The thought for this came up as I tried to theorize what the Marlins might want in a trade for Jesus Luzardo and what the Orioles would prefer to give up in a deal for Jesus Luzardo or any other really good pitcher that might become available via trade.
Over the past few seasons as prospects have come up they have come up and replaced guys that were average to below average players and that were obviously not going to be a part of the Orioles future. Robinson Chirinos was not blocking Adley Rutschman and Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo and Adam Frazier were never blocking Gunnar, Westburg or Holliday (although if April Mateo had been sustained he might have cemented himself as a franchise shortstop #NeverforgetAprilJorgeMateo) These players were all brought in as flyers and placeholders to fill in the gaps in the roster until the Orioles prospects could make it through the minor leagues and be the more permanent solution to those gaps in the lineup.
I am writing this assuming that Jackson Holliday is as much of a lock to be a part of the Orioles infield of the future as a prospect who has never played in the Majors can be. I don’t know for sure if he will make the opening day roster but I don’t think that there is anything that the person ahead of him whether that’s Urias or Mateo can do to stop him from coming up and taking his spot so I am going to operate as if he is already on the team.
Anyway so assuming that is the case as you look at the Orioles starting lineup there are no below average, journeymen or bridge year players slated for an everyday starting role and yet there are still several very good prospects on the verge of being called up or that were called up at the end of last season that don’t have a path to playing everyday and the players standing between the Orioles top prospects and their playing time are guys that have played for the Orioles for years and have played well and have been all stars and have hit 30+ home run in a season and won gold gloves so starting this season Mike Elias and his front office will have to make some truly difficult decisions as to whether they will move on from fan favorites or risk trading away some potentially great prospects in favor of keeping a familiar team.
So here are the Orioles top prospects that will likely make the MLB in the next 2 seasons and the positions they play listed chronologically as to when they will be hitting the Major League logjam.
OF: Colton Cowser
OF/1B/DH: Heston Kjerstad
1B/3B: Coby Mayo
2B/OF: Connor Norby
C/1B/DH: Samuel Basallo
What I want to look at is who these guys are competing with for jobs and what is the likelihood that they are future Orioles or future trade chips.
I am going to do this over the course of a few blogs because this was a lot more writing than I thought it was going to be. I’ll start with the guys that have already been called up.
Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad
I have paired these guys together because they both got called up at the end of last season and their presence on the roster puts pressure on the OF/1B/DH group of players.
Cowser came up through the minors playing primarily Centerfield so your mind jumps to the question is he a Cedric Mullins replacement? It’s definitely possible but with the Orioles massive left field his centerfield range could be useful so maybe it’s Hays that he will eventually displace. If the Orioles want to beef up their outfield defense maybe the move is to put Cowser in left and move Hays to right where he can use his cannon arm (which according to baseball savant is by far his best asset) more frequently. Doing so would push Santander to a more permanent DH role which is where the trouble with Kjerstad comes in.
Kjerstad has come up through the minors as a right fielder/ first base / DH. He’s young so I don’t want to put a limit on what he can be defensively but it seems like he fits the profile of the bigger, slower, power hitting corner outfielder who isn’t necessarily known for his defense so based on that profile his natural spot seems to be where Santander is in right field and in a perfect world they could just take turns playing right field and DHing and exist in perfect harmony but Cowser coming in makes it so those reps in right field are more limited and Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn are currently working on a first base/DH split. So with Cowser and Kjerstad both fighting for playing time there are 7 guys fighting for 5 OF/DH/1B spots.
It’s a tough spot because the 5 established major leaguers are all good players. If the Orioles were a team with low expectation then it would be obvious to play the kids to prioritize their development and roll the dice on their upside but the O’s won 101 games last year with these 5 guys each playing a major role so you risk taking dependable veteran bats out of the lineup in favor of young guys that are pretty much unproven and I just don’t know how patient you can afford to be when you are competing in the AL East, if you get off to a bad start because you were trying to incorporate 2 prospects that turned out not to be ready that could set you back. However at the same time you don’t want to have a short leash with prospects that are supposed to be the future of your organization and it is normal for guys to struggle when they first come up so it wouldn’t be fair to them if they didn’t get the same runway that Gunnar and Adley got when they got called up.
