This offseason has the potential to be the most exciting Orioles offseason in many many years.
When it was announced that David Rubenstien was buying the Orioles it felt like a weight was taken off Orioles fan’s shoulders because under John Angelos everyone knew that the O’s were never going to spend enough to get a top tier or even a mid tier free agent and we probably weren’t going to even be able to keep all of our own players when they hit free agency. With a new Billionaire owner it seemed the Orioles were going to become a serious organization.
Even though David Rubenstien was announced as the new owner just before the season started the process wasn’t complete until the middle of the season so I don’t think he was exactly in a position to come in and demand that they sign someone like Blake Snell and even if he had I don’t know that that would have been a good thing.
Mike Elias said that during the trade deadline they worked closely with the new ownership group and that they were very willing to take on salary which I took as a very good sign but this offseason will be David Rubenstien and his ownership group’s first real chance to definitively prove that they are going to be different from the previous owners.
Here are the keys to a successful offseason for the Orioles.
- They need to bring in multiple pitchers in free agency
- They need to sign 1 veteran position player who has significant postseason experience
- The return of Tony Taters
- Make a decision and either clear space for the young guys to play every day or flip them in a trade for pitching
- Bonus points for signing someone to a long term extension
Free Agent Pitchers
When it comes to talking about signing free agents I’ll try to exercise restraint because I generally subscribe to the “it’s not my money” philosophy when it comes to talking about free agents so normally if you asked me should the O’s sign Burnes to a 10 year 400 million dollar contract I’d be like “if that’s what it takes then sure” So today I’ll try to put myself in David Rubenstein and Mike Elias’ shoes and try to manage my expectations.
I think it is fair to hope that the O’s could increase spending to the point where they have a league average payroll (maybe I mean a league median payroll) which based on last year would put them around 170 million in payroll, in the neighborhood of the Diamondbacks, Angels and Padres.
Here is what the Orioles payroll looks like next year
Definitely locked in money
Zach Eflin – 18 Million
Felix Bautista – 1 Million
Yennier Cano – 800K
Colton Cowser – 800K
Gunnar Henderson – 800K
Jordan Westburg – 800K
Jackson Holliday – 800K
Heston Kjerstad – 800K
Coby Mayo – 800K
Chayce McDermott – 800K
Cade Povich – 800K
Albert Suarez – 800K
Team Options
Seranthony Dominguez – 8 Million
Ryan O’Hearn – 8 Million
Danny Coulombe – 4 Million
Cionel Perez – 2.2 Million
Arb Estimations (according to spotrac)
Cedric Mullins – 8.4 Million
Ryan Mountcastle – 6 Million
Gregory Soto – 5.8 Million
Adley Rutschman – 5.1 Million
Ramon Urias – 4.4 Million
Kyle Bradish – 3.2 Million
Dean Kremer – 3.2 Million
Jorge Mateo – 2.9 Million
Trevor Rogers – 2.7 Million
Keegan Akin – 2.1 Million
Tyler Well – 2 Million
Jacob Webb – 1.9 Million
So to add that all up that accounts for 28 players and since we are estimating the arb contracts to put us at a nice round number lets round up to 100 million.
So based on what I think should be a reasonable goal for getting up towards a league median payroll that gives the Orioles about 50-70 Million to hand out in contracts this year
Some of the 28 will be on the injured list and some of them will be in triple A to start next season so I’m not really concerned with roster space. I should also say that there are more guys on the 40 man that are all making around 800K but anyone who I didn’t include on my list are guys that I think are more placeholders that would be cut in a heartbeat for a free agent or a prospect call up.
So now that we know more or less what our budget is, let’s talk about free agents.
Tier 1: Aces
The conversation about free agent pitchers starts with the Orioles own free agent Ace Corbin Burnes.
Corbin Burnes
ERA: 2.92 | xERA: 3.27 | FIP: 3.55 | xFIP: 3.55 | WHIP: 1.10 | K/9: 8.38 | WAR: 3.7 |
Age: 30
Burnes is going into free agency after 5 straight seasons finishing top 5 in Cy Young voting. There is an argument that over those 5 seasons he has been the very best pitcher in all of baseball. That combination of dominance and consistency is incredibly rare and that is why Burnes is lined up to receive one of the biggest pitching contracts in the history of baseball.
