At the end of the season there was a report that one of the incoming free agents said that the Orioles clubhouse was James McCann’s clubhouse. That does sound like something of an indictment on some of our younger stars but James McCann is a good teammate, he’s tough as nails and he has 10 years of MLB service time so it makes sense that in a clubhouse full of guys on their rookie contracts they would look at McCann as a leader.
However, even though McCann is a good vet to have in the clubhouse, just reading the words “It’s McCann’s clubhouse” makes you think the O’s could use more veteran leadership. Specifically they could use leadership from a veteran who has real postseason experience.
This offseason there will be some big names with lots of postseason experience on the market looking for big contracts and those are not the guys the O’s should be looking to sign. They should be looking for someone who is in many ways similar to McCann where they can still play but don’t need to play everyday.
So as I look through the 2025 free agents I’ll be bypassing the Bregmans and the Ozunas and looking for a specific kind of veteran free agent.
Hitting Free Agents
J.D. Martinez
AVG: .235 | OBP: .320 | OPS: .724 | HR: 16 | WRC+: 108
Age: 37 – Position: DH – Relevant Playoff Experience: 2018 WS, 2021 ALCS, 2024 NLCS
Martinez fits the vision for the kind of veteran bats the O’s should be adding almost to a T. His postseason experience is recent and he was a real contributor on those teams so he has the resume. Besides the experience, his right handed bat would be a welcome addition to the lineup. As a bonus even though he is right handed most of his power is to the opposite field so he wouldn’t be victimized by Walltimore.
The issue with Martinez is that as a DH he doesn’t provide any positional versatility, the O’s have a lot of guys they like to play at DH and I don’t think Martinez is ready to just be a short end of the platoon bench bat. So if the O’s bring in JD the available DH at bats goes down by about 400 which would put the squeeze on O’Hearn, Mountcastle, Santander, Kjerstad, Mayo and Rutschman.
I’ll be interested to see what the market for Martinez will be and what he believes his role on a team should be. His numbers are declining steadily as you would expect as he enters his late thirties but he’s just a season removed from making the All Star team. If the conditions are right I would love for him to be the Orioles veteran addition to the roster but I wouldn’t blame Martinez if he opted to sign somewhere that would let him play everyday
Kiké Hernandez
AVG: .229 | OBP: .281 | OPS: .654 | HR: 12 | WRC+: 83
Age: 33 | Position: Util | Relevant Playoff Experience: 2016 NLCS, 2017 NLCS, 2018 WS, 2020 WS, 2021 ALCS, 2024 WS
Looking at his stats I can already see myself regretting asking for the O’s to sign Hernandez but there is hardly anyone in the league with more playoff experience than Kiké. After 2 years of poor playoff showings from these young Orioles the energy and confidence that Hernandez plays with could have a calming effect to get the young guys to stop gripping the bat tightly.
Hernandez’s ability to play pretty much any position means that adding him won’t cause a logjam at any of the O’s crowded position groups.
The only downside is that Hernandez appears to enjoy playing in Los Angeles to point where he might go back there on the minimum rather than sign with the O’s for a couple million dollars and I think it would be annoying to have to a pay a “make me leave LA tax” for a player of Hernandez’s caliber. Even if I could wrap my mind around that our rather analytical front office might balk at having to overpay for a utility guy.
Anthony Rizzo
AVG: .228 | OBP: .301 | OPS: .335 | HR: 8 | WRC+: 84
Age: 35 | Position: 1B | Relevant Postseason Experience: 2015 NLCS, 2016 WS, 2017 NLCS, 2022 ALCS, 2024 WS
A little controversial here as adding Rizzo would almost certainly correspond with moving on from either Mountcastle or O’Hearn and when you look at his numbers he has been significantly worse than both of those guys since 2022. But before Rizzo suffered that concussion in 2023 he was still putting up the same consistent numbers he always had and this year he had a few more injuries that stopped him from getting in a real rhythm.
