10 years ago the Orioles won 96 games and the AL East Division title. They beat the Tigers and their Cy Young rotation in the ALDS and then all that stood between them and the World Series was an 89 win Royals team. That Royals team ended up doing more than just standing in the way as they punted the O’s out of the postseason in a 4 game sweep. The Royals went on to lose the World Series but came back and won it all the next year. The Orioles on the other hand made it to one more wild card game in 2016 before going into the tank for the next 7 years.
These 2 teams have been pretty similar over the last decade. They both peaked in the 2014-2016 seasons, they both put up back to back 100 loss seasons in 2018-2019 and both would have done it again in 2020 if that had been an option. They famously had the first and second picks of the 2019 draft when the Orioles took Adley Rutschman and the Royals took Bobby Witt Jr (I would mention all the other years where both teams had top picks but the Royals didn’t hit on any of those so it’s not that interesting except to say that drafting high in the first round is not as easy as Mike Elias makes it seem).
Over the last few seasons the Orioles ticked back up towards contending while Royals continued to scuffle but this year the Royals had a historic break out and bounced back from losing 106 games last year while the O’s stumbled a bit and now they will meet in the 4-5 matchup of the Wild Card Series.
There will be many interesting storylines for this series, I already mentioned Rutschman and Witt going 1-2 in the 2019 draft but in addition to that we get Witt vs Henderson in the battle of the best young shortstops in the league, Salvador Perez being the last remaining member of the Royals World Series roster, and 2 of the top 5 pitchers in the American League this year in Burnes and Ragans going in game 1.
Game 1 preview
Here are the stats and splits for Ragans that I think are relevant to this Tuesday’s matchup:
Cole Ragans
ERA: 3.14 | FIP: 2.99 | xFIP: 3.47 | WHIP: 1.14 | K/9: 10.77 | BB/9: 3.24 | HR/9: .72
Not a lot to love here as an Orioles fan to be honest. The most interesting thing here to me is the difference between FIP and xFIP but I would imagine that is at least partially due to playing in KC which has a massive outfield and this series will be played in Baltimore where the predominantly right handed lineup will have to contend with the furthest left field wall in all of Baseball so I don’t think that’s going to be a problem.
Away splits
ERA: 2.87 | FIP: 3.13 | xFIP: 3.55 | WHIP: 1.08 | K/9: 9.99 | BB/9: 3.06 | HR/9: .69
And what do you know his stats are even better on the road. This also makes sense because even though KC fans will complain about their players not matching the home run totals of other stars because of their big outfield it is actually a hitters park because there is so much grass for balls to land safely. Interesting to note that Ks go down on the road but so do walks and home runs so it’s possible that is an intentional trade off since on the road you are more likely to run into a hitters park.
L/R Splits
Vs Lefties: .276/.341/.382 – wOBA: .320
Vs Righties: .195/.274/.321 – wOBA: .265
Obviously the lefty stats come from a much smaller sample size but it is interesting to see that on the season lefties have had some success against Ragans considering that the Orioles’ best hitters are mostly left handed.
Away L/R Splits
Vs Lefties: .159/.227/.217 – wOBA: .205
Vs Righties: .208/.291/.324 – wOBA: .276
With these stats the sample size is even smaller but these are more what you would expect from nasty lefty like Ragans with LHH barely able to hit him and when they do it’s for almost no power. It’s a pretty stark contrast from his season numbers vs lefties so that makes me wonder if there was a bad game or two against lefties at home that really juiced those numbers but I don’t care quite enough to go through each game log and find out what lefties popped him at home.
Opponent OPS by month
April: .649
May: .561
June: .649
July: .664
August: .662
September: .515
I wanted to see these to see if there was a month where he “padded” his stats or if he was wearing down with this being his first full season of being a starting pitcher but the answer to both of those hopes was nope he’s been consistent all year and he was at his very best in September when the team was fighting for a playoff spot.
Times through the order stats
1st time: .179/.247/.281 – wOBA: .238
2nd time: .248/.311/.407 – wOBA: .312
3rd time: .215/.319/.307 – wOBA: .286
So there’s a clear uptick in the opponent’s stats from the first to the second time through the lineup which is very normal and then he is better the third time through the lineup which is also pretty normal since starting pitchers pitch to the lineup a second time in every start and they only see the lineup a third time if they are “feelin it” or that particular lineup just can’t touch your stuff which results in those third time through the lineup numbers looking a lot better than the second time through the lineup stats.
