If the season started today the Orioles rotation would look like this:
- Grayson Rodriguez
- Zach Eflin
- Dean Kremer
- Tomoyuki Sugano
- Cade Povich
With Albert Suarez, Chayce McDermott and Trevor Rogers as depth options and Kyle Bradish hopefully returning towards the end of the season. Now a rotation that is just an injury away from number 2 starter Dean Kremer is flatly not good enough but if there was a number 1 starter added to the top of the rotation like Corbin Burnes then the O’s would have a rotation that had both depth and top end talent and be set up nicely to compete for the AL East crown.
Burnes is the last ace available on the market after Blake Snell signed with the Dodgers and Max Fried signed with the Yankees. The Giants and the Blue Jays are the two favorites to land Burnes but Jeff Passan’s latest report still mentioned the Orioles as being in the mix.
Reading between the lines I think San Francisco is where Burnes wants to go, the Blue Jays are willing to pay him the most and the Orioles offer is competitive enough that Scott Boras hasn’t told them to get lost.
Passan’s report mentioned that Burnes likely wouldn’t decide until after Christmas which was nice of them to say because I had been refreshing twitter every 30 minutes since the Soto signing started expecting some Burnes news.
I am holding out hope that signing Burnes could be the new ownership’s big “we’re here” signing while also being realistic that they might just get outbid by a more desperate team like the Red Sox were in the Max Fried sweepstakes when the Yankees, in the aftermath of losing Juan Soto, offered Max Fried an 8 year 218 million dollar contract.
When that happened to the Red Sox they pivoted and made an aggressive trade for a young pitcher with multiple years of control in Garrett Crochet and if the Orioles get outbid by for Corbin Burnes they should do the same.
A quick look back at the moves the Orioles have made since “liftoff”
2 years ago the Orioles had by far and away the best farm system in all of baseball. If you look at the Orioles top prospect list going into the 2023 season the entire top 10 have made it through the minors, were recognized at top 100 prospects, and then were called up to the majors and that doesn’t even include Samuel Basallo who was outside of the O’s top 10 list in 2023 but is now arguably their best prospect.
With a farm system that stacked the Orioles could have made a move similar to what the Red Sox just did and package multiple top prospects for a young star pitcher with multiple years of control but instead of trading a large package of prospects for a great player with multiple years of control the O’s have preferred to deal out their prospects bit by bit in exchange for rental pieces or buy lows.
Over the past 2 seasons the Orioles have said goodbye to the following notable prospects:
Joey Ortiz
DL Hall
Connor Norby
Kyle Stowers
Mac Horvath
Jackson Baumeister
Matthew Etzel
Seth Johnson
Moises Chace
Cesar Prieto
Drew Rom
Zach Showalter
Darrell Hernaiz
And thanks to those moves the 2025 Orioles have:
Zach Eflin
Trevor Rogers
Gregory Soto
Now I am not saying that the Orioles shouldn’t have made those trades, I think the Zach Eflin trade was a great deal for the O’s and I would have done that Burnes trade 100 times out of 100 but when you look at the sheer amount of prospects going out the door it does beg the question of would a more aggressive trade have benefitted the Orioles more than prospect hugging and making several smaller trades for rentals?
Would the White Sox have accepted the Burnes, Flaherty and Rogers trade packages combined for 2 and half years of Dylan Cease? If the Orioles traded Ortiz, Hall, Norby, Stowers, Prieto, Rom, Showalter and comp pick for Dylan Cease at the 2023 trade deadline they might have “overpaid” for a pitcher but had they done that they would have had Cease for the 2023 playoffs (which might be the last World Series not won by the Dodgers or the Mets), all last season and he’d be headlining the rotation for this season.
Of course this is all hindsight and it would have been very irresponsible for the front office to trade 7 prospects and draft pick for 1 pitcher but those prospects got traded anyway and all the Orioles have to show for it today are some good memories of Corbin Burnes and Trevor Rogers.
The point of all this is not to disparage the decisions that the Orioles front office has made over the last few years, like I said several of the trades they’ve made have been objectively good moves. But for the most part they were trades for short term rentals and there isn’t a farm system in baseball that can sustain trading for a top of the rotation starter every year and as of now the O’s no longer have a surplus of highly regarded prospects to put in trades that they once had.
This means they need to make their next trade for a starter really count. It can’t be a 1 year rental, it needs to be a trade where the Orioles give up multiple top prospects for a pitcher that will be on the team for multiple years. (Ideally the pitcher they bring in should also be good so Trevor Rogers doesn’t count)
What kind of package can the Orioles put together?
