In an offseason defined by inaction the Orioles have been among the most active teams in all of baseball. They’ve made splash moves both in free agency and in the trade market, however despite everything they’ve done the work is not finished.
Who will the Orioles get to round out their rotation?
This question is a little bit scary to ask because as an Orioles fan it feels inevitable that the answer will be nobody or if it is somebody it would be somebody incredibly underwhelming like Tyler Anderson or Jon Gray.
But I am going to be bold and ask it anyway, because more than any other year in recent history the Orioles are acting with urgency and direction.
They didn’t try to haggle Pete Alonso down to the very best value deal they could get him on, they met with him, made an aggressive offer and got him signed early. With the Shane Baz and the Taylor Ward trades the reporting indicates that in both cases the Orioles approached the Angels and the Rays with aggressive trade offers that the teams felt they had to take.
You can argue if those moves were the best use of the Orioles’ resources but the urgency and aggression is indisputable. It wouldn’t make any sense to push so many chips in on win now players and then go into the 2026 seasons with the biggest hole on the roster unaddressed and a significantly lower payroll than the year prior.
I understand being skeptical because this front office has disappointed fans before but the moves the Orioles have made so far this offseason make me feel like when it comes to getting a top of the rotation starter the question is “who” and not “if”.
So who then?
In October I made multiple tier lists of free agency and trade targets each featuring about 20 pitchers. The reason those lists were so long was because the Orioles needed help at the top, middle, and back of the rotation, with the Baz and Eflin acquisitions it appears the middle/back of the rotation has been reinforced leaving only the top of the rotation as an area of concern.
So at this point in the offseason there’s really only a handful of available starting pitchers that would actually be an upgrade to the Orioles rotation.
Free Agents
At this point there’s only 2 free agents the Orioles should be interested in: Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez.
Framber Valdez
The O’s have been very consistently linked as a possible landing spot for Framber all offseason. In part because the baseball fit is practically perfect, the Orioles need what Framber provides and they have money to spend. It’s also in part because the Orioles front office has an existing relationship with Framber from their shared time with the Astros.
So why isn’t this done?
If I had to guess I’d say it’s a question of years.
We haven’t gotten an official word on what Valdez is asking for but Dylan Cease signed for 7 years 210 million and Framber Valdez has no reason to think that Dylan Cease deserves more years and dollars than he’s going to get.
Based on the reporting the O’s are primarily competing with the Mets for Framber Valdez although the Cubs and Giants have also been mentioned as being interested and having met with Valdez.
As long as a team with pockets as deep as the Mets are interested in Valdez his asking price is going to remain very high. I’ll be interested to see how far Valdez is willing to take this free agency stand off. He is 32 years old, so playing the short term high AAV deal with an opt out after year 1 is not as interesting to him as it is to other free agents, he needs to cash out this offseason.
Meanwhile the two teams most interested in him are both run by Jeff Luhnow disciples that view long term contracts for pitchers very similarly. They don’t like them and they both know the other guy doesn’t like them. The Giants have volunteered that they’re not interested in signing a long term starting pitcher and the Cubs are run as if the owner is scared that they’ll have to board up Wrigley Field if they go in the red for a month. So I just don’t see how Valdez is going to get the 6-7 year deal that he’s looking for. Eventually he’s going to have to come down to the 4-5 year range where teams will feel more comfortable.
But can the Orioles afford to wait for Valdez to come down to reality? If the O’s hold off on all other pitching moves in pursuit of Valdez and while they’re waiting Suarez, Peralta and Gore all land with other teams and then they lose the Valdez bidding war to the Mets on February 10th that would leave them in a nearly identical situation to last year.
Last thing I’ll comment on is the character concerns which I think are pretty overblown. As far as the rumors the Astros have leaked out about how difficult he is, what I’ll say about that is that if he was so bad they could have traded him at any point in the past 7 years and gotten a massive haul in return and they didn’t which leads me to believe that it wasn’t SO bad.