Day game splits
Just kidding
Orioles Specific splits
Start 1 at Camden: 6.1 IP, 1H, 0 ER, 7K
Start 2 at Kauffman: 1.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 4 K
These 2 starts couldn’t be more different. In one he was totally dominant and in the other he was totally dominated. Now both of these starts are from April and we know that the Orioles team from April and the Orioles team that will play tomorrow are very different so maybe the stats from these starts don’t matter but it is interesting to see that the second time this lineup got to see Ragans they gave him his worst start of the season by far. This will undoubtedly stick in Ragan’s mind as he prepares to face us for the third time this season.
Here are the stats of the the Orioles position players against Ragans:
Gunnar Henderson: 1-6
Jordan Westburg: 2-4
Anthony Santander: 1-6, 2B
Ryan Mountcastle: 1-4, BB
Adley Rutschman: 4-6, 2B, BB
Ramon Urias: 1-4, 2B
Cedric Mullins: 0-2
James McCann: 1-4
Emmanuel Rivera: 0-1, BB
(O’Hearn, Cowser, Holliday and Kjerstad have never faced Ragans)
So what jumps out is that Adley sees this guy very well but it feels like you have to give the context that Adley has not played nearly to the level he was playing at in April so does the fact that he is 4-6 against Ragans matter? Westburg’s 2-4 stands out as well. It’s potentially concerning that nobody has homered off him since our offensive approach for the entire season has been swing for the fences but maybe that is the lesson the Orioles learned between game 1 and 2 of the Ragans experience because when they got to him it was with a barrage of singles (most of those 1’s you see in our guys stats are from the second inning of Ragans’ second start against us)
In summary Ragans is going to be a tough opponent for the O’s. There isn’t a stat that doesn’t like him, he’s got a fastball that can touch 100 miles per hour from the left side, he simultaneously strikes out a ton of guys while also preventing hard contact and he’s even better on the road than at home. Even though the Orioles gave him his worst start of the season I wouldn’t be surprised at all of this is a low scoring pitching duel going into the 7th inning. The O’s have got to be patient and try to drive up his pitch count and get to the Royals’ softer bullpen as soon as possible.
Burnes vs the Royals Lineup
The Royals lineup of hitters is not their strength, especially since Vinnie Pasquantino went down with an injury earlier this month. They’ve picked up some veterans to fill some of the injury holes like Tommy Pham and Yuli Gurriel. They don’t have a ton of left handed hitters to put in the lineup to go against Burnes which might work to their advantage because Burnes is so good against lefties. Here is more or less who I would expect to be in the lineup:
C: Salvador Perez – .271/.330/.456 – OPS+: 119
1B: Yuli Gurriel – .241/.338/.296 – OPS+: 82
2B: Michael Massey – .259/.294/.449 – OPS+: 105
SS: Bobby Witt Jr – .332/.389/.588 – OPS+: 171
3B: Paul DeJong – .227/.276/.427 – OPS+: 97
LF: MJ Melendez – .206/.273/.400 – OPS+: 87
CF: Kyle Isbel – .229/.287/.367 – OPS+: 83
RF: Tommy Pham .248/.205/.368 – OPS+: 91
DH: Robbie Grossman .212/.322/.293 – OPS+: 79
And on the bench we’ll see
Adam Frazier: .202/.282/.294 – OPS+: 63
Maikel Garcia: .231/.281/.332 – OPS+: 72
Freddy Fermin: .271/.319/.366 – OPS+: 93
Garrett Hampson: .230/.275/.300 – OPS+: 63
Hunter Renfroe: .229/.297/.322 – OPS+: 92
We’ll see if they feel like getting really platoony if they jam Adam Frazier into the starting lineup. Looking at their game logs it seems like they are not afraid to go with lots of different lineups and positions and mid game substitutions so don’t be surprised to see Maikel Garcia (who is usually an everyday starter but wait until you see Paul DeJong’s numbers vs Burnes), Freddie Fermin and Hunter Renfroe cycled into the lineup. Part of having a pretty bad lineup from a hitting perspective is that there isn’t much difference between guys 5-9 in the lineup and guys 10-14.
