The Orioles entered this offseason knowing that their number 1 need was to supplement the rotation and for the first time in many many years the Orioles have been floated as contenders to sign the top free agent pitchers on the market. Both Burnes and Fried have been mentioned as possible targets for the O’s and when Blake Snell signed with the Dodgers the Orioles were mentioned as one of the teams that had been in talks to sign him.
Being in talks to sign good pitchers is not a win on it’s own and I’m not trying to hang the “in the conversation to sign an ace” banner but seeing as the Orioles haven’t signed a free agent to a multi year deal during the entirety of Mike Elais’ tenure as the GM just being in the conversation feels like a step in the right direction and a good sign for what the new ownership group is going to be about.
I’ll tell you what’s not a good sign though and that is the price that teams are paying for these incredibly mid free agent pitchers so far this offseason. As of right now 5 starting pitchers have signed multi year deals and most of them have been for more than I or really anyone would have expected. It would appear that since last season the price for pitching has gone up considerably.
Here is a chart of the relevant pitching signings from last offseason with some contract details and their numbers from their contract seasons. I did not include guys that signed from other leagues like Imanaga or Yamamoto and I also did not include guys who’s signings were impacted by injury like Brandon Woodruff.
And here are this year’s signings so far
These simple charts can’t paint the full picture, for example the Phillies certainly didn’t pay Aaron Nola 172 million because they were blown away by his 96 ERA+ in 2023, they signed him because he had a long track record of high level performance and durability. However in general there is a correlation between ERA+, innings and how much a guy gets paid.
Which is why the dollar amounts that this year’s crop of free agents are being paid compared to last year’s free agent pitchers has been so surprising.
In 2023 Sonny Gray finished 2nd in the Cy Young, he had a sub 2.79 ERA and he led the league in FIP in 184 innings racking up 5.4 WAR and as his reward he got a 3 year 75 Million Dollar deal from the Cardinals. In 2024 Luis Severino was about as league average as it gets with a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings totalling 1.6 WAR and in return the A’s gave him a 3 year 67 Million dollar contract.
If you are doing the math at home you know that means that Gray is making only about 2.6 Million more per year then Severino despite the fact that he had a much more impressive contract year and a more proven track record.
Yusei Kikuchi is getting paid more per year than Eduardo Rodriguez despite the fact that in 5 of his 6 seasons his ERA has been over 4 and in 3 of his 6 seasons his ERA has been over 5 and the underlying numbers don’t suggest that he has been particularly unlucky. E-Rod had a 3.30 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 152.2 innings in his contract year and he was 4 years younger than Kikuchi was when he hit free agency and he got less per year than Kikuchi.
Frankie Montas’ contract is a little confusing because it does say 2 years 34 Million both times but the 2023 contract was a fake 2 year contract that was really a 1 year 16 million dollar contract this time around he got a real 2 year 34 Million dollar contract despite the fact that he was bad on his last deal. He got a 1 year prove it deal then didn’t prove it and then got a pay raise.
I know that with Kikuchi and Montas there were good or at least interesting stats when they got traded at the deadline. For Montas the strikeouts went through the roof in Milwaukee and Kikuchi pitched like a top end starter for 10 starts in Houston. All these guys that have signed so far have good “stuff”, the kind of stuff a front office can dream on and convince themselves that they’ll be worth all the money they are paying them but the point of signing guys that have good stuff but haven’t been able to put it all together is that they are supposed to be cheap.
When it comes to free agents you usually have to pay them more than what they are objectively worth because you are bidding against other teams but these deals have the potential age badly.
So back to what this means for the Orioles.
With Blake Snell off the market there are two tier 1 pitchers left on the market, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The O’s have been tied to both but so have the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets and Dodgers. Basically whichever teams lose the Juan Soto sweepstakes are expected to take the cash they’ve put aside for Soto and throw a chunk of it at Burnes and Fried.
The Orioles should be rooting for the Mets to sign Soto not just to keep him out of the division but also because if Steve Cohen loses out on Soto and then looks at his team’s rotation and sees that his 2 best pitchers are Kodai Senga and Frankie Montas he might sign both Burnes and Fried.
Blake Snell signing first set a very high floor for what Burnes and Fried are going to be asking for. Of the 3 “Ace” pitchers available, Snell was the oldest and the least reliable from a health/innings perspective and Snell securing 5 years 182 Million it will be easy for the remaining 2 free agents to declare that their negotiations start at 6 years 200 million and it’s only going up from there. I would be shocked if either Burnes or Fried sign for less than 200 million with all the money that will be floating around after Soto signs, Burnes specifically could get into the high 200 millions.
With the Orioles new ownership they are something of a wildcard when it comes to free agent spending but with so many young player soon to be expecting paydays if the number for Burnes starts approaching 250 million then it would be wise to look at supplementing the rotation through a trade rather than tie up too much money in one pitcher.
I hate to hear myself say that but when you start talking about spending this much money a decision that seems like a fun win now move can cost you down the line. If the Padres weren’t having to budget for paying Yu Darvish and Xander Bogaerts into their 40s they probably could have been players in this years free agency but instead they’re going to be spectators while their division rival loads up again.
If I was in Mike Elias’ shoes and David Rubenstien was telling me it was ok to sign Corbin Burnes for 7 years 250 million I’d want to have a conversation where I say something like “Hey Dave, glad you’re excited to get going but I just want to make sure if we do this it’s not going to make it so we have to trade Gunnar in his last season or arbitration.”
Looking at the next tier of starters that I liked for the Orioles, the Severino, Kikuchi and Montas deals are going to impact those more than the Blake Snell deal.
Sean Manaea was in the same rotation as Severino, pitched just as many innings and was much more effective to the point where he received down ballot Cy Young votes. If what Severino did was worth 22.3 million AAV then it feels like Manaea is going to demand at least 3 years 80 million.
I had also liked Shane Bieber for the Orioles but he re-signed with Cleveland while I was writing this for much less than what I thought he would get but there was a report that went out that he took less to stay in Cleveland which is the kind of sentence that makes you think stuff like “how do the Orioles get access to the kind of brainwashing technology they have available in Cleveland?”
Nate Eovaldi is a few years older than all the guys that have signed so far which changes the math when it comes to giving out multi year deals. Even if GMs aren’t concerned about his age Eovaldi has always struggled to pitch a full starters workload, in his 13 year career Eovaldi has pitched more than 162 innings just 3 times. Age and health could serve to keep Eovaldi’s number in a more reasonable range.
With Burnes and Fried possibly being pushed out of the Orioles price range it could be in the Orioles best interest to make an effort to get one of Manaea or Eovaldi on a supercharged version of the Severino contract and then get someone like a Michael Lorenzen or Cal Quantrill on a 1 year prove it deal to give them enough innings to get through the season until Kyle Bradish gets back.
Best case scenario for the O’s would be signing one of Burnes and Fried but realistic version of the starting rotation at the beginning of the season could look like this:
Zach Eflin
Grayson Rodriguez
Sean Manaea/Nathan Eovaldi
Dean Kremer
Cal Quantrill/Michael Lorenzen
With Albert Suarez, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott and Trevor Rogers as depth. Once Bradish gets back that would be a rotation with enough depth to get through the regular season and with enough legit arms you feel comfortable putting on the mound in a playoff series.
The Dishwasher 
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