Now injuries are part of being an athlete fading out of your prime but it is possible the O’s could trade someone like O’Hearn for an arm to bring in Rizzo in a leadership role while also rolling the dice on getting a bounceback year at the plate.
I’m not wishing for it but if the O’s are looking to bring in veteran leadership with postseason experience then the list is short. Teams aren’t just letting these guys hit free agency left and right.
Justin Turner
AVG: .259 | OBP: .354 | OPS: .737 | HR: 11 | WRC+: 117
Age: 40 | Position: 1B/DH | Relevant Postseason Experience: 2016 NLCS, 2017 WS, 2018 WS, 2020 WS, 2021 NLCS
I wasn’t going to include Turner here because I thought at 40 he was a good candidate to retire but I looked at his numbers and if Rizzo and Martinez are under consideration then Turner deserves to be as well.
Similar to with Rizzo, bringing in Turner would likely mean moving on from Mountcastle or O’Hearn but I think you could feel a little better about the chances of getting a quality season at the plate.
I do have some dumb guy analysis so I’m going to preface this next bit by saying that this is not how smart people think but it gives me just a smidge of concern that he was signed/traded for by the Red Sox, Jays and Mariners to be a veteran leader and they all had pretty spectacular collapses with him on board.
That being said I want a guy like Turner on the roster to help the young guys in the postseason and those teams didn’t even make the postseason so anyway dumb guy thread over.
Travis d’Arnaud
AVG: .238 | OBP: .302 | OPS: .739 | HR: 15 | WRC+: 103
Age: 36 | Position: C | Relevant Postseason Experience: 2015 WS, 2020 NLCS, 2021 WS
I’m going to be referring to him as Travis because typing out lowercase d’ is a little annoying. As annoying as trying to type out his name is Travis might be the best possible pickup for this Orioles team.
He could slide in very easily to the McCann role where he and Adley split the catching duties and occasionally DHing, with next season being his age 36 season I’m sure he wouldn’t mind having a few days off as well so he wouldn’t log jam the Orioles already crowded DH group.
The issue with Travis is that he’s frequently injured. So if you roll with d’Arnaud as your big position player acquisition you probably have to be prepared to have a third catcher who will play a decent amount, but with Samuel Basallo already knocking on the door in triple A that might not be an issue.
Moving onto someone much more important than any of these guys
Anthony Santander
AVG: .235 | OBP: .308 | OPS: .814 | HR: 44 | WRC+: 129
Anthony Santander is coming off the best year of his career. In fact every year since 2021 has been the best year of Anthony Santander’s career. Over the past 3 seasons he has done nothing but work hard, improve and be more productive than the last and now this offseason he will be rewarded for it.
Now as I mentioned before my default setting is to just say “it’s not my money just give him whatever he asks for.” but that is certainly not how the front office is going to handle negotiations so I am going to try to answer the question of what should the Orioles be willing to pay Anthony Santander.
The estimations for what Santander will get this offseason are all over the place Spotract has him at 5 years 88 Million which seems low and recently Jim Bowden made some headlines saying projecting him at 7 years 150 million which seems high.
The case for paying him is that he has averaged 35 homers and 94 RBI over the last 3 seasons which makes him one of the very most productive hitters in all of baseball. That’s more homers and RBI than guys like Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Juan Soto. He’s 30 years old which for some positions is old but for a DH he could be just entering his power prime and he is a switch hitter which only increases his value.
From an intangibles perspective he is clearly a leader on the team and his work ethic and approach is something that several young Orioles have mentioned as something they have tried to model themselves after. He brings energy, passion and enthusiasm that is contagious, how many times have we seen Tony hit a home run in a big spot and immediately turn to the dugout and get the boys pumped up.
Now based on everything I just said this sounds like a guy who deserves to be one of the highest paid players in the league and maybe he does but there are a few things that work against Santander in his quest for a massive free agent deal.