With the crossing up his own catcher thing, that was really bad and really weird and there’s no excuse for it. I would equate it to Myles Garrett hitting Mason Rudolph in the head with his own helmet. That was weird and bad and he’s good enough that we’ll probably let this go at the end of the day.
Ranger Suarez
Ranger Suarez is an odd case because he would come in and immediately be the Orioles best or second best pitcher, so the O’s are in no position to turn their nose up at him. However a 30 year old pitcher who has never pitched a full season, struggles with back issues and whose average fastball velo has gone from 93.4 in 2023 to 91.3 in 2025 is really scary.
Especially since yesterday we got the report that he’s asking for a 7 year contract. If he’s throwing 91 now what’s that going to look like in 7 years? 86? 87? I kid a little bit but seriously at a certain point no amount of craft can cover for not being able to throw the ball past people. Go to Baseball Savant, sort pitchers by average fastball velo low to high and see how far you have to scroll to find a good starting pitcher that isn’t Ranger Suarez. Most pitchers that don’t throw hard do not succeed.
If Ranger was an iron man I could overlook the soft-tossing but having velo concerns and health concerns makes him an unsettling free agency target. That being said I have harped on the need to take advantage of the next three years of Gunnar Henderson being under team control and so if they signed Ranger to a 5-6 contract with the mentality being he’ll be really good for the next 3 seasons and then we can try to salary dump him later then I’d be good with that.
As far as the competition for Suarez it seems like once again the Orioles and the Mets are the 2 teams most interested with the Cubs hovering around. All the teams involved are likely balking at the ask for a 7 year contract and just like with Framber they are waiting for Suarez to come back to reality.
Unlike with Framber, Suarez is young enough that he and agent Scott Boras could work out a Blake Snell type deal where he gets a good AAV on a short term deal with an opt out after year one and can test free agency next year after proving to be more durable and showing the the Velo is not in an all out free fall. If that’s what they choose to pursue then his market opens back up to more teams and possibly a reunion with the Phillies.
If I’m going to stand up for Framber it feels only fair that I also mention that when it comes to Suarez you literally only hear good things in regards to his leadership and clubhouse presence. So if the O’s are weighing their options and decide they like Suarez more because they think the makeup is a fit then I would understand that.
Trade Candidates
With the remaining top of the rotation free agents holding out for franchise altering contracts the idea of filling the Orioles hole in the top of the rotation with a trade becomes more and more appealing. Unfortunately the teams holding these players also know how appealing they are so they’re asking for farm system altering packages. As it is there are only a handful of players I would be willing to pay a steep price for.
Freddy Peralta
Peralta was by far the biggest oversight on my trade target tiers. When I made them the Brewers were still in the playoffs and with Peralta under contract for just 8 million dollars in 2026 I figured there was no way they’d want to trade him. I forgot that the Brewers are the Brewers. Never forget that the Brewers are the Brewers.
I have mostly avoided stats on this blog because I already wrote about all these pitchers stats and they haven’t changed so it’s not that interesting to me to just rewrite it BUT I have not yet written about Freddy Peralta so real quick here is what I like about him.
Since he became a starter in 2021 Peralta has been remarkably consistent. Since 2021 he has averaged 27 starts per season at a 3.30 ERA, a 3.65 FIP and a K/9 of 10.9. Over the past 3 seasons he’s reached 30 starts every single year and averaged 172 innings pitched.
In an Orioles rotation with a lot of interesting and talented arms but only 1 pitcher with a track record of durability, that kind of metronomeesque production would be extremely valuable.
Besides just showing up for work everyday Peralta has really good pitches. Stuff+ rates him as having 3 well above average pitches. For a 4 pitch pitcher that’s great. The one pitch that stuff+ hates, the changeup, he locates really well which brings up the overall effectiveness so that by pitching+ all 4 of his pitches register as above average.