But sometimes life isn’t fair and I imagine that if these guys make the team that their roles will be to be platoon bats and fill in when someone needs a rest day.
Anyway I am getting too focused on the right now when this is really a question about the long term. Whether it is this year or next year the front office’s vision is that Cowser and Kjerstad will permanently replace 2 of Mullins, Hays, Santander and O’Hearn so the question is which 2 will it be
Who Gets Replaced
Mullins
2023 Stats: G: 116 | AVG: .233 | OBP: .305 | OPS: .721 | wRC+: 99 | HR: 15 | SB: 19
Age: 29
Years left on deal: 2
Why you wouldn’t trade Mullins
Cedric Mullins has been one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball for years now. When a ball is hit into center Orioles pitchers and fans know that if it can be caught Cedric Mullins is going to catch it. Mullins also brings a special ability to leap and rob homeruns as well as regularly lay out to rob extra base hits. Even if Cowser is a great defender himself it would be hard to fill Cedric Mullins’ spikes in centerfield.
When you look at Mullin’s offensive stats there is the one all star 30/30 season that seems to be a bit of an outlier but that year is sandwiched between three seasons where his OPS was .723, .721, and .721 so that feels like very consistent average offensive production at the centerfield position. In his last 3 seasons he has stolen 30, 34 and 19 bases and when you look at the games played last year I think he would have finished with high 20s in stolen bases if he had played his normal amount of games also even thought his top sprint speed has declined over the last few years but I think his veteran knowledge will allow him to make up for that on the bases.
I also want to point out that there are no stats for leadership but Mullins has been a leader on the team for years and I believe his presence in the locker room makes the team better.
Why you might trade Mullins
The reason you would trade Cedric Mullins is because you are concerned that both his speed and his bat are declining and that you would be better off with a young guy in Centerfield rather than signing up to have Cedric in his 30s when he has gotten slower and hit worse as he has gotten into his late 20s.
Cedric Mullins Summary
Mullins has been declining for a few years but is still a good player and if you were to replace his stellar CF defense and dependable .721 OPS bat with a wobbly prospect that struggles then the team would be much worse off. But when you are looking at candidates to be replaced the declining bat and speed could be red flags for the font office. Also his name value as someone that recently had a 30/30 season and has been arguably the face of the Orioles through their rebuild could make him appealing to another team in a trade. However I would lean towards keep Cedric because I think that dependable centerfield defense is extremely valuable and I think some of his “declining” offensive numbers were due to injury and I think he is capable of a bounce back season.
Austin Hays
2023 Stats: G: 144 | AVG: .275 | OBP: .325 | OPS: .769 | wRC+: 112 | HR: 16 | SB: 5
Years left on deal: 2
Age: 28
Why you wouldn’t trade Hays
Austin Hays is coming off the best year of his career that resulted with him starting the All Star game. Defensively Hays is very solid and he has navigated playing in the biggest left field in the MLB very well. Some of the defensive stats don’t love him but he hustles and when a ball is hit in the gap and Hays is closing in on it feels like he’s going to lay out and get it and he also has a great arm.
Offensively Hays hit for a good average last year and tacked on 54 extra base hits. Hays is a streaky hitter so you will frequently see him have hot stretches where he looks like one of the best hitters in baseball the reason he was an all star starter last year was because he was hitting over .300 for the first half of the season.
