As hard as it is to admit just 2 weeks into the season it appears I may have been wrong about a few things. Now when it comes to reacting to the first couple weeks of the NBA season you don’t have to believe everything that you see. Just last year the Nuggets and Kings both got off to slow starts before becoming 2 of the best regular season teams in the league, 2 seasons ago the Wizards were a top seed after 10 games and then went on to be one of the worst teams in the league (That didn’t stop Colin Cowherd from taking a victory lap that every team Westbrook leaves gets better when the Wizards were a top seed and then never revisiting that take once they went in the toilet but who’s keeping track it certainly didn’t bother me enough to remember for years and write about it now) and who could forget the Timberwolves tweeting this a few games into a season where they would go onto get the #1 pick:
The Wolves were in fact bad that season.
So I think that it is too early to take a victory lap on my best take and too early to say that I was completely wrong so I’ll be bucketing my bad takes into two different types:
- Might be wrong wish I could take it back
- Looks wrong but I’m holding out on admitting it
I’ll also do a quick recap of the takes that I am most proud of so far.
Might Be Wrong – Wish I Could Take It Back
I had the Sixers as a 7 seed winning only 44 games
This take looks like an early miss, to be fair my thought process was that the James Harden trade battle would drag out much longer into the season and create some pretty rancid vibes for the Sixers so the quick trigger on that trade changed the math but the worst part of that take was that I said that Tyrese Maxey as your second best player was not good enough to win most nights and it looks like he’s made a massive leap and that he is in fact good enough to be the second best player on a good team. I feel dumb for underrating him so much. I also barely mentioned Nick Nurse in my Sixers prediction and so far it looks like he is a massive upgrade over Doc Rivers and that is going to help the Sixers win a bunch of games. If I could take it back I would say that the Sixers are going to be a top 3 seed in the East with over 50 wins. It is not out of the question that over the course of a long season they could got through a cold stretch and end up with just a little over 44 wins and wouldn’t be far off on that prediction but I’m ready to take the L on this one.
I had the Golden State Warriors as the 6 seed winning just 45 games
I had the Warriors in the clump of teams that would be somewhat coasting through the regular season because they’re older and are confident that they can pull off an upset in the first round like they did last year and right off the bat they are obviously going to be a much better regular season team than the Lakers and Suns who I had above them in the standings. I think I underrated how much they were impacted by the bad the team chemistry last year (I tend to think that stuff like players getting along is a little overrated because it is easier for the media to gossip about who’s beefin than talk about guys not navigating screens on defense but the Warriors seem to be a clear case of guys not getting along and it impacting their performance on the court) and I also over thought how difficult adding Chris Paul to this team would be which is dumb because Paul is a basketball genius and has molded himself to fit onto various teams.
Now they are not entirely out of the woods because they are an old team and there is something very weird going on with Andrew Wiggins but if I could take it back I would predict them to be a top 3 seed in the west and win over 50 games.
I had the Grizzlies as a .500 team in the play in
I almost put this one in the not ready to give up on because my original prediction was that they would be below .500 when they got Ja back and then fight and claw their way back into the play in but it looks like they are much worse than I thought and even when Ja comes back I think they will be too far out of the playoffs to get into the play in tournament in a west where there are 11 other teams who think they should be in the playoffs. Their center rotation is just too weak and it is exposing JJJ’s weaknesses as a defender. I think when Ja comes back they will see if they can get off to a fast start if the Marcus Smart pairing works very well and get back into it but I think they will have to face the reality of their situation and punt on the season.
Davion Mitchell as 6th man of the year
I don’t feel terrible about this because 6th man is such a crapshoot but as I look at my predictions it kind of feels like what was I thinking with that one he’s not even the best 6th man on his team.
James Harden will make the Clippers a top seed in the West
This wasn’t in my prediction blogs but in my trade reaction blog I said Harden would improve my projected win total for the Clippers by 10 wins and it looks like even if he makes them a lot better the growing pains of adding him onto the team may cost the Clippers a bunch of wins. I still think that the Clippers are better for having made that trade but it’s not gelling the way I thought that it would and it looks like a top seed in the west is out of the question. The main reason I thought that it would be such an immediate success was because when Harden joined another star studded roster in Brooklyn he went full playmaker mode and it worked really well immediately but it seems from his quotes that he hated playing like that and he is determined not to get pigeonholed into a playmaker role. Anyway if it turns out to be a disaster for the Clippers it may be the most wrong I’ve ever been about a trade.