If the Orioles want to acquire a top of the rotation pitcher with multiple years of control they are going to have to have to put real prospects on the table. The Crochet trade got the White Sox the #4, #5, #11 and #14 prospects from a stacked Red Sox farm system. This would have been like the Orioles trading Westburg, Cowser, Beavers and Povich before the 2023 season and the consensus on the deal was that it was a good trade for the Red Sox because they didn’t have to trade any of their top 3 prospects and I agree.
The current Orioles farm system is not deep enough to make a splash trade without trading one of our top 3 prospects but our very top prospects are highly regarded enough to bring in an impact starter. The question is would Mike Elias even consider trading Mayo or Basallo?
The Orioles have never come out and said that they won’t trade their top prospects but their actions have made it clear they’re keeping their best guys for themselves. Adley, Gunnar and Grayson were all top 10 prospects and those guys are going to be Orioles for many years. Ortiz, Norby and Hall were fringe top 100 guys and they all play for different teams. Mayo is currently MLB pipelines number 8 prospect and Samuel Basallo sits at 12, if either of them got traded it would be by far the Orioles most aggressive move under Mike Elias.
There is not currently an obvious place for either of these guys on the team, Mayo is blocked at third by Westburg and at first by Mountcastle and O’Hearn while Basallo is blocked by the Orioles franchise cornerstone catcher Adley Rutschman. Now it isn’t impossible to make room for these guys but this will likely be the last time in several years that Mike Elias has 2 of the best prospects in baseball and a good enough roster that they could be considered expendable.
Another name that is floating around in trade rumors is Heston Kjerstad whose value is something of a mystery to me. He was a top prospect when he debuted in 2023 but in 2025 he will be 26 with 129 ABs at the major league level. By comparison Issac Paredes, who was just traded for Kyle Tucker, is 6 days younger than Kjerstad and has 1,537.
I believe that Kjerstad will be a good player and I would like to see him get a chance to be an everyday player in Baltimore but with the Tyler O’Neill signing Kjerstad is looking at a timeshare situation in the outfield at best. With that in mind it makes sense that Kjerstad could be more valuable to the Orioles as a trade piece but how will other teams see his value.
The O’s would be viewing Kjerstad as top prospect who is worth a lot on the market and they would be hoping that teams around the league view him that same way but I wouldn’t blame other teams for seeing a 26 year old who can’t crack the starting outfield in Baltimore and view him more as a reclamation project and not as the kind of player that can headline a trade for an ace. So while Mayo and Basallo would be appealing to pretty much any team trading Kjerstad could be a little trickier.
After you get past those 3 there isn’t anyone else in the farm system that you could build an aggressive trade package around. I just don’t see any teams giving up a really good starter with multiple years of control for an Enrique Bradfield package.
Here are the Orioles trade piece tiers
Tier 1: Headliners
Coby Mayo – Samuel Basallo
The ultimate prize for any team trading with the Orioles will be one of these 2 guys, there is no world where a team gets both.
Tier 2: Ultimate sweetener
Heston Kjerstad
As I said earlier Kjerstad’s age makes him a tier below the two guys in tier 1. If the Orioles trade Kjerstad in addition to one of the tier 1 guys I wouldn’t expect there to be much else in the package.
Tier 3: Former top picks and other easily recognizable minor league talent
Enrique Bradfield – Vance Honeycutt – Dylan Beavers – Chayce McDermott – Griff O’Ferrall – Jud Fabian
Bradfield and Honeycutt are the Orioles last two first round picks and have some name recognition value. Beavers and Fabian are from a few drafts ago but have progressed well through the minors and should debut at some point this season. McDermott is the kind of pitcher that a team could dream on if they feel like they can hone his command.
Tier 4: Major League Talent
Ryan Mountcastle – Ryan O’Hearn – Ramon Urias – Dean Kremer
Depending on the team they might prefer to get real major leaguers rather than prospects so here are some guys from crowded position groups that teams might be interested in.
Tier 5: Lower minor league talent
I’m not going to put the names here but if a team prefers a couple of teenagers in rookie ball over Dylan Beavers then more power to them it’s up to the Orioles self scouting to know which of those guys to protect and which ones to sprinkle into a deal. I won’t pretend to know much about what’s going on down there.
Who should the Orioles be targeting?
