs.
Series 2 Orioles @ Red Sox
We are starting to get to the point where looking at how a team is doing right now is not super useful but I’ll still mention that right now the Boston Red Sox are in a tailspin. They are 3-9 in their last 12 (mostly against non playoff teams) and they are currently riding a 4 game losing streak. So you would think that this sluggish stretch would have removed them from playoff contention BUT the Royals are on a 7 game losing streak so the Sox are just 4.5 out of the last wild card AND after this series against the Mets they get to play the White Sox at home so that is an almost guaranteed W3 heading into their series with the O’s and with the Twins and Royals playing each other they will be guaranteed to make up ground in the standings. So the O’s will get to face a reinvigorated Red Sox team fighting for their playoff lives.
The Red Sox are a pretty good matchup for the Orioles because they have a weak pitching staff and bullpen so the O’s high powered offense is able to keep them in games vs the Sox even if their own pitching problems rear their head. This series could go a few different ways, I can see a version of this series where the Sox come into this series 5.5 out of the wild card and they just let go of the rope and it’s total domination and I can also see them coming into this series just 2.5 out of the wild card and catch an Orioles team fat and happy off of wins against the White Sox and Rays by surprise and take the series. I’ll split the difference with my prediction and say O’s win 2 out of 3.
Yankee Corner
The Yankees will be having an almost identical series against the Royals, this will be the rare series where both teams will be peaking at the out of town scoreboard in between innings. The Royals will be desperately clinging to their wild card spot but they stink on the road so I think the Yankees will take care of their business and win this series handily.
Series 3 Orioles @ Tigers
This is tricky because the Tigers have been the surprise team of the second half and after a 17-11 record in August they are now 70-69 and just as much in the hunt for the last wild card spot as the aforementioned Red Sox.
The Tigers are a scary team to me because, spoiler alert, we have 6 games left against them so our success or lack of success against the Tigers will have a major impact on whether or not the Orioles win the division.
Tarik Skubal is a monster and the Tigers win almost all of his starts, Riley Greene is having a breakout year, Spencer Torkelson is back from the minors and he looks like the Spencer Torkelson that hit 30 bombs in 2023, and Kerry Carpenter does damage when he plays so there are of a like any team that is having a late season miracle run they seem to be getting just enough from the other guys on the team.
As far as the legitimacy of their late season push it is fair to say that they took advantage of a 7 straight games against the White Sox and Angels and two series against the death spiraling Mariners but it also included big series wins against the Yankees and the Red Sox so they won’t be afraid of a big bad AL East team coming into their building.
I think this series could be trouble for the O’s so I’ll make my prediction that they drop this one winning only 1 out of the 3 games.
Yankee Corner
The Yankees will be play the Red Sox at this time and this is an example of where being the Yankees isn’t always an advantage because whether or not by this point the Red Sox are still in playoff contention they are still going to give the Yankees their very best shot, the games will be at Yankee stadium so I’ll predict a 4 game series split.
Series 4 Orioles vs Giants
This will only be the third time ever that the San Francisco Giants come to Baltimore. So that is interesting. It may be the only interesting thing about this series because the Giants are in a distant 4th in their division and also 7.5 games out of the last wild card spot.
They’ve lost 3 series in a row and before that they failed to sweep the White Sox which is kind of like losing a series. Obviously it’s baseball and those guys get paid to play too, but by the time the Orioles play them in mid September they will likely have their tee times and dinner reservations all set up in Cancun.
I will say that if the Orioles are unfortunate enough to get stuck going against Logan Webb and Blake Snell there is a world where we lose this series. Webb might be checked out with the Cy Young out of reach and his contract all tied up but Snell will be out to prove something and he’s the exact kind of pitcher that would put up 7 no hit innings against the Orioles. I’ll predict the Orioles win 2 out of the 3.
Yankee Corner
The Yankees will be playing the sad sad sad Mariners this same week which feels like a series where they sweep. If Judge and Soto where they only 2 guys to get hits the whole series and all the other Yankees were automatic outs they could probably generate enough runs to build a lead that even Clay Holmes couldn’t blow against this Mariners team.
Series 5 Orioles vs Tigers
I already talked about the Tigers so I won’t relitigate everything I said but one thing I will say is that the way our two series against the Tigers lineup is that we will either face Tarik Skubal twice or we won’t face him at all which will be a massive difference. As of right now just using caveman math you can predict that Skubal won’t start in either series but if they do any funny business and push a start back a day he could start in both series. To hedge this possibility I going the cowards way out and I will say that the O’s will win this series 2 games to 1 and perfectly split the Tigers games 3-3.
Now if we dodge Skubal both series I would probably want the Orioles to win 4 or 5 of those 6 games but out of respect for Skubal and in an attempt to curb my rampant homerism I will predict the 3-3 split.
Yankee Corner
The Yankees will be playing the Oakland A’s in their second to last home series as the Oakland A’s. This series could be sneaky tough for the Yankees because the A’s are not as bad as you might think based on how they are run and headlines they tend to generate.
What makes the A’s tough for the Yankees is that it is a matchup of the A’s greatest strength, their hitting and especially hitting for power against the Yankees frequently shaky rotation. The Yankees rotation has decent numbers on the season but besides Gerrit Cole it feels like any of the other guys that they have in the rotation are liable to put up a 3 inning 6 ER line.
So I think the Yankees will win 2 of these games but in the other one they lose in a blowout.
Series 6 Orioles @ Yankees
This series is likely where the winner of the AL East is decided, both teams should be coming in hot off back to back series wins, both teams season win total should be sitting in the low 90s and whoever manages to win this series will most likely take the division and get to rest while the other toils in the wildcard against the Twins or the Royals.
This series is too far away to do a detailed breakdown of who will likely pitch and who is hot at the plate but I will say that by this late in September the Orioles might have added Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and Danny Coulombe so we might see the healthiest Orioles team in months which just the thought of makes me feel much more confident.
The Yankees to their credit by then should have Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, will most likely have called up Jasson Dominguez and DFA’d DJ LeMahieu so they will also be feeling reinforced.
I will say that if the Yankees win the series by a 2-1 margin the Orioles will still hold the tiebreaker so if that is the case then the results of the last series will still be very important.
Series 7 Orioles @ Twins
This will be an interesting one because there are a multitude of possible outcomes. If the Orioles win the series against the Yankees and have the tiebreaker and few games lead for the division then they won’t have much to play for and we’ll see starters just go a few innings and we’ll see the bench out early in each game and guys like Adley and Gunnar who have played almost every day may not even play.
If the Orioles lose the series to the Yankees but the division is still within reach and the Twins are all but locked into the 5th wild card spot like they appear to be now then they might not compete hard and that would allow the Orioles to take a series that they desperately need.
There is also a possibility that both teams need the series because the O’s lost to the Yankees and the Twins are fighting for either their own division or a wild card spot and we see these 2 teams play a de facto playoff series which would give me gray hairs but would be great drama.
Should it become a do or die series the Twins are not a fun matchup because they are pretty well rounded they have the pitchers in Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober to hold those O’s offense in check and they have a dominant bullpen and if they are healthy then they have an offensively devastating lineup.
Fingers crossed they opt to prioritize health and just coast to the 5th wild card spot and we get a freebie to end our season.
Yankee Corner
The Yankees will have the Pirates at home who are already all but eliminated and will most likely have shut down Skenes and their other valuable young players by the last series of the year so the Yankees will most likely coast to a an easy sweep to end their season which makes winning the previous series even more important for the Orioles.
The Dishwasher 
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