Mike Elias plays things pretty close to the vest. His press conferences are generic and his signings rarely get leaked in advance. In general I think this is a good thing as there is little benefit to broadcasting your plans and intentions as a front office but as a fan it can be frustrating being left in the dark.
The local media asks Elias tough questions all the time but he tends to deflect with vague platitudes about “weighing all the options” and “building towards sustainable success” so the only way to get some straight answers out of him would be to tie him down, feed him some truth serum and ask him a series of important questions.
I don’t know where to get truth serum so while I work on that here are the questions I would ask Mike Elias.
What was your final offer to Corbin Burnes?
Maybe there are better questions to start with but I’m very curious about this one. Shortly after the news that Corbin Burnes had signed with the Diamondbacks there was a report that specifically said that Toronto and San Francisco had offered more that the 210 million that Burnes got from Arizona but that he had preferred Arizona for family reasons. There was also a report that the Orioles “were also aggressive in their pursuit” which I guess is nice to hear but it notably didn’t say they offered Burnes more than the Diamondbacks did which almost assuredly means they offered the same or less.
Some people have taken the fact that Burnes took less money to mean that there was nothing that the Orioles could have done to sign him but just a few days before Burnes signed there was a leak that Burnes was asking for 7 years 245 million. The fact this report came out just days before he signed for significantly less than his reported desired amount leads me to believe that if a team had offered 7 years 245 million he would have signed with them even if they weren’t his desired market.
As far as what we could learn from truth serum Mike I’d love to know what his “aggressive in pursuit” offer was, whether it was the AAV or the length of the deal that made is so they couldn’t bid on the level of the Blue Jays and Giants, if they worried about the early opt outs and if they asked him to defer money.
What kinds of extension offers have you made to the young stars? Are you planning on extending the young stars?
Scott Boras has said that the Orioles have been calling him a lot about their young players that he represents which includes Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday. Boras has also said that the conversations he’s had with the Orioles have been much more aggressive and serious since David Rubenstein took over. There was also a report during the Winter Meetings that they were working on an extension with Adley Rutschman. But besides these tiny morsels of information we have heard very little about the Orioles’ plans to keep their young core together.
Obviously it takes two to tango in these situations and with so many of the O’s young core being represented by Scott Boras it is expected that the Orioles aren’t going to get a bunch of scam contracts like the Atlanta Braves but I am curious to know what sort of offers the Orioles have made. There is a big difference between offering a dirt cheap extension just to see if anyone is desperate enough to take it and making a competitive offer that will convince one of the best players in baseball to forgo free agency.
These guys seem to really like playing with each other and none of them seem like the types that would feel like they need to be in a big market so to me it seems like if the Orioles made a fair offer they would accept.
I’d love to be able to ask truth serum Mike what his extension offers have looked like and what he has heard back from our young guys as far as what they are looking for. How big is the gap between what we are offering and what they are asking for? Are they asking for more than we could give or are we making insulting low offers?
How much have you been cleared to spend?
This one has a follow up question which is are we still trying to be the Rays?
David Rubenstein has said that he didn’t buy the Orioles to make money and Elias has said in many different ways that he has ownership’s support to increase payroll. These are nice words to hear but with no extensions and no big multi year free agent signings (Tyler O’Neill has an opt out after the first year so I am considering that a 1 year deal from now on) it does make you wonder what any of those words mean.
There was a sourced article written that basically said that Rubenstein is completely deferring the Mike Elias and that the reason the Orioles haven’t spent any money is because Mike Elias doesn’t want to spend any money, that he wants to win a world series “his way” to prove how smart he is.
To me that report seemed like too much to be true. Elias would have to be among the most narcissistic general managers ever to be purposely fielding a worse team just to stroke his own ego. I do believe that Rubenstein is deferring to Elias on all baseball decisions, there hasn’t been a single move since Rubenstein bought the team that smelled like an owner came in and banged his fist on the table and honestly that is probably a good thing. One of the worst things that can happen to a team is when a new overzealous owner comes in and makes a bunch of moves in an attempt to put their fingerprints on the team that ultimately cripple the teams future, what Bill Simmons calls “New Owner Syndrome”
I also think that even though Rubenstein has probably made Elias aware that he can spend more Elias is still being cautious because that is his nature and he is overly worried that if he makes a big swing and it’s a miss he could ruin everything he has built and even be fired by an owner who did not hire him. Chaim Bloom built the Red Sox farm system from one of the worst in MLB to the very best and Red Sox fans are mostly going to remember him for the Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida contracts.