According to Spotrac’s projections based on Burnes’ age and performance they estimate that he would receive a 7 year 215 Million dollar deal coming out to around 30 million a year and Bleacher Report projected him at 288 Million over 8 years.
Here are the only pitching contracts even in that neighborhood for total value
Yamamoto – 12 Years, 325 Million, 27 AAV – Signed at 25
Gerrit Cole – 9 Years, 324 Million, 36 AAV – Signed at 29
Stephen Strasberg – 7 Years, 245 Million, 35 AAV – Signed at 31
Jacob Degrom – 5 Years, 185 Million, 37 AAV – Signed at 34
Aaron Nola – 7 Years, 172 Million, 24.5 AAV – Signed at 30
Carlos Rodon – 6 Years, 162 Million, 27 AAV – Signed at 30
Looking at these players and contracts I can do some caveman math to get to about where Spotrac is on Burnes’ projected deal. It feels like Burnes is a tier above Nola and Rodon who signed at the same age so you feel 172 Million is the absolute floor.
The Cole contract is a very interesting benchmark in a Burnes contract discussion. The contract is already 4 years old which feels crazy. Even though some pitchers have gotten longer deals and some pitchers got higher AAV deals nobody has gotten the sweet combo of years, total value and AAV that Gerrit Cole got after the 2019 season.
At the time the deal was obviously quite large but he signed it just a few days after Strasburg signed his deal and because Strasburg was 2 years older than Cole and Cole’s deal was 2 years longer it basically meant that the both the Nationals and Yankees had agreed to pay these star pitchers 35+ million through their age 38 season.
And because they both signed these contracts back to back it seemed like handing out contracts of this size to starting pitchers was going to become a trend similar to how signing star position players to 300 million dollar deals has become normalized. However 4 years later those two deals are still the two top non Yamamoto deals.
So you think to yourself, is this because nobody as good as Cole and Strasburg has hit free agency? And the answer to that is simply no. Last year 2 time Cy Young winner Blake Snell was a free agent and went unsigned through almost the entire offseason before having a ink a last minute 2 year deal (1 year + a player option) for just 62 Million total.
Now Blake Snell is a unique case. In 9 seasons he has only pitched more than 130 innings twice and he won the Cy Young both times. He famously doesn’t get deep into games and he is a notorious slow starter which is why despite being one of the best pitchers in the league over the last several years he has only made 1 all star team.
Snell was also a year older than Burnes going into his free agency.
With Snell there were genuine concerns that if you gave him a massive contract he might never pitch a whole starter’s workload ever again and you’d get stuck holding the bag paying for his 2 Cy Youngs and not getting nearly that level of production from him.
Burnes has been much more consistent over the last 4 years than Snell has ever been. Burnes can be relied upon to pitch over 180 innings a season at a high 2 to low 3 ERA. He is much closer to Gerrit Cole than he is to Blake Snell.
The only concern with Burnes that people bring up is that his strike out and swing and miss numbers have been steadily declining over the past several seasons. However, after watching almost all of Burnes’ starts this year I would not be that concerned about this.
Burnes’ fastball velocity was at an all time high this year as well as the spin on almost all of his pitches. So if he can throw as hard as ever and his pitches spin as well as ever but he’s not striking out as many hitters to me that signals that he is strategically pitching to contact in some situations to try to get deeper into games. It’s either that or the league has seen his famous cutter enough that they aren’t wildly swinging and missing like they were when it debuted, but even if that were the case Burnes was so effective this year he clearly learned to work around the cutter not getting as many swings and misses.
So should the Orioles give Burnes the 7 year 213 Million that he is projected to get? Personally I would rather offer him a deal similar to the extension Zack Wheeler got. Wheeler signed a 3 year 126 Million dollar extension making it so he makes 42 Million a season.
The idea of a shorter deal at a higher annual value appeals to me because as of right now the Orioles aren’t paying any of their young guys hardly anything. So they could hand out a massive AAV contract and they would still have a below league average payroll. The Orioles core guys who we hope will eventually sign big extensions aren’t due to become free agents until at the earliest 2027 so if the O’s could offer Burnes something like a 4 year 160 Million dollar deal then it would be coming off the books right when the Adley and Gunnar extensions should be kicking in.