While he was third in homers this season he finished the season with an OPS of .814 and a wRC+ of 129 which are very good marks but are not quite elite. If Santander was a 3rd baseman or a center fielder with those numbers then he truly would be in line for a massive payday but when it comes to DH corner outfielders teams are more hesitant to throw big money at that kind of player.
When you look at the corner outfielders who have gotten paid big dollars they are usually either elite defenders or have had MVP level offensive seasons.
Mookie Betts (365) – Elite Defender
Fernando Tatis (340) – Elite Defender (also got paid as a shortstop)
Bryce Harper (330) – 2 time MVP
Giancarlo Stanton (325) – MVP
Christian Yelich (188) – MVP
Kris Bryant (182) – MVP (also the Rockies are stupid)
Yordan Alvarez (115) – no MVP but a career .973 OPS
Bryan Reynolds (106) – Comparable
Nick Castellanos (100) – Comparable
Ronald Acuna (100) – MVP
Masataka Yoshida (90) – GM fired
Jackson Chourio (82) – Rookie Scam Contract
Kyle Schwarber (79) – Comparable
So just looking at his peers and what they’ve earned I think there is a pretty clear Santander zone around Bryan Reynolds and Nick Castellanos.
Reynolds deal is an 8 year deal which seems unlikely for Santander but the Castellanos deal seems very reasonable for Santander at 5 years 100 Million. Santander gets the 9 figure contract that every ball player dreams of at an AAV that doesn’t bloat the O’s current payroll and the deal ends right around when Santader should be exiting his prime it would be a perfect win win.
Now Castellanos signed his deal 3 years ago so if Santander was to ask for the Castellanos deal plus some because that’s just kind of how it works then I think that shouldn’t be a problem.
There’s too many options for the front office as far as player/club options, deferred money and other tricks for me to list every version of the deal we could do but the point is that the O’s should be willing to spend big money to retain their star slugger.
I do think there is a point where you could be better off saying goodbye and that 7 years 150 million dollar deal Jom Bowden projected for him would be a bit too far for me. If I was Mike Elias and I got stuck in a bidding war with someone like the Mets or the Giants or whoever and we got word that they had offered Santander 150 Million dollars before I sent a counter I would want to strap David Rubenstien to a polygraph and ask him if in 3 years when I am working on extending Henderson and Westburg and whoever else will it be a problem if we are paying 37 year old Anthony Santander 21 million in 2032.
We saw with the Padres, who have built a great team by being big spenders, if they had been more responsible when it came to paying Yu Darvish and Xander Bogaerts they probably could have kept Juan Soto who will easily be more valuable than both them combined. So as fun as it is to spend money you do have to be aware of what it could cost you down the line.
The hope is with Rubenstein we don’t have to worry about that quite as much as we did before but we also saw with the Mets when Steve Cohen took over and started spending I’m sure it felt like they were going to have unlimited money forever and now they are likely going to let their franchise player Pete Alonso walk.
I hope that we are able to keep Santander and if we don’t I hope it’s because he got offered an insane deal.
Some guys that could make sense but actually don’t
Teoscar Hernandez
I didn’t include popular free agent target Teoscar Hernandez and that is because I think he will get as much or more than Santander and I’d rather have Santander. I just don’t see the O’s balking at paying Santander and then paying Teoscar Hernandez considering they are very similar players except Santander is younger and can switch hit.
Joc Pederson
Pederson would be a great addition if the Orioles didn’t already have an entirely left handed outfield and 4 lefty DHs. He’s just too redundant on the O’s to be worth what it would cost to sign him.
Michael Conforto
Again with the all left handed outfield thing.
Christian Walker
There should be a bidding war for Walker’s services and as good as he’d be for the O’s I think it would be best if we stayed out of that one. Signing Walker to a big deal and then watching him have his worst power season ever as he peppers the left field warning track with flyouts is an avoidable mistake.
Clear Space or Flip?