When it comes to these + metrics it’s not as simple as who’s got the highest number that’s the best pitcher but when you watch Peralta the eye test matches what the stats are telling you.
So if he’s so great then why haven’t the Orioles offered the farm for him?
The number 1 cause for pause is that he’s in the last year of his contract so he’d be a pure rental. That’s not a reason to cross him off the list and the Orioles have had success trading for starting pitching rentals before but it does temper what you might be willing to put in a trade offer.
When Peralta was first rumored to be available a lot of people jumped to comparisons with the Corbin Burnes trade which to my eye was a nice win win for both sides even if the Burnes eventually left the O’s in free agency. However with so few good options on the free agent market and so many teams interested in improving their rotation the Brewers have the opportunity to really drive the price up and come away with a king’s ransom in return for Peralta. So what was enough for Burnes might not be enough for Peralta.
The other issue with Peralta is the fact that he’s only owed 8 million dollars next season makes him an enticing target for teams that are ruled out on some of the more expensive free agents by tax reasons. There was a report today that the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, and Red Sox are all interested in Peralta in addition to the Mets and Orioles who are interested in everyone. That’s a lot of competition to drive up the price. Not to mention that the Brewers would be well within reason to just say you know who could use a top of the rotation starting pitcher at just 8 million dollars? The Brewers. And just keep him. In fact that might be the most likely outcome.
As far as what the Orioles could offer for Peralta a lot of trade packages I have seen online or even come up with in my mind start with Coby Mayo and Cade Povich which is kind of a classic Yankee fan brain mock trade. “I would like your best pitcher and in return you may have 2 players that I never want to see take the field for my team again.” So even though I think those 2 players do have value I could see why the Brewers might say no thank you.
I saw on Just Baseball they mocked Mayo and Trey Gibson to the Brewers for Peralta which felt like an overpay to me which probably means that it’s a fair deal. I don’t really want to trade Gibson because he’s shown so much potential in the last year shooting through the system and he’s knocking on the door of a debut sometime in 2026 and is it too much to ask that the Orioles get to have a good pitcher go through their system start to finish and actually stay with the team? That’s probably me being too emotional.
If it is an overpay maybe you could get the Brewers to throw in a reliever or a prospect to balance it out or maybe an overpay is just what it takes to jar Peralta loose from Milwaukee. If they traded Mayo and Gibson for Peralta and then he walked like Burnes that would sting quite a bit. If they traded for him and then were able to extend him before the season started I could see myself forgetting all about Trey Gibson.
The Twins guys
I might keep this part short because the Twins more than any other bad team holding onto pitchers that teams are interested in trading for have signaled that they are not interested in trading either Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez.
All I’ll say about that is that everyone has a price and if you put enough on the table that they feel they have to take the deal they’ll take the deal. The Twins are not even close to competing for a playoff spot, when you send them a trade offer competing in the near term shouldn’t even be part of their equation if you put enough future value on the table I don’t see how they say no unless ownership has told them they’re not allowed to make the team any worse.
Assuming it’s even possible to get either of these guys they would be ideal fits that I would be willing to make a genuinely stupid trade offer for. Both of them are 29, Ryan would be cheaper but he’s under control for just 2 years compared to Lopez’s 3. My preference would be Ryan but I would value them very similarly.
Lopez’s 3 years deal is kind of perfect because it would end right when Gunnar Henderson becomes a free agent. Maybe I’m delusional but I think the Orioles have a shot at retaining Gunnar and while signing someone like Framber to a 5 year 150 million dollar deal doesn’t rule them out of keeping Gunnar it would make it more complicated because at that point you’d be looking at 31 annually for Pete, 30 for Framber and likely 40 for Gunnar so in 2029 you’re looking at 100+ million for 3 players. Not impossible but very aggressive.
If the move instead is a trade for Pablo Lopez he comes off the books just in time for Gunnar to get his big contract. It just fits quite nicely.