Another concern along these lines that I have is are we still trying to be the Rays? To me “being the Rays” means not signing anyone to a long term deal, letting players play through arbitration until they have just a year or two left under control and then trading them and just cycling through having players on cheap contracts which to me sounds absolutely miserable and every time John Angelos said that his goals was to be like the Rays and Guardians I wanted to throw him into the Chesapeake Bay.
Plenty of teams run a sort of diet Rays operation, notably the Astros, where Elias was bred, have only kept guys willing to sign significantly under market extensions and have let guys like Carlos Correa and George Springer leave in free agency and most recently traded away Kyle Tucker. I worry that Elias may be thinking we’re going to have the Gunnar and Adley Orioles and then when they leave we’ll have the Holliday and Basallo Orioles and then he’ll draft more stars to replace them.
Anyway these are all just thoughts of mine and you know who could clear them up? Truth serum Mike.
So I’d like to ask him exactly how much he has been given permission to spend. Is it 150 million per year? 200? 250? Why hasn’t he given out any multi year deals? Is he worried that if he signs some bad contracts that ownership will pull back on the spending? Does he plan on extending anyone at all?
What kind of offer have you made Anthony Santander?
Estimates about what Santander would get in free agency were all over the place but as the months have worn on with him unsigned it would appear that the price for Santander’s services might be more palatable to the Orioles than originally anticipated.
So the question is did we make him a real offer? He is a huge fan favorite and he likes playing for the Orioles so I would think that he would be willing to come back as long as the offer was in the realm of respectability. It would appear that his biggest suitor at the moment is the Blue Jays and even if the Orioles weren’t willing to match the dollar amount on the contract he would make more money in Baltimore if they got close.
So tell me Truth Serum Mike, did you make a real offer?
Do you think this rotation is good enough?
I’d be interested to see someone ask him this point blank at a press conference even without truth serum just to get a read of his face.
I think if you asked almost anyone they would say this rotation is not nearly good enough but I could easily see Elias and Co convincing themselves that G-Rod is about to make a leap, that Eflin is a solid 2 and that between Kremer, Sugano, Morton, Povich, McDermott and Suarez they have enough depth to get through the regular season until Bradish comes back and that if they roll with Bradish, Rodriguez and Eflin into the playoffs that is good enough.
The answer to this question would be especially beneficial to me because if he just came out and said that he thinks this rotation is good enough and he is not going to try to upgrade it then that would save me a lot of time spent thinking about possible trades.
I hope he says he doesn’t think it’s good enough.
Who have you called about trading for a pitcher?
Assuming Truth Serum Mike tells us that he knows the rotation needs help then the next question is what is he doing about it. For years fans and media alike have been drawing up mock trades between the Orioles and the Mariners but has Elias ever sent Jerry Dipoto a screenshot of one and said “hey how about this one?”. Has he called Minnesota? Has he called Pittsburgh? He’s done plenty of deals with Miami but I’d be interested to know who Elias is interested in? Are all his targets projects and castoffs or is there an Ace he thinks he pry away for the right price?
This is a question that could have a lot of follow ups. If he says he’s called the Mariners I’d like to know who he asked for, who they asked for, and how close have they actually come to getting a deal done?
Who are you offering in trades?
This would be closely related to the last question but it would be good to know who Elias considers tradeable. Is he willing to move a top prospect that doesn’t have a clear path to immediate playing time? Would he rather trade some of the more tenured players like Mountcastle or Mullins? Would he ever do a 1 for 1 swap with a guy like Westburg or Cowser in exchange for an Ace? Or is he only interested in moving guys that truly have no chance of making the major league club like he did with Mac Horvath and Matthew Etzel?
Where is Coby Mayo going to play?
We might have to get Brandon Hyde on some truth serum to get the answer that really matters, which is where he is willing to let Coby Mayo play but since we’re already talking to Mike it would be good to get the front office perspective on where they think Mayo will eventually fit in.