Free agency is not the only means to bring in quality players. Last year the Orioles made their biggest move via trade and it is possible that is the case once again this year.
Just a few days ago Mike Elias gave the following quote to MLB Network:
“We don’t have anywhere near the depth we had this time last year. … We’re going to have be judicious about that and we’re a little more limited in what we can trade from our major league depth, but we still have a very strong farm system and enough to really explore any trade opportunities that are out there,”
What he says is true, last year the O’s had a surplus of position players both in the outfield and the infield on the major league roster and they traded Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby, Austin Hays and Kyle Stowers to bolster their rotation and bullpen and as a result we do have less depth but there is still a position group where we have more players than we can play and that is 1B/DH.
There is no reason to go into the 2025 season with all 4 of Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Kjerstad and Mayo on the roster, especially with another possible first baseman in Samuel Basallo on the way. At least 1 if not 2 of those guys should be traded before the season starts to bring in more pitching depth. If not, you’re asking for another Austin Hays and Colton Cowser situation where either a prospect doesn’t get to play enough to establish himself or a veteran gets pushed out of his starting spot and either way someone is frustrated and that frustration can divide a clubhouse.
Deciding who to move on from will be painful no matter who the odd man out ends up being.
Mountcastle is now one of the longest tenured Orioles on the team and his presence and personality has been a constant for the O’s in the 2020s.
O’Hearn is one the Orioles great player development success stories and this year it seemed like he emerged as a leader on the team, after every tough loss it felt like O’Hearn was the one answering the tough questions by his locker.
Heston Kjerstad was the number 2 overall pick in 2020 and the O’s have stuck with him through his health conditions and last year just when it seemed like he was tapping into the potential that the Orioles dreamed on, he got drilled in the head. He has the kind of hitting tools where you can easily see him hitting 35-40 homers in a season but he will be 26 next year so there is no more time to wait and see.
Coby Mayo is currently the O’s number 1 prospect and the number 8 prospect in all of baseball and you just don’t usually see such highly regarded prospects make it to the majors and then get traded before they get a real chance to prove themselves.
The Mountcastle and O’Hearn 1B/DH platoon has served the Orioles very well the past 2 seasons and this year both of them were finalists to make the all star team. They’ve both been batting in the heart of the order for one of the best offenses in baseball for 2 seasons now so clearly what they have works and it feels bankable.
With Kjerstad and Mayo there is certainly an optimism that they could be even better but there is no way of guaranteeing that. If you traded Mountcastle and O’Hearn and then Kjerstad got hurt and Mayo continued hitting .098 then you would feel like you had lost good in the pursuit of great.
Conversely if you traded Mayo or Kjerstad and then they go on to OPS .950 for their new team then you’d feel like you blew the opportunity to take the team to the next level out of fear.
After years of anxiously watching prospects get drafted, make it through the minors and come up to replace mediocre players, Orioles fans have gotten very used to the answer being play the young guy but this time it may not be that simple. The O’s may lose Santander this offseason and if they lose an O’Hearn or a Mountcastle in addition to Santander that is 2 bats out of the heart the lineup gone and replaced by question marks.
It seems to me like the odd man out will be Ryan Mountcastle. Kjerstad can still play the outfield but it does seem like the only option for Coby Mayo will be first base with Jordan Westburg locking down 3rd and Jackson Holliday lined up to get a long runway at second.
Despite the fact that I have always thought that Mountcastle had the ability to be among the best first baseman in the league it appears his ceiling is an OPS+ in the mid 110s and good defense. Through no fault of his own the wall in left field has made it so he just isn’t the same kind of power threat he was before and he doesn’t get on base enough to be a high batting average lower power guy at first base.
As you look around the league there are a surprising amount of good teams not getting much of anything from their first base position. Mountcastle still metrics out very well in a number of advanced “expected stats” so I would like to imagine that a team like the Mariners, who had to DFA Ty France last season, might look at Mountcastle and see a guy who could help pull that offense out of the mud, or if you are the Cincinnati Reds, who were so bad at first base that you had to sign Ty France after the Mariners DFA’d him, you could view Mountcastle as an instant upgrade to your lineup.