Saying the Royals have a bad hitting lineup is not a dig or me talking trash before an upcoming matchup, it’s a fact, they have numbers that measure these things and the Royals offense doesn’t measure out well in any of them.
Which of course will make it all the more frustrating when they hit a bunch of bloop singles off of Burnes and chase him from the game and then someone like Garrett Hampson with his OPS of .576 hits a 3 run bomb in the 8th to put the game out of reach. Anyway back to talking about how bad the Royals are at hitting this year.
As you look at the lineup there is just a shocking amount of OPSs that start with 5 and 6 and OBPs that start with 2, the whole team doesn’t get on base or hit for power how on earth are they in the playoffs?? It feels like baseball reference is playing some sort of prank on me and that if I refresh the page again there will be some sort of pop up that says just kidding, here are the actual numbers.
They have exactly 3 healthy players who have an OPS+ over 100 compared to the Orioles 10 but there are some trouble spots for Burnes historically in this lineup. Here are the Royals career numbers vs Burnes.
Salvador Perez: 6-12, 1HR
Michael Massey: 0-2
Bobby Witt: 2-9, 2B
Maikel Garcia: 2-9, 2B
MJ Melendez: 1-7, 2B
Kyle Isbell: 1-4
Hunter Renfroe: 1-8
Freddy Fermin: 0-5
Adam Frazier: 5-21
Garrett Hampson:1-5
Paul Dejong: 7-22, 2HR, 2B
Tommy Pham: 2-7, BB
Yuli Gurriel: 0-2
Robbie Grossman: 0-3
Bobby Witt Jr
Bobby has had such a good season he deserves his own section of this. He just wrapped up a 10 WAR season which is crazy but I don’t even know if that truly captures how important he is to this team. As I looked at this lineup I tried to imagine where they would be without Witt Jr and I decided that the team win total would be in the mid 60s so not that this is official that puts him at about 21 DWAR (Dishwasher WAR). You would think that the strategy would be to pitch around him and walk him as much as you can but if you put him on first he could easily steal 2 bags and then score on a weak grounder. He sprays the ball all over the field and hits for power and doesn’t strike out. He is an almost perfect player and he creates a lot of problems not to mention that he’s going to be a vacuum at short.
Salvador Perez and Paul DeJong
These guys have such good numbers against Burnes I decided to give them their own section as well. Burnes’s one weakness this season is that he has given up more homers in the first inning than any other and both of these guys see him well and hit him for power. Burnes will have to be very careful pitching to them early in the game to avoid putting the O’s in an early hole. With Ragans on the mound a 2 run homer in the first could be all the Royals need to carry a lead into the bullpen.
Vinnie Pasquantino
There was a report that Pasquantino was going to try to hit today and see how he felt and that he could possibly come back for this series. Now this is a game 1 preview so I don’t think that it is likely he plays in game 1 just because going from testing it in the cage to starting in a day is a pretty big step. In general it would be huge for the Royals if Pasquantino came back, he gives them a real bat from the left side at the top of the lineup. Again I don’t know if facing Corbin Burnes and his on the hands cutter is the best thing for him 1 day off the injured list but we could see him pinch hit late in the game and then start game 2.
The Bullpen
This is a major area of concern for me going into this series. The Orioles Bullpen has looked shaky the entire second half of the season and they have looked especially shaky the last few weeks of the season. Here are the guys that I expect will be in the bullpen for this series.
Seranthony Dominguez
Yennier Cano
Danny Coulombe
Jacob Webb
Keegan Akin
Cionel Perez
Gregory Soto
Matt Bowman
Cade Povich
Seranthony Dominguez is who is giving me the most concern as he is who the O’s made the closer after Kimbrel completely lost it and although he was good to start his Orioles tenure he has given up a lot of runs. Going back to August 18th Seranthony has given up 9 runs in 13.1 innings which comes out to an ERA just over 6 which is not an ideal number for your closer to be at.
Yennier Cano would be my choice to be the closer but he’s been battling forearm tightness which is not something you want to hear around a key reliever so everytime I refresh my phone I’m worried I’m going to get some sort of terrible IL update.
Cionel Perez has given up 9 runs in his last 9 innings of work and it’s not like he had one game where he gave up 5, he has nicely spread all 9 runs out to be as back breaking as possible.