Having Burnes on a shorter deal even if it is at a higher price will give the O’s greater flexibility when making plans on how to extend their young stars and continue to supplement the roster and extend their competitive window.
It could also appeal to Burnes because he would be getting a good amount of financial security and he would have the opportunity to hit the open market again at 34 and plenty of pitchers are still effective enough at 34 to get another big deal. Scherzer signed a 3 year 130 million dollar deal at age 37. So it’s not like I want Burnes to take a pay cut or take a deal that is disadvantageous to him.
That being said, if the only deal Burnes will take is a longer deal that takes him into his late 30s then I would still be interested in doing that. You would be locking in a top of the rotation ace for the next 2-3 years and then I would expect Burnes to continue to be a decent starter through his mid thirties.
Giving a 200+ million dollar contract to a starting pitcher has the potential to really bite the Orioles but with most of the Orioles position player talent under control for the next several years, if there was time to make a high risk high reward signing it’s now or never.
Max Fried
ERA: 3.25 | xERA: 3.64 | FIP: 3.33 | xFIP: 3.33 | WHIP: 1.16 | K/9: 8.6 | WAR: 3.5 |
Age: 31
Besides Burnes, Max Fried would be my number 1 target to add in the offseason. It would be great to finally have an elite left handed pitcher who could really take advantage of the monstrosity in left field. (it is a little funny we built that wall and then proceeded to never have a left handed pitcher consistently in the rotation while any visiting left handed pitcher looks like prime Clayton Kershaw)
Fried has pitched a full starters workload in 4 of the past 5 seasons and his ERA has been between 2.25 and 3.25 every year, there is no indication that he’s getting lucky either the FIP, WHIP and all the fun expected numbers point to a guy who is truly dominant.
What Fried is elite at is forcing soft contact and inducing ground balls. His numbers are so good when it comes to average exit velocity and ground ball rate I would be surprised if he gave up even 1 homer that would have gotten over Baltimore’s left field wall.
According to Spotrac he is projected to get 6 years 136 million which would put him in the Aaron Nola and Carlos Rodon range of years and AAV.
Despite the projection I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Fried and his agent went into the offseason saying that the Aaron Nola contract is the floor. Those 2 players have pretty similar resumes as far as all star and Cy Young finishes the primary difference being that Nola has been more reliable from an innings perspective but Fried can easily say that what he lacks in volume to Nola he makes up for with more high quality seasons.
As far as should the O’s be on board to sign Fried a 6 year 9 figure deal it really depends on what happens with Burnes. Signing both Burnes and Fried to these pitching mega deals would shoot the O’s up to a league average payroll without even taking into account any other signings they might make this season and since the O’s do have other free agents targets this offseason I don’t see them signing both Burnes and Fried. If the O’s get the sense early that Burnes is going to be out of their range then they should be all in on Fried.
Blake Snell
ERA: 3.12 | xERA: 2.54 | FIP: 2.43 | xFIP: 3.01 | WHIP: 1.05 | K/9: 12.5 | WAR: 2.1 |
Age: 32
Blake Snell is one of the most unique pitchers in all of baseball. He is not just unhittable in the sense that it is hard to record a hit, it’s more like unhittable in the sense it is hard to put the bat on the ball. Watching Blake Snell go against the O’s second half offense had strong atomic bomb vs coughing baby vibes.
Snell walks a tightrope that few if any other pitchers are willing to try and as far as I can tell he is the only one experiencing success pitching like this. He refuses to give batters a pitch to hit, maybe it’s stubbornness, maybe it’s confidence in his ability to strike anyone out but Snell is determined to attack the corners and the outside of the zone.
This strategy results in lots of walks and it drives up Snell’s pitch count making it hard for him to get deep into games.
Lots of walks and not getting deep into games are the kinds of flaws that make it so that a pitcher gets turned into a reliever or is pushed out of the league but Snell is so effective that he is winning Cy Youngs pitching this way.