There are a few different kinds of trade targets that would immediately improve the Orioles rotation and I’ll quickly tier those as well:
Tier 1 – True Ace with multiple years of control
Tier 2 – Controllable young pitcher with lots of potential
Tier 3 – Veteran starter under contract for several years
These kinds of pitchers are some of the most valuable assets a team can have, so it takes a special situation for a team to be willing to trade one even if they are being offered an aggressive trade package.
As I look around the league here are teams that could be willing to trade a starter
The Seattle Mariners
I’m starting with the Mariners because they are the most obvious candidate for a trade. The Mariners have the best rotation in baseball. In 2024 their starters ranked 1st in ERA, 1st in innings, 3rd in FIP and 4th in WAR. They had four pitchers start over 30 games and throw over 175 innings. By comparison the Orioles had 1 guy that did that last year and he’s a free agent now. In fact with Burnes in the wind the Mariner’s rotation has 5 guys that would immediately be the best pitcher in the Orioles rotation.
The reason that the Mariners are such obvious trade partners is that despite their elite rotation they have missed the playoffs in back to back seasons because their offense has been so bad. Last year the Mariners ranked 29th in hits, 21st in runs, 1st in strikeouts (in a bad way), 25th in slugging, and 23rd in OPS. The team was, in a word, unbalanced.
It makes sense then for the Mariners to trade from their strength in the rotation to improve their weakness at the plate and like I said they have 5 guys that would be instant upgrades to the Orioles rotation and the O’s have both prospects and Major leaguers that would be instant upgrades for the Mariners.
First base, Third base, DH and Corner outfield are all areas where the the Mariners were both old and unproductive last year so young bat first guys like Mayo and Kjerstad would be welcome additions and guys like Ryan Mountcastle or Ryan O’Hearn could also be desirable for a Mariners team so bereft of offensive talent. Additionally the Mariners being the Mariners are always interested in pitchers so Chayce McDermott or Cade Povich could be in a Mariners trade as well.
Most of the Mariners pitchers have 3 or more years of control so with one exception any package for a Mariners starter will cost the Orioles their very best offer.
Logan Gilbert
ERA: 3.23 | xERA: 3.08 | FIP: 3.27 | xFIP: 3.11 | WHIP: 0.887 | K/9: 9.5 | WAR: 2.8 | IP: 208.2
Age: 28
FA: 2028
Gilbert had maybe the best season out of anyone on this vaunted rotation but due to his age and the fact he would be the first of their young starters to hit free agency he might be the arm they are most willing to move in a trade. The combination of his contract status and the fact that he is such a proven commodity on the mound as far as durability and production with now 3 straight seasons of 180+ innings and an ERA below 3.75 could make it so Gilbert is the single most valuable trade asset that is truly available.
Luis Castillo
ERA: 3.64 | xERA: 3.94 | FIP: 3.91 | xFIP: 3.94 | WHIP: 1.169 | K/9: 9.0 | WAR: 1.8 | IP: 175.1
Age: 32
FA: 2028/2029
Unlike the rest of the Mariners rotation who are mostly pre arb and early arb guys Castillo is a veteran who signed a long term deal with the Mariners ahead of the 2023 season. At 32 he had maybe the worst season of his career which speaks to how good his career has been because he was still an above average pitcher and an above average pitcher who gives you 30 starts is valuable.
But is he 24 million dollars a year valuable which is what the Mariners are set to pay him through at least 2027 if not 2028. The Mariners are famously a very cost conscious franchise so imagine they wouldn’t mind not paying their fifth best starter 24 million dollars. On the other hand if Luis Castillo bounces back at all he would be the best starter on the Orioles and paying 24 million a year for your best starter makes much more sense.
Because Castillo experienced a decline last year and the Mariners love saving money, this is the one guy on their staff that I believe the Orioles could get without losing Mayo or Basallo.
Bryce Miller
ERA: 2.94 | xERA: 3.72 | FIP: 3.58 | xFIP: 3.85 | WHIP: 0.976 | K/9: 8.5 | WAR: 3.4 | IP: 180.1
Age: 26
FA: 2029
Miller is an interesting case because by some metrics like WAR and ERA he was the best qualified pitcher on this staff but a lot of the advanced stats don’t love him quite as much. Based on his production, age, and contract status he’d still be worth a large trade package but I’d be much more worried about giving up a lot for Miller than for Gilbert but scared money don’t make money so if Miller is the guy the Mariners will entertain trading then let it rip.