Again the Twins have said they’re not trading these guys and if they mean that then they mean that but these are two guys who are worth making an offer that might make a team that meant it not mean it anymore. Just food for thought.
Mackenzie Gore
I ranked Gore in the top tier of my trade targets list but now that the Orioles have acquired Shane Baz some of my interest in Gore has waned. The reason I had Gore so high is because I view him as someone who had a lot of prospect pedigree and who has shown flashes of dominance but hasn’t been able to put it all together and that if the O’s were to trade for him they had a chance to get 2 of his best years for a really cheap price moneywise.
I still view him as someone whose best years are ahead of him and if we started the offseason from scratch and Mike Elias emailed me and said I can only trade for 1 of Gore or Baz I would have told him to go for Gore. But now that Baz is filling the role of former top prospect who needs to put it all together even if I think Gore is better than him it feels like the O’s are at their limit of talented guys who hopefully will take a step forward and are more in need to dependable guys who have demonstrated the ability to pitch well for an entire season.
So that’s why the Baz trade changed how I value Gore. Pre-Baz if you had asked be between Gore and Peralta I would have picked Gore for the upside and the extra year of control now that they have Baz I would pick Peralta for the dependability and consistency. Hopefully that makes sense, maybe the lesson there is that I should have always valued Peralta higher
I’m not even saying that I wouldn’t trade for Gore though. He’s a young pitcher with multiple years of control who is better than multiple pitchers slotted to be in the Orioles rotation so he’d still be a great get, I’m just saying he slid down my board a bit.
The good thing that Gore has going for him is that he is much more available than Peralta or either of the Twins guys. The Nats new front office is coming in and looking to jump start their rebuild and Gore is probably their best piece that they could hope to flip into their next young core. So while The Brewers and Twins are playing down the possibility of a trade the Nats seem pretty open to business even if they’re still asking a high price.
If the other trade targets I’ve mentioned so far aren’t actually available and we’re just getting run around out here for the sake of content then my initial take stands. Go for Gore.
As far as the price the Nationals are supposedly expecting to have to be blown away by a trade package for them to trade Gore. I don’t think the Orioles have a top prospect they’d be willing to trade who would move the needle by themselves so a Gore package might have to look similar to what they offered for Baz.
That would be a lot of prospect to give up for 2 pitchers but as I mentioned in the Baz blog they brought in double digit prospects at the deadline and also had way more draft picks than anyone else in the last draft so they’re up on prospects right. Not to mention they’re looking at a potential bloodbath in the Rule V draft if they don’t move some guys so they can afford to let loose a little bit.
As far as what the Nats will want they are a bit further off from contending so I’d maybe start my initial offer with some prospects who are a ways away. Does Ike Irish and Boston Bateman as the core get the conversation started?
The Marlins guys
It doesn’t seem like the O’s and the Marlins are lined up to do a deal this offseason. There was a report that the O’s are out on Edward Cabrera and there doesn’t appear to be any buzz around a trade for Sandy Alcantara to any team.
Of those two I’d prefer Sandy, with him you’re looking at a two year deal at a very affordable number. The numbers weren’t great last year and the peripherals don’t exactly let him off the hook but the velo was back up to pre TJ levels and stuff+ still rates his arsenal as being well above average the main issue compared to his past seasons was an overall tick down in command which is sometimes the last thing to come back when you’ve had major surgery so I’d feel pretty good about his chances of having a bounceback season.
But again they don’t seem interested in moving him at all.
They do seem interested in moving Cabrera but like I already mentioned the O’s are reportedly out on him after getting Baz. Which I think is fine, in October I put them on the exact same tier and I don’t think you want to build your entire rotation out of guys with good stuff but question marks in other areas.