Why you might trade Hays
My number 1 issue with Hays is that every year he starts hot and then cools off dramatically in the second half of the season. I don’t know if the reason for this is because he is gutting through minor injuries that pile up because of his hard nose style of play or if he just gets tired or if it’s a mental block but we have multiple years of evidence of this phenomenon. If you get first half Hays for the entire season you’d be golden but even if he starts hot again this year it will feel like we are just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Also with the batting last year Hays struck out and swung and missed much more than he had in previous years and his xBA was closer to .240 than the .275 mark that his actual average ended up at. Also his barrel rate and hard hit % are both very middle of the road and he’s never had a season where either of those numbers jumped off the page. I would guess that what the Orioles got from Hays last year is pretty close to his ceiling.
Austin Hays Summary
Hays has great stretches and bad stretches and those stretches average out to make him a good player. The fact that he made the All Star team last year gives him some name value recognition that could make him valuable in a trade. He is 28 and he does not appear to be declining if anything he’s getting healthier every year so in some ways trade or keep it feels like there is no wrong answer for O’s when it comes to Hays.
Anthony Santander
2023 Stats: G: 153 | AVG: .257 | OBP: .325 | OPS: .797 | wRC+: 119 | HR: 28 | SB: 5
Years left on deal: 1
Age: 29
Why you wouldn’t trade Anthony Santander
Santander also had his best full season in 2023. He has been the one of the best hitters in the lineup for years and he now has back to back seasons with 150+ games played and 28+ home runs. In 2023 he traded off a little homerun power and in return saw his average go up from .240 to .257 and increased his doubles from 24 to 41. At the plate he is getting better each year and his production feels very sustainable.
Why you might trade Anthony Santander
He is in the last year of his deal so in a world where everyone he is competing with for at bats has multiple years left the decision to extend Santander or let him walk will come up before anyone else so if it’s close between him and Hays and him and O’Hearn the fact that he is first up may be the factor that ends up pushing him out the door.
The other reason why he might be the one to get replaced is because it feels like in the coming years he will likely move into a mostly DH role and that and as far as bang for your buck I think the front office could be hesitant to extend a guy who could become a full time DH in the next couple years.
Anthony Santander Summary
I don’t have that much to say about Anthony Santander, I have no real complaints about his offense but I do think you have to be realistic about his defense and his future role with the team. With Hays and Mullins the reasons for concern are related to their production feeling like it could be improved upon by a prospect like Kjerstad or Cowser whereas with Santander it feels more a matter of will the front office want to extend a DH THIS year and even though Santander is a much better hitter than those other outfielders the fact that his deal is up first and his position is less valuable might be the reason he ends up playing somewhere else next year.
Ryan O’Hearn
2023 Stats: G: 112 | AVG: .289 | OBP: .322 | OPS: .801 | wRC+: 118 | HR: 14 | SB: 5
Years left on deal: 2
Age: 30
Why you wouldn’t trade Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearns breakout season was one of the most unexpected fun stories of the 2023 season. He went from a low average low power designated pinch hitter on one of the worst teams in the league to one of the best hitters in the league getting regular playing time for the best team in the American League. He’s a primarily first base/ DH but he did dabble in some corner outfield where he was pretty bad. But defense is not why you want Ryan O’Hearn on your team, you want Ryan O’Hearn on your team because he hits the piss out of the ball. Whatever tweak the Orioles hitting coaches made to O’Hearn’s swing unlocked the his potential (which if you look at his percentile numbers over the year he was always good at barreling the ball so you can maybe see what the front office saw when they acquired him) and he started hitting it hard and hitting it often.
As far why the Orioles wouldn’t trade him it is possible that they might find it hard to say goodbye to one of their greatest success stories as far as talent development and if he continues to hit at this level having that club option on him next year at 7.5 Million would be a steal. It’s kind of like when you draft a guy in the last round of your fantasy draft and he has an incredible first few weeks of the season and it would maybe be smart to trade him while he is at the height of his value but a part of you doesn’t want to because you feel so smart for having drafted him and you don’t want to “sell high” and then find out you didn’t sell high you actually sold low.