Bryan Woo
ERA: 2.89 | xERA: 2.72 | FIP: 3.40 | xFIP: 3.75 | WHIP: 0.898 | K/9: 7.5 | WAR: 2.4 | IP: 121.1
Age: 24
FA: 2030
Bryan Woo is the least established of the starters on this team but he could end up being the best of them all. For that reason it feels like the Mariners will have a strong grasp on him in any trade talks. He’s never pitched a full season workload though so that could play a factor in deciding whether or not a front office feels comfortable giving up the farm for him.
George Kirby
ERA: 3.53 | xERA: 3.39 | FIP: 3.26 | xFIP: 3.58 | WHIP: 1.068 | K/9: 8.4 | WAR: 1.9 | IP: 191
Age: 27
FA: 2029
I don’t see a way that the Mariner’s trade George Kirby, whatever the stats say Kirby is the best starter on the team. He’s proven to be durable and effective in back to back seasons and he’s under team control through 2029. If I could do a Madden force trade (or whatever the baseball version of that is) on the Mariners Kirby is the guy I’d be after.
The Minnesota Twins
The Twins are kind of diet version of the Seattle Mariners. Their rotation is not quite as good and their lineup isn’t quite as bad but they have a similar imbalance that led to them underachieving this past season.
The issue for the Twins is less that that their guys can’t hit and more that they can’t get guys in the lineup consistently. Last season the Twins had 2 position players play 130+ games and 1 of those guys is out the door in free agency. The O’s by comparison had 6 guys eclipse that mark last year. The entire Twins outfield needs to be addressed as do their corner infield positions which are exactly the kinds of pieces the Orioles could offer in the trade.
In addition to needing the upgrade the roster the Twins also are reportedly looking to reduce their payroll so they could be financially motivated to swap out pitchers making millions for Orioles prospects slated to make about 800K.
Pablo Lopez
ERA: 4.08 | xERA: 3.70 | FIP: 3.65 | xFIP: 3.36 | WHIP: 1.192 | K/9: 9.6 | WAR: 2.5 | IP: 185.1
Age: 29
FA: 2028
After looking at so many Mariners starters it may come as a shock to see an ERA that starts with 4 but I don’t put too much stock in that. Lopez has a long track record of being both effective and available and last year he got a little unlucky with some balls sneaking out of the park and some bad BABIP and I full expect him to bounce back next year and going forward be more like the 2023 version of himself. He’s still young enough that he shouldn’t be declining.
Similar to Castillo Lopez signed what could be considered a team friendly deal and he’ll be making 21 million a year for the next 3 years but with the Twins looking to reduce payroll and coming off a disappointing season they could be convinced to trade Lopez.
Bailey Ober
ERA: 3.98 | xERA: 3.24 | FIP: 3.82 | xFIP: 3.83 | WHIP: 1.002 | K/9: 9.6 | WAR: 2.9 | IP: 178.2
Age: 29
FA: 2028
Similar to Lopez it feels like Ober’s ERA is inflated compared to his ability, but regardless of what some of the stats say Ober would be an immediate upgrade for the top of the O’s rotation. He’d be such an upgrade and he’d be so cheap that I don’t see why the Twins would even entertain trading him unless they were just enamored with Coby Mayo.
Joe Ryan
ERA: 3.60 | xERA: 2.90 | FIP: 3.44 | xFIP: 3.44 | WHIP: 0.985 | K/9: 9.8 | WAR: 2.3 | IP: 135
Age: 29
FA: 2028
I don’t know where the Twins found all of these really good pitchers who will be under contract until their mid 30s but good for them. Maybe having 2 of them will make the Twins think they are expendable and consider trading one of them. Ryan specially would be a great addition in Baltimore he’s got nasty stuff and he doesn’t walk anyone he’s not a ground ball pitcher so having 2 elite defensive outfielders in Cowser and Mullins behind him will help him much more than the amalgamation of so and sos that the Twins were rolling out in the outfield.
The Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates have a superstar in Paul Skenes so the clock is running for them to build a good team around him. When you look at their roster and farm system it is immediately apparent that most of the talent in their organization is on the mound. They have Skenes, Jones, Keller and 3 pitching prospects in MLB pipelines top 100 all set to be on the major league team next year and when you look at their position players there are just a lot more question marks as to who is going to be an important part of the Pirates core going forward.
It makes sense for the Pirates to trade from a place of strength and reportedly they have been willing to listen on Jared Jones
Jared Jones
ERA: 4.14 | xERA: 4.05 | FIP: 4.00 | xFIP: 3.78 | WHIP: 1.192 | K/9: 9.8 | WAR: 1.8 | IP: 121.2
Age: 23
FA: 2031
Jones’ numbers are similar to Crochet’s in the sense that he came out of the gate hot and looked like one of the best pitchers in the league and then as the season went along his team put him on a pitch count and tried to keep him from overworking himself pitching for an eliminated team and during that time his numbers crept up and become more average.