Last year Snell hit free agency after winning his second Cy Young and found the market quite a bit cooler than he expected forcing him to take his current deal with the Giants. While the second year option would pay Snell quite well, the whole idea behind this deal that would allow him to hit free agency again was to get another shot at signing a longer term big money deal.
So what will Snell demand in free agency this year? Despite the numbers looking good by the end of the season Snell did not exactly clear one of the main concerns that surrounds him which is that he very rarely pitches a full starter’s workload.
Spotrac projects that Snell is worth around 5 years 131 Million which puts him in the same neighborhood as Fried, Nola and Rodon but with the concerns around Snells healthy and ability to continue to do his pitching high wire act will anyone be willing to give him a 5 years deal? Were there long term deals on the table last year that Snell declined because he thought he would get more that he would now be willing to take?
I would feel pretty comfortable giving Snell around 3 years 100 Million but if that’s what’s available to him would he prefer to go back to San Francisco for 1 year 38 million and then hit the market at 33?
The whole situation around Snell is very confusing. I would love to have him on the Orioles at the right price and if for some reason his negotiations go similar to last year I would give him what the Giants gave him last year in a heartbeat.
I would view Snell as a good third option should we get outbid for both Burnes and Fried which is probably more likely than I want to think with the slight possibility that if things break right he could be affordable enough to get in addition to another really good arm.
Tier 2: Very Solid Starters
Nathan Eovaldi
ERA: 3.80 | xERA: 3.86 | FIP: 3.83 | xFIP: 3.47 | WHIP: 1.11 | K/9: 8.8 | WAR: 2.2 |
Age: 35
I feel like a broken record the way I’ve been asking the O’s to sign/trade Nathan Eovaldi at every possible opportunity over the last several seasons.
Maybe I am over indexing on Eovaldi’s playoff record but he just seems like he would be such a good fit on a young Orioles team that needs some help breaking through in the playoffs. He is a 2 time champion and in both of those championship runs he played a major role and pitched important innings.
When you think of a Ken Burns documentary style telling of the history of baseball Eovaldi’s extra innings performance in the 2018 World Series feels like one of the top moments of the last decade.
I was also there in person to watch him dismantle the 2023 Orioles in the ALDS clincher last year so that stands out as well.
Besides my personal admiration for Nathan Eovaldi he has been a consistently good pitcher for the last 5 seasons and he has aged well into his mid thirties so he feels like a good bet to continue to pitch well in his age 35-37 season which is what I imagine he looking to sign through this free agency.
Spotrac has him at 2 years 49 million and I think that seems a bit high. Sonny Gray signed for 3 years 75 at age 34 years old coming off a second place in the Cy Young finish. I would rather pay Eovaldi closer to 20 Million a year but there is going to be a big market for Nasty Nate so if 2 years 50 million is what it takes I think that’s fine.
Sean Manaea
ERA: 3.47 | xERA: 3.75 | FIP: 3.83 | xFIP: 4.04 | WHIP: 1.32 | K/9: 9.1 | WAR: 3.0 |
Age : 33
What a bounceback for Sean Manaea who, after back to back disappointing seasons with the Padres and the Giants, looked like he might be destined for journeyman swingman duty for the rest of his career and now he is one of the better arms available in free agency.
Manaea may not be on the level of Burnes, Fried and Snell but I would put him at the very top of the next tier of available free agent starting pitchers.
The key for Manaea was dropping his arm angle and in his own words copying Chris Sales delivery. (it is very funny to think of a major league pitcher watching Chris Sale pitch one day and saying “why don’t I do it like that”)
Similar to with Fried and Snell as a lefty, Manaea would benefit greatly from Camden Yards’ dimensions. Unlike Fried and Snell, Manaea shouldn’t cost 30 million per year to sign.
It will be interesting to see what Manaea does get. Spotrac has him projected at 2 years 29 million but I would say based on how he finished the season and how he raised his profile in the postseason it is possible he could be looking at 2 years 40 million or 3 years 55 million or something like that.
I’ve mentioned in the last few blurbs the idea of getting Burnes and another top guy and as cool as that would be that is mostly a pipedream but the idea of getting one the top arms and then also Manaea feels much more grounded in reality.