As of right now it seems like they want Westburg at third, Henderson at short and Holliday at 2nd. That would make the most obvious place to put Mayo at first but right now Ryan Mountcastle exists and he provides a pretty high floor as far as first base production and he also stands to benefit the most from the left field wall being moved back in so the O’s should be intrigued by what he can do in these last two years of arbitration so there is not a ready made spot for Mayo at the moment.
There are some similarities between Mayo’s debut last year and Cowser’s the year before so is the plan to have him ride the bench to start the year and hit in spots and if he excels have him slowly take over first base and then trade Mountcastle?
I suppose with Mayo and Mountcaslte on the roster you could find a way to get both of them and O’Neill into the lineup to face a lefty and maybe that is what is most important. Still it seems like a poor use of a top ten prospect to have him be the short side of a platoon at DH.
Is it under consideration that Mayo could still play third and Westburg could go to second and Holliday to the outfield? One of Mayo’s biggest tools is his arm so could he be effective as a corner outfielder?
I believe that the best way for a top prospect to develop is for them to play everyday so I don’t love the idea that Mayo is a player without a position so I’d just like to know what the plan is.
Where is Samuel Basallo going to play?
Samuel Basallo is coming up as a catching prospect and as many people know the Orioles have a pretty good catcher that they took first overall in the 2019 draft currently on the roster. So when you have an undeniable prospect knocking on the doors of the majors and his position is filled by a franchise cornerstone player that means you have an important decision to make.
Rutschman and McCann split the catcher duties more evenly than you might expect so it is possible that when Basallo first gets called up he and Adley split between catcher and DH. That should be just fine at first while Basallo gets his feet wet but once he is more established and if he is the hitter that the Orioles expect him to be then he is going to want and be entitled to a position besides backup catcher/DH.
The other position that Basallo has experience fielding is at first base where he started 31 games last year. So if he wants to take over as the primary first baseman then that is going to clash with Mayo, Mountcastle and possibly Kjerstad as well.
We’ll have to get truth serum Mike to tell us how he expects to fit all these guys into the lineup.
Did you get a meeting with Roki Sasaki? Did you even try?
When Shohei Ohtani came over from Japan the Orioles GM at the time made it very well known that the Orioles were not even a little bit interested in courting the two way phenomenon. So while the odds are against the Orioles signing Roki Sasaki it would be nice to know if we’re making any progress as far as at least getting a meeting with the next big thing from Japan.
What are you going to do if Jackson Holliday is bad next year?
I’d be a little scared to ask Truth Serum Mike this question but I do have something of a morbid curiosity to know how the Orioles would rebound from Holliday being a bust. The O’s aren’t necessarily depending on Holliday the way they are other players but him taking a big step forward and staking his claim at second base would go a long way toward the Orioles reaching their potential and him continuing to struggle like he did all last year would put a lot more pressure on Coby Mayo and mean a lot more playing time for guys like Emmanuelle Rivera and eventually Jorge Mateo which just gives the Orioles a much lower ceiling.
Part of what makes the Holliday question so interesting is that he is so young. If the entire 2025 season passes and he never figures it out he would go into the 2026 season at 22 which is still really young so would they just have him try again? If he gets off to a slow start next season could they send him down until 2026? How many plate appearances hitting below .200 would it take for the Orioles to give up on him? Would they ever trade him? Is that card Emma Roberts found ever going to be worth anything?
Are you behind the twitter account MLBExecutiveBurner (@hotstoveintel)?
I saw someone made a thread on twitter about how they thought this account belonged to Mike Elias and while there wasn’t concrete evidence there were some interesting connections such as the burner having the official slogan of Yale University where Mike Elias went to school in it’s bio and the account starting in November of 2018 when Mike Elias was hired.
Personally in following the account it has said some things that make me think it could be Elias like how they recently tweeted about how good the Orioles rotation is and the fact that they regularly tweet like a reactionary conservative.
The burner also regularly offers opinions as well, for example it recently posted that the Tigers offseason was a disaster so if Truth Serum Mike were to confirm that is his burner it would be interesting to see what his true thoughts about other teams have been over the last few years.
At this point we will have asked Elias so many questions that the effects of the truth serum will be wearing off and he’ll start answering my questions by saying he’ll have to weigh all the options and we’ll have to let him go.
The Dishwasher 
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