Lose – Lose

After a disappointing spring training Coby Mayo was optioned back to minor league camp. Before leaving he gave one of those “real” quotes that people always wish athletes would give but then don’t love so much when they give them. 

“It definitely is difficult, it obviously sucks because you feel like you’ve proven everything you’ve needed to. Sometimes it doesn’t feel like it’s quite enough. Obviously you go back there and if you have success, it’s: ‘Oh, well he’s supposed to have success because he’s already proven it,’ and if he doesn’t have success, it’s, ‘Oh, well, obviously he’s fallen off.””

Right or wrong, the feelings that Coby Mayo is expressing in this quote are understandable. For years now it has been obvious that the Orioles had more infield prospects than there are positions in the infield. Players can look at the same prospect rankings that the fans do so I’m sure Mayo has known for some time that his path to being an everyday player on the Baltimore Orioles was going to be more complicated than just play well in the minors and get promoted. 

Look at these prospect rankings going into 2023

If you are Coby Mayo in 2023 you are looking up at 5 infielders that are all ranked higher than you and for the most part are further along in the minors than you. If it was the other way around and Mayo was the 10th ranked O’s prospect in 2023 but about to make his debut then at least he would have had a chance to carve out a role before so many talented players started vying for playing time but as it was the guys ranked higher also made the majors before him and then for the most part were very good. 

In order to be a professional athlete you have to be competitive and confident so I am sure Mayo had told himself if he just played well enough he would rise to the top and take a spot on the Orioles roster no matter who was in front of him and to a certain degree that is what happened. Over the past few seasons Mayo was incredibly impressive in the minors here is his slashline compared to the Orioles’ other top prospects in their last season in triple A: 

Mayo: .293/.372/.592

Henderson: .288/.390/.504

Westburg: .294/.372/.567

Jackson Holliday: .271/.431/.477

Connor Norby: .297.389/.519

Joey Ortiz: .321/.378/.507

Colton Cowser: .300/.417/.520

Heston Kjerstad: .303/.401/.584

Adley Rutschman: .312/.405/.490

You can see out of the Orioles’ recent top prospects Mayo has an argument that he was the very best at the plate (Kjerstad’s numbers are a tick better but he was 25 in triple A compared to Mayo being 22) as a result of this success Mayo rapidly rose up top prospect rankings and the Orioles felt comfortable trading Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz, but unfortunately for Mayo major league roster spots are not decided by what your numbers were in triple A.

Coming into this spring training almost all of the opening day roster spots were spoken for. Here are the players that were guaranteed a roster spot coming into spring training either because of their tenure at the position or because they just signed a contract. 

Adley Rutschman 

Gary Sanchez

Ryan Mountcastle

Ryan O’Hearn

Gunnar Henderson (I know that today it was announced that he will miss the first week of the season and that technically opens another spot but I don’t think the O’s are going use one of Coby Mayo’s options to have him ride the bench for a week until Gunnar comes back, it’ll be Livan Soto or somebody like that.)

Jordan Westburg

Colton Cowser

Cedric Mullins 

Tyler O’Neill 

Ramon Laureano

That leaves 3 position player spots left that will most likely be filled by Heston Kjerstad, Jackson Holliday and Ramon Urias.

I don’t think those 3 all had guaranteed spots like those first 10 guys but they certainly had an inside track. Hyde said several time early in Spring Training that Kjerstad had nothing to prove in triple A and that he was owed a chance to get consistent major league playing time (I still don’t know how they plan to do that but whatever), the front office clearly likes Ramon Urias’ versatility and Jackson Holliday is just ahead of Mayo as a prospect and despite his struggles last year was a positive WAR player because of his defense at second. 

If Mayo had come in and looked like Brooks Robinson at third base or had hit .500 with 8 bombs it is possible he might have made the roster over Ramon Urias or Jackson Holliday so I’m not saying he had no chance to make the team but he had less of a chance than a prospect of his caliber and experience should have had. 

As Matt Weyrich pointed out shortly after it was announced that Mayo would be demoted, Mayo has played more games at triple A than any of the Orioles top prospects except Jordan Westburg. 