If Manaea were to be the top free agent acquisition that would be a bit disappointing but far from the worst case scenario as you’d be looking at a rotation of Eflin, Rodriguez, Manaea and Kremer which is solid although unspectacular.
Shane Bieber
ERA: 3.80 | xERA: 4.83 | FIP: 3.87 | xFIP: 3.96 | WHIP: 1.23 | K/9: 7.5 | WAR: 1.8 | (2023)
Age: 29
Last year Beiber got off to a red hot start to the season before suffering a season ending injury after his second start. Based on when he got hurt and the surgery he had it is estimated that he should be back in early 2025 and at just 29 his elbow should be expected to bounce back fairly quickly.
Bieber has been one of my favorite pitchers for many years so I would love for him to be an Oriole. He has the mickey mouse 2020 Cy Young but in addition to that he has multiple top 7 Cy Young finishes. At his best he is a strikeout machine with 5 pitches that he uses interchangeably to get quick outs and get deep in games.
However Bieber is not without his flaws. In the last 4 season Bieber has pitched a full starts load of innings just once. Also over the last few seasons his K/9 numbers have steadily declined. In 2020 he was at 14.2 and in 2021 he was at 12.5 while in 2023 that number was all the way down at 7.5. The fastball velo had steadily declined over the years as well.
However last year before the injury he looked like the old Shane Bieber and even if that was a sample size of two games which in baseball is laughably small it felt like maybe he had figured something out. I also think that the fact that his elbow went down SO early in the season could mean that that elbow had been bothering him for awhile and could be partially responsible for the dip in his numbers over the last few seasons.
What Bieber will get in free agency is a total mystery. Spotrac has him projected to be worth 6 years 147 Million but with the injury and the fact that it has been since 2022 that he last had a good season I seriously doubt that he would command anything even near that.
I think that he will most likely be looking to sign a 2-3 deal that will get him back on the market again in his early thirties to try to really cash in on some strong post injury seasons.
I think it would be a solid deal to get Bieber on a deal similar to Nathan Eovaldi who also pitched well but struggled with injury so we could be talking about 2 years 34 Million or 3 years 51 million something like that. I would be wary if the years or the AAV got significantly higher than that.
Yusei Kikuchi
ERA: 4.05 | xERA: 3.75 | FIP: 3.46 | xFIP: 3.20 | WHIP: 1.20 | K/9: 10.6 | WAR: 1.4 |
Age: 33
Now here is a guy who would love to pitch with Walltimore behind him. Yusei Kikuchi is a big strike out and swing and miss guy who has a problem giving up home runs. As a lefty, having a home park that eliminates righty pull homers under 400 feet would go a long way towards improving his effectiveness.
It is also worth mentioning that post trade deadline with the Astros Kikuchi looked like a different guy. So It is possible he showed up and the Astros being a forward thinking and analytical organization unlocked something in him that will make him that pitcher going forward. You also can’t rule out that those cheaters have a special kind of sticky stuff that the umps haven’t figured out how to detect so keep that in mind when you are looking at his Houston numbers.
I think Kikuchi would be a good addition to the middle/ back end of the O’s rotation but as far as compensation out of anyone we’ve talked about so far he is the one I would least want to sign on a deal any longer than one year. I’d say offer him 1 year 10-14 million if someone tops that or if he wants more years just let him go.
Tier 3: Interesting projects
Walker Buehler
ERA: 5.38 | xERA: 4.68 | FIP: 5.54 | xFIP: 4.49 | WHIP: 1.44 | K/9: 8 | WAR: -1.3 |
Age: 30
So you look at those numbers and you’d be tempted to ask: Was this the worst pitcher in the entire league last year?
And the answer to that is wait until the next guy in this tier.
But just a few years ago before his injury Walker Buehler was one of the best young pitchers in all of baseball and even though in his first season back he was terrible you have to feel like the good version of Buehler is in there. He’s just barely 30, his fastball velocity is about the same and spin on his pitches is as good as it ever was so it seems like he should be able to get back to his previous form if he gets a full healthy offseason.
Buehler will be looking to sign a prove it contract with someone and I think that in a season where they will hopefully get Kyle Bradish back at some point they have the breathing room to give Buehler a shot to get his mojo back.