I will say that if guys start coming off the board and it’s Valdez to the Mets and Suarez back to Phillie and the Brewers and Twins decide they aren’t open for business I don’t think it would be the worst idea to get back into the Cabrera sweepstakes. If the offseason ended and the Orioles big pitching acquisitions were Baz and Cabrera it would be disappointing overall but it would be better than Baz and nobody.
Other than that this doesn’t seem like a likely direction.
Nick Pivetta
I wrote and deleted this paragraph once already because I was like am I really going to include Nick Pivetta in the blog. After some deliberation I decided to include Mr Pivetta because he balled out last year. Pivetta is difficult to evaluate and he has a weird contract so let’s get into it.
Pivetta has had years where his stuff has graded out really well and the result were middling. In his last 4 seasons with the Red Sox were he was primarily a starter he had an ERA of 4.33 with a 4.20 FIP and a 1.24 WHIP. All of those numbers are extremely mid. You pair those numbers with an average of 26 starts and 155 innings per season then that has some value but there’s nothing there that says top of the rotation arm except his Stuff+ numbers in those seasons were quite good.
Jump to last year in San Diego this was his worst year ever by Stuff+ but besides that the numbers were really good. 2.87 ERA, 3.49 FIP and 0.985 WHIP. Those are ace numbers. So who is he? Is he good? Is he mid? It’s genuinely quite hard to say.
For most of his career in Boston I would not have been interested in his services but after last year how can you look at what he did and turn your nose up especially when pitching is a major need? Is that a stupid way of thinking about it? Should I ignore last season? It’s very confusing.
Then you get to his contract it’s essentially a 1 year deal but with the downside that if he blows out his arm at the end of the season or just falls off a cliff which would not be unheard of for a 33 year old pitcher then he’ll be opting in to at least 1 if not 2 pretty expensive option years. I don’t love that.
So as far as my interest in acquiring him I would rate it similar to Edward Cabrera where I’m not very interested but if things start to spiral Pivetta is a worthy backup plan.
As far as what I’d be willing to give up for Pivetta considering it would be just a one year deal if he’s good and three year albatross if he stinks it wouldn’t be much. The Padres are looking to compete right now and are under some intense financial constraints which is part of why Pivetta is available in the first place.
Could it be as simple as the Orioles take Pivetta and his whole contract and they send back Tyler O’Neill but they pay down half his remaining deal. That would set the Padres up with any everyday outfielder/DH for the next two seasons at 8 million AAV. Right now they are looking at Gavin Sheets as the everyday DH and the possibility of playing the utilty infielder they just got for pennies from the KBO in the outfield, O’Neill is better than that right? Right? IDK.
Some other options
I’m just going to throw some team out there that have been mentioned in trade rumors even if the mention was them saying they’re not trading their guys. I don’t think any of these pitchers are available so I don’t want spend too much time talking about it BUT sometimes teams move in silence and surprise you so here are some fun maybe possible surprises.
The Reds
The Reds are an interesting team. They’ve got a great rotation and I don’t know if there’s a single position player on their roster that would start for Baltimore outside of Elly De La Cruz (And he’d have to move of short to do so) If they’re interested in some offense the Orioles could offer real offensive players in exchange for Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo depending on who they were willing to give up.
The Royals
Similar to the Reds, the Royals are severely lacking in offense. As of right now Fangraphs projects them to have 3 players reach 2 WAR. It’s really Bobby Witt, Maikel Garcia, Vinney P and pray. They could, if they wanted to, which so far they have said they don’t want to, trade Cole Ragans for some help in the lineup and still have a decent rotation to get by with.
The Pirates
The Pirates already leveraged some of their surplus of starting pitching to get Brandon Lowe so maybe they’re done but they have enough starting pitching depth they could do another trade like that whether it’s some of their “lower level” prospects like Hunter Barco or Thomas Harrington or if they wanted to get freaky and trade Jared Jones or Bubba Chandler. It seems like their done at least with trade so I wouldn’t hold my breath but it’s out there.
The Dishwasher 
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