Matt Bowman had been solid but like many relievers we’ve had perform for a short time this season the shine is starting to wear off after 2 bad outings vs the Yankees.
My confidence in Keegan Akin is never higher than a 6/10.
I have no idea what to expect from Cade Povich out of the bullpen if he’s even on the roster we have so many lefties we might have to leave him off for Bryan Baker or Colin Selby who are fringe roster guys for a reason.
I have scars from what Jacob Webb did in the playoffs last year.
Which basically leaves me with Danny Coulombe, Gregory Soto and assuming health Yennier cano as far as relievers I feel good about giving high leverage innings to. We may have to follow the 2024 Texas Rangers model of just win by enough that it doesn’t matter if the bullpen is bad.
Fortunately Burnes has been very reliable at getting through the 6th if not the 7th so ideally he pitches 6-7 innings and Coulombe, Soto and Cano are all we need to get through game 1. Alternatively if we are winning or losing by a lot that’s right where Keegan Akin excels so he’ll take care of that scenario.
The Royals Bullpen
Here are the names could see out of the Royals pen
Kris Bubic
Lucas Erceg
Michael Lorenzen
Carlos Hernandez
Sam Long
Daniel Lynch
John Schrieber
Angel Zerpa
Brady Singer
Alec Marsh
And maybe Chris Stratton who went on the 15 day IL 16 days ago.
Earlier I said that the Royals have a soft bullpen and what I meant by that is that thee bullpen is soft compared to the rotation which is among the best in baseball but this bullpen still has some really good relievers. Here are the main ones the O’s have to worry about:
Kris Bubic
ERA: 2.67 | FIP: 1.95 | xFIP: 2.04 | WHIP: 1.02 | K/9: 11.57 | BB/9: 1.48 | HR/9: .59
Bubic has successfully completed the transformation from mediocre starter to lights out reliever. This success coincides with him picking up a new slider and ramping up it’s usage. He’s hard to hit for both righties and lefties. Nobody hits him for power and when you look at his expected stats you can see he’s not getting lucky, he’s just like that.
Lucas Erceg
ERA: 3.36 | FIP: 2.53 | xFIP: 3.10 | WHIP: 1.05 | K/9: 10.51 | BB/9: 2.34 | HR/9: .44
Bringing in Lucas Erceg was maybe the most underrated move the trade deadline. He has a blazing fastball, he avoids hard contact and also creates a ton of swing and miss and he doesn’t walk people. I don’t even know what else to say.
So they Royals don’t quite have the Herrera, Davis and Holland trio that terrorized the Orioles a decade ago but if they have a lead going into the 8th their going to feel pretty dang good about winning that game and I don’t know if I can say the same for the O’s
Angel Zerpa
ERA: 3.86 | FIP: 3.97 | xFIP: 3.70 | WHIP: 1.45 | K/9: 8.22 | BB/9: 3.19 | HR/9: 1.01
The counting numbers aren’t quite there for Zerpa like they are for Bubic and Erceg but he’s come on strong at the end of the season and has only given up 1 run in his last 9.1 innings. He throws high 90s from the left side and he induces a ton of ground balls He’s going to be problem for the O’s left handed hitters late in these games.
Game prediction
Before I pick the Orioles to win I want to say that I think it was quite fortuitous that they avoided facing the Tigers. The Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball this year who could probably win game 1 all on his own and then they also have a nasty stable of relief pitchers that totally dominated The O’s earlier this month. They also have more than 2 good hitters in the lineup including the fact that Kerry Carpenter (basically Aaron Judge against righties) would have been in the lineup every game against our all right handed rotation. Also they are in full team of destiny mode which isn’t something I want to invite to Camden Yards.
Anyway it would be great to break the playoff losing streak against the Royals since they are the ones that started it 10 years ago. On the other hand it would be a terrible feeling to have the streak grow to 10 straight losses and have it be bookended by the Royals so there is a lot at stake emotionally for at least the for the fans.
I want to be careful as I confidently declare that the Orioles should win this game and the series because I felt so strongly the O’s would beat the Rangers last year and we saw how that went but as good as Ragans is I think Burnes is better and the disparity between the 2 lineups is enough that the O’s should be able to give their somewhat shaky bullpen a big enough lead that they don’t blow it. O’s tomorrow and O’s in 2.
The Dishwasher 
Leave a comment