The hope is that there is at least 1 team out there that holds Mountcastle in sufficiently high esteem that they’d be willing to part with a starting pitcher in exchange for his services at first base and that the rest of the Orioles roster is good enough to allow Mayo to get the same kind of runway that Adley and Gunnar got when they were establishing themselves on the team.
Now if I were making the case for Mountcastle I would argue that the Orioles should be in win now mode and every team in the AL East thinks they are going to win the division next year so there isn’t time to give both Holliday and Mayo half the season to figure themselves out and also with Mayo being such a highly regarded prospect he should bring back a better haul than Mountcastle with just 2 years left before free agency.
However the O’s have shown that while they are willing to trade fringe top 100 prospects they aren’t interested in moving on from the top guys so out of everyone potentially on the trading block I think Mayo is the safest. The O’s would rather make him play an entire additional season in triple A than trade him this offseason.
I don’t think it has to happen but I would say out of all the young guys on the team, Kjerstad is the most likely to get traded. Over the past 2 seasons O’Hearn has given the Orioles pretty much exactly what they would hope to get from an actualized Heston Kjerstad and he’s done it so well that there has been pretty much no talk of moving on from him.
O’Hearn is in the last year of his deal before free agency and will turn 32 next season while Heston Kjerstad will be 26 and has barely played in 50 MLB games. With Kjerstad’s age and potential it feels like 2025 has to be the year that he gets an opportunity to stake out everyday playing time. He has been productive in both of his short stints in the majors but even if Kjerstad mostly plays the outfield it is hard to see that happening without directly impacting Ryan O’Hearn’s playing time.
Kjerstad is close enough to being a prospect and has been good enough in his opportunities that he should be valuable on the trade market and the Orioles have another offense first left handed slugger who’s position in the majors is something of mystery in Samuel Basallo coming up later this season.
Here are some different team building scenarios
The most aggressive: Trade Mountcastle and Kjerstad for pitching, sign Santander, O’Hearn and Mayo split 1B/DH and Basallo comes up just after the trade deadline to get a taste of playing time splitting time with Adley and O’Hearn and then next season Basallo takes over the left handed 1B/DH/RF role that O’Hearn has held down for the past few seasons.
This is my personal recommendation
Make room for Mayo and Kjerstad to the outfield: Trade Mountcastle, let Santander walk, give Kjerstad a chance to take over right field full time, let O’Hearn and Mayo split first base and bring up Basallo when rosters expand.
I think this is the most likely expect I’d say it’s 50/50 on signing Santander and making Kjerstad play a lot more DH.
Play it safe: Trade nobody, let Santander walk, have Kjerstad take over right field, keep O’Hearn and Mountcastle at 1B/DH and have Mayo start the year in triple A to “work on some things” Basallo only comes up if there are cluster injuries.
This would be disappointing but not shocking. Mayo is young enough and struggled enough you could justify keeping him down and if the O’s can’t get anything interesting for Mountcastle they’ll just roll with him at first and delay having to make a move until they have to.
Full prospect takeover: Trade O’Hearn and Mountcastle, Kjerstad and Mayo split 1B/DH like O’Hearn and Mounty have done the last few years, Basallo comes up mid season and mostly splits time with Adley and plays some DH.
This scenario is fun but feels pretty unlikely. If they moved on from Mountcastle and O’Hearn they would be putting a lot of faith in 2 unproven players with no real saftey net should things not work out.
Similar to with free agency there are more potential options than I can list out, for example I said that the Orioles wouldn’t consider trading Coby Mayo but could the difference in trade value between Mountcastle and Mayo end up being the determining factor? What if Mayo is the only guy the White Sox will trade Garrett Crochet for? The possibilities are just short of limitless.
The Dishwasher 
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