Because of how bad he was this year and how long it’s been since he was good the O’s shouldn’t have to outbid too many other teams to get Buehler on board, I think they could sign him to a 1 year 10-12 Million dollar deal or maybe even less. It should be a low risk high reward move.
Jordan Montgomery
ERA: 6.23 | xERA: 5.10 | FIP: 4.48 | xFIP: 4.67 | WHIP: 1.65 | K/9: 6.4 | WAR: -1.4 |
Age: 32
Jordan Montgomery’s 2024 season was something of a nightmare scenario for an MLB pitcher. You put in all those years to get through arbitration and on your contract year you have a career season and you are a stud on the biggest stage in the World Series and and because of your mega agent’s hubris you get stuck signing a 1 year 25 million dollar deal late in the offseason.
It’s fine though because you’ll just deal again and hit free agency and get your deal a little later than expected right? Wrong you have the worst season of your career by far to the point where you get sent to the bullpen.
So now Montgomery will be out to redeem himself and to do so he’ll need a short term prove it deal. He does have a player option for 22 million this year and it’s possible that nobody would want to give him a 1 year deal that big BUT the owner recently came out and said that signing Montgomery was “a horrible mistake” so that makes it seem like there’s been some nasty vibes between Montgomery and the Snakes to the point where it feels possible that Montgomery would take less for the opportunity to rehab his reputation elsewhere.
And where better for a lefty to bounce back than the stadium with the deepest left field in all of baseball?
There are 2 routes the O’s could go about signing Montgomery.
Option 1: Just offer him a 1 year deal and understand that if he proves himself you probably won’t be the ones to sign him long term but you know that if he stinks it’s no skin off your back.
Option 2: If you think he is the guy he was in 2022 and 2023 and last year was a fluke then option 2 would be to actually offer him a decent 3-4 year deal and roll the dice that you get the best version of him at a discount for the next few years. The downside is that if he continues to be the worst pitcher in baseball then that would quickly become the worst deal in the league and you’d get people posting pictures of Chris Davis on the mound whenever the lineup card gets posted with Montgomery’s name on it.
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer
I’m not going to include stats because you know who these guys are. The thing about Scherzer and Verlander is that either of them could retire any day now and it would feel like an appropriate time to hang em up. They’re both clearly not what they were even a couple of seasons ago and they’ve both battled injuries the last few seasons.
If I were Mike Elias I wouldn’t be in hot pursuit of either of these guys but if as the offseason wore on if one of their agents reached and said “Hey my guy thinks he’s got a couple more years and he’d love to play for a team that is competing for a title so we’re not looking for a massive deal” then I would consider signing one of these guys.
Both of these guys have multiple World Series championships and lots of experience pitching in the playoffs and they both have a standard and an expectation for their teams that I think could be helpful to a young Orioles team. That being said they weren’t exactly shining examples of leadership when they were both on the Mets so maybe it would be best to steer clear.
Tier 4: Rotation Depth
I don’t want to spend a ton of time focused on these guys but these are all guys that would be solid end of the rotation starters that could most likely get brought in on 1-2 year deals at around 10-15 million.
None of these guys are in my dream rotation but if we had had them instead of 16 Cade Povich starts we might have won the division. You just can’t have enough starting pitching in this league and these guys are solid starters who are also comfortable coming out of the bullpen if the situation calls for it.
Honestly these guys are probably better and more realistic signings than anyone in the interesting projects tier but they’re just not quite as fun.
Luis Severino
ERA: 3.91 | xERA: 3.88 | FIP: 4.21 | xFIP: 4.12 | WHIP: 1.24 | K/9: 7.96 | WAR: 1.7 |
Age: 30
Nick Martinez
ERA: 3.10 | xERA: 3.15 | FIP: 3.21 | xFIP: 3.89 | WHIP: 1.03 | K/9: 7.33 | WAR: 4.0 |
Age: 34
Andrew Heaney
ERA: 4.28 | xERA: 4.49 | FIP: 4.04 | xFIP: 4.18 | WHIP: 1.25 | K/9: 8.94 | WAR: .8 |
Age: 33
Might be worth signing the Hean-dog so that we don’t have to face him geez.
Continued in part 3
The Dishwasher 
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