So Mayo has played more triple A games than almost any of the other members of the young core and has been better at the plate than any of them and yet he will start the 2025 season in Norfolk. It’s gotta be frustrating! Almost any other organization would be clearing space on their roster to make room for a prospect like Coby Mayo and giving him a long runway to succeed at the major league level but that’s just not the situation he’s in with Baltimore. 

It’s not that there is no route for Mayo to get back on the major league roster, it’s that what he does in triple A will not be the deciding factor as to whether or not he will get another shot. As long as everyone slated to be on the major league roster is healthy and playing reasonably well the Orioles are not likely to boot anyone off the roster to make room for Coby Mayo. 

So Coby Mayo has basically been reduced to being triple A injury insurance which is a role that last year was filled by Nick Maton. It’s just not a good use of a top prospect and the only way that everyone doesn’t look back at this as a huge waste is if the Orioles make some trades.

So far the Orioles have shown no interest in retaining their “rebuild core”. They traded Austin Hays, they let Anthony Santander walk and now Cedric Mullins is in his walk year without even the faintest rumor of a contract extension. In two seasons when it is time for Mountcastle to hit free agency it seems unlikely that he would be the first guy the Orioles would extend.

If you could force feed Mike Elias some truth serum he would say that his plan is for Mayo to take over at first base for Ryan Mountcastle. The problem is that Mayo is ready too soon so instead of a nice smooth transition of power there is more of an awkward logjam (It would be so much more convenient for the front office if it was Enrique Bradfield knocking on the door of the majors). There is no world where Mayo waits two more years in triple A so the front office needs to choose one of these guys and trade the other one for some pitching. 

I understand that is easier said than done especially since both of these guys have somewhat depressed trade values because of their last season. So to an extent I understand holding onto them so far. In a perfect world Mountcastle taps back into his pull power with the new left field wall and Coby Mayo looks awesome in triple A and a month from now they are both much more appealing trade pieces than they are today. However we don’t live in a perfect world and there will likely never be a perfect time to trade one of these guys.

The Orioles desperately need help in both the rotation and the bullpen and whatever they could get from either a Mountcaslte or a Mayo trade would make the team a lot better and improve their chances of winning the division and maybe even a single playoff game. It is rare that a team has enough depth that they can afford to trade either a solid major leaguer or a highly regarded prospect and know that they’ll be fine no matter who they chose but I worry that the Orioles will waste an opportunity this season because they were too cautious to trade either one of these guys. 

If the Orioles track record holds true they are going to eventually choose Coby Mayo over Ryan Mountcastle. Even though I am high on what Mounty could do this year in a stadium that doesn’t have Looney Tunes dimensions there is very little he could do to make it so the Orioles would consider him the long term answer at first, we saw Anthony Santander hit 44 homers in his final year and the front office still went along with their plan to let him walk.

So if Mayo is who you want to eventually be the guy at first and he’s done his time at triple A then the Orioles should be clearing space for him even if that means living with some rookie growing pains his first few months in the big leagues.

The reason this doesn’t seem like an option for the Orioles is because their pitching staff is so poor that they don’t have the margin for error to lose the high floor that Mountcastle brings at first base. The Orioles offense is going to be leaned on heavily this year and they just can’t afford to get nothing from the first base position while Mayo figures it out.

It’s a vicious cycle where the part of the reason the pitching staff is bad because the Orioles didn’t trade Mayo for pitching and because the pitching staff is bad the Orioles can’t afford to let those Mayo play.

I’m not here to bang the table and scream that Mountcastle should be traded, I think that the Orioles would be just fine if they extended Mounty and kept him at first base for many years but that just doesn’t seem like something they would do so if Mayo is going to be the guy then give him a chance to be the guy. I understand that there is a risk that if you trade Mountcastle that Mayo might end up being a huge bust but the good news is that Samuel Basallo is right behind him in the system and he can play first base, and also you still have Ryan O’Hearn and also Heston Kjerstad can play first base so it is time to stop being ruled by fear and either commit to Coby Mayo or use his top prospect status (that will not last forever) to bring in some much needed pitching reinforcements.