Looks Wrong But I am Holding Out On Admitting it
I had the Bucks as a strong 2 seed winning 55 games
Some people are panicking about the Bucks because they’ve been a little underwhelming especially after adding Dame Lillard and they are further down in the standings than people are used to seeing them to start the season. I however feel like the prediction couldn’t be more right since I said that the deciding factor in the Celtics getting the 1 seed over the Bucks would be a slow start for the Bucks and that’s exactly how it is playing out. I also said that they had enough talent to survive if the Adrain Griffin hire proved to be a bad one and that might get put to the test as the early returns on Griffin have not been great with him having a weird conflict with assistant Terry Stotts and then trying out a strange and disastrous defense and also seeming to be avoiding Dame Giannis pick and rolls at all costs on offense. Anyway I have faith that at the end of the season the Bucks will be back at the top of the east standings.
I had the Pacers as a .500 team and they look like one of the best teams in the east
It’s true the Pacers have been exciting so far this year and after a few weeks are above the Bucks in the standings. However they are terrible on defense and are getting by on playing at an incredibly high pace like last year’s Kings but I think that they have less talent than last year’s Kings and over the course of the season I think that we will see them fade back to near .500. It’s definitely possible they are better than a .500 team but I don’t see them competing for a top seed in the east late in the season.
I had the Lakers and Suns winning 47 and 49 games
Both of these teams currently have losing records and are already dealing with injury concerns from their best players and as it sits they would be in the play-in. However I think that both of these teams will be alright in the end. Lebron and KD both look really good despite their age which is a great sign. The Suns will get Devin Booker back eventually and Beal has looked good so far since coming back from his injury and so I expect them to get on a roll. Right now Lebron is having a to do a lot for the Lakers but I think their big jump will come when they make their inevitable all in trade and get rid of D-Lo and the other bad role players they signed for some good role players. If I had to pick one that I am more concerned about it would be the Lakers who I think are one Lebron injury away from being one of the worst teams in the league which is of course the story of Lebron Jame’s career.
I had the Rockets as the 12 seed and they are currently in the playoff picture
I don’t want to spend too much time on this one but I still think the Rockets will finish outside of the play in. They’ve got some tremendous shooting performances and have benefited from a soft schedule getting to play the Kings twice without Fox and the Lakers without AD. I do think that this somewhat fast start will keep them in the playoff hunt longer into the season than most people would have thought so that will be fun for the Rockets and their fans and Alperen Sengun looks great so far so there is plenty to be happy about in Houston even if this season will end up being just a small step in the right direction.
Some of my favorite takes that I’ll dare to take an early victory lap on
I had the Timberwolves and Hawks both as top 3 seeds in their conferences (and Quin Snyder for Coach of the Year)
Conventional wisdom had both of these teams as fringe play in teams but I dared to put them at the top of their conferences and so far they both look legit. The reason that they are both universally underrated is that their stars (Trae Young, KAT and Gobert) are generally over hated by fans and media but all three of them are very good. Both teams are well constructed with good role players and both teams have good coaches. I expect both of these teams to keep this momentum going. Tied up in this prediction is my Quin Snyder for coach of the year and I think if the Hawks stay at the top of the standings he’ll be a lock so I’m pretty happy with that one.
I am aware that I am doing my own version of “They said the wolves would be bad this year” tweet but there’s no way around it.
I had the Denver Nuggets to have the best record in the NBA and win over 60 games (and Nikola Jokic to win the MVP)
This one feels kind of like a layup but last year they won just 53 games to get the one seed and it seemed like most people were high on the Celtics and Bucks to be better regular season teams. I like the Nuggets to have an all time regular season because Nikola Jokic’s style of play and the players they have around him give them such a high floor on a night to night basis that I think it will be rare for them to blow games to teams that are obviously inferior and against the teams that are good talent match ups they will generally be the younger and hungrier team which is a rare position for the defending champs but it’s true all the most talented teams besides the Celtics are older than the Nuggets. They also have a great home court advantage and I think the combination of playing at altitude and facing a juggernaut like the Nuggets will cause many teams to fold. Also they had a brutal schedule to start the season and came out 8-1. They will be without Jamal Murray for the next month or so hopefully they have the depth to withstand that and still be at the top of the standings when he gets back. Tied to this prediction is my Nikola Jokic wins his 3rd MVP prediction and yesterday they released the first MVP ladder and Jokic is right at the top.
I picked Chet to win Rookie of the Year
Wemby has drawn a lot of headlines and had a fantastic performance in a win against the Suns but he also has put up some stinkers and right now if the voters had to vote on ROY I think Chet would win. Chet has been more consistent and is playing a bigger role on his team and is super important to them winnings since he is their only reliable big man. Wemby’s ugly performances will pile up as the Spurs refuse to play a pure point guard and get him the ball and the Thunder will be the darlings of the NBA as they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and Chet is going to be seen as their second best player.
I also made a bunch of predictions that I think are spot on but are too boring to write about like “The Blazers and the Bulls will be very bad” and “The Celtics will be the best team in the East” so I won’t break my arm patting myself on the back for those.
After this blog I probably won’t revisit my preseason picks until the end of the season so we’ll see how we stand then.
The Dishwasher 
Leave a comment