Regardless of what the numbers say Jones flashed real potential to be a top of the rotation starter and it is a rare opportunity to trade for a good pitcher after his rookie season, the O’s should be willing to put their best foot forward in trade negotiations for Jones.
The Miami Marlins
In 2023 the Marlins were a surprise postseason team. They had pitching and some fun hitters but they were in many ways lucky to be there and were ultimately outclassed. When Peter Bendix took over after the season he very quickly realized that the team did not have a strong foundation for immediate or long term success and began what I imagine is a pretty fun project for a new General Manager, a full tear down.
So far Bendix has traded away Luis Arraez, AJ Puk, Jazz Chisholm, Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell, Jon Berti, Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers and most recently Jake Burger and to quote the late great Kobe Bryant “Job’s not done”. Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Luzardo both remain on the roster and trading them would only help in Bendix’s quest to remake the Marlin’s farm system.
Sandy Alcantara
ERA: 4.14 | xERA: 4.33 | FIP: 4.00 | xFIP: 4.03 | WHIP: 1.213 | K/9: 7.4 | WAR: 3.4 | IP: 184.2 (2023 stats)
Age: 29
FA: 2027/2028
Alcantara will be coming off a major injury and as you can see from his 2023 number his last fully healthy season was not a barn burner but in 2022 he won the Cy Young and turned in a truly special season. Assuming he is healthy this year he will be 29 and still in his prime so it is not out of the question that within the remaining 3 years of his contract he could reclaim his Cy Young form.
The contract is extremely team friendly, if the O’s got Alcantara they would be paying him slightly more than the Cubs are paying Matthew Boyd. The problem is that the Marlins got 2 good Orioles prospects in exchange for the right to have Trevor Rogers pitch for the Norfolk Tides for the next 2 years so if we ask for Alcantara they’ll probably expect Gunnar in return.
Jesus Luzardo
ERA: 5.00 | xERA: 4.55 | FIP: 4.26 | xFIP: 4.23 | WHIP: 1.245 | K/9: 7.8 | WAR: 0.9 | IP: 66.2
Age: 27
FA: 2027
So these numbers and a season ending injury don’t scream slam dunk trade acquisition but Luzardo is still very young for how much experience he has (how many players can say they’ve played playoff baseball for both the Marlins and the A’s) and when he has been healthy he has been a very effective pitcher. In 2023 he had a 3.58 ERA with a K/9 of 10.5 in 32 starts for the Marlins.
The many injuries that Luzardo has suffered make him a risky trade target but will also work to drive down the asking price. I believe Luzardo could be acquired for a much smaller package than many of the other pitchers we’ve listed so far and he has the upside to be just as effective.
The St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have been one of the most consistent teams in all of baseball over the last quarter century. Since 2000 the Cardinals have made the playoffs 16 times and have had just 2 losing seasons but today the Cardinals are staring at the face of a multi-year rebuild and first step in a multi year rebuild is to shed all of expensive veterans. They’ve allowed Paul Goldschmidt to walk, they’ve declined Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn’s club options and they’ve already tried to trade Nolan Arenado and it is all but a certainty that he will eventually be traded this offseason.
Once Arenado is gone the biggest contract left on the books will be Sonny Gray.
Sonny Gray
ERA: 3.84 | xERA: 3.70 | FIP: 3.12 | xFIP: 2.82 | WHIP: 1.088 | K/9: 11 | WAR: 1.8 | IP: 166.1
Age: 35
FA: 2027/2028
Sonny Gray has a long track record of being a very good starter with some high peaks as recently as 2023. Gray came down a little bit in 2024 which was to be expected but he still put together a solid year and he looks like he should be able to continue to produce at a high level for the duration of his current contract.
The issue with pursuing Sonny Gray is the way his contract is set up. The deal was reported as 3 years 75 million but the first year was only 10 million so in 2026 Gray will be paid 35 million dollars which is a lot to be paying any pitcher even if they are a Cy Young caliber pitcher which is not a guarantee for Gray at age 36.
Still Gray would be an immediate upgrade to the Orioles situation and his less than team friendly contract could make it so the Orioles don’t have to offer any prospects of real consequence, or they could opt to give the Cardinals a worthwhile prospect in exchange for St. Louis paying some of Gray’s contract which would make it easier to stomach.
The Dishwasher 
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