Why you might trade Ryan O’Hearn
I think out of everyone I’ve listed so far O’Hearn seems like a prime candidate to try to sell high on. He’s coming off the best year of his career, he is in his 30s and as a left handed 1B/DH he is exactly what Heston Kjerstad is supposed to be. So even if O’Hearn holds onto his spot this entire season this time next year you will be looking at a 31 year old 1B/DH on an expiring deal that is effectively blocking Kjerstad, Mayo and eventually possibly Basallo. So I don’t see the Orioles picking O’Hearn over that crop of top prospects.
Ryan O’Hearn Summary
O’Hearn might be the prime candidate to be replaced but I wouldn’t say that it is guaranteed to be him. If around the trade deadline teams are much more interested in Santander and Mountcastle then maybe the Orioles cash in one of them and keep O’Hearn for the next few years while they plan to make someone like Coby Mayo or Samuel Bassallo the heir to first base.
Ryan Mountcastle
2023 Stats: G: 115 | AVG: .270 | OBP: .328 | OPS: .779 | wRC+: 114 | HR: 18 | SB: 3
Years left on deal: 3
Age: 27
Why you wouldn’t trade Mountcastle
Realistically I think Mountcastle is the least likely to be traded to make room for Kjerstad or Cowser but since he is the clogged position group I felt I should include him. Mountcastle has been a reliable power bat in the middle of the Orioles lineup as they have gone from basement dwellers to division champs. Last year especially after he recovered from vertigo he came back with a vengeance and was hitting everything and hitting everything hard. After a 2022 season where he was statistically the unluckiest hitter in the league last year the hard hit balls started falling for him.
His walk rate and K rate are still below league average but have improved every year that he has been in the league. If Mountcastle can put together a full season that looks like his second half of 2023 he would be one of the best hitters in the league.
Why you might trade Ryan Mountcastle
When it comes to first basemen most of your value comes from your hitting and when you look around the league a lot of teams absolute best hitter is their everyday 1B/DH and as good as Mountcastle has been over the past few years he isn’t on the level of the best first basemen in the league. As the season gears up and different publications makes top 10 lists at each position Mountcastle will left off most of those lists and you have to wonder if the Orioles are serious about being one of the best teams in the league will they look to upgrade at first base and do they believe that someone like Kjerstad or Mayo or Basallo could be that top end first base talent.
Ryan Mountcastle summary
I know I just mentioned that Mountcastle is considered by most to not be a top 10 first baseman but when I watch Mountcastle at the plate and I look at his advanced stats I feel like it is within him to have another season where he puts it together and he has and OBP in the .330 aread and he hits 30+ home runs and I think if he does something like that he can successfully defend his spot at first base which I think would be good for the team because besides his actual play I think Mounty is a beloved guy in the club house and that maybe more than anyone on the list of possible trade candidates I think shipping him out would be a big blow to morale.
What if it’s nobody
Right now it feels like it’s a crowded logjam but all it would take is one trade and one injury for it to feel like the Orioles would suddenly be at a talent deficit. For example if you traded Hays to make room for Cowser and then Cedric Mullins gets hurt very suddenly you’d have one of the worst defensive outfields in the league which is hardly a recipe for success.
So is it possible that the front office just lets this crowded situation be and enjoy the security of having lots of depth?
I think in the short term this what we will most likely see with Cowser and Hays split time/ platoon in left and Kjerstad split time/ platoon with Mountcastle at 1B/DH so the lineup would look something like this:
Vs Righties
LF: Cowser
CF: Mullins
RF: Kjerstad
DH: Santander
1B: O’Hearn
Vs Lefties
LF: Hays
CF: Mullins
RF: Santander
DH: Kjerstad
1B: Mountcastle
Obviously there would be rest days for Mullins and Santander that would allow the guys platooning to get in the lineup more often.
What I would do if I was Elias
If I was Elias the 2 guys I would move on from first to make room for Cowser and Kjerstad would be Ryan O’Hearn and Austin Hays.
With O’Hearn I say easy come easy go if we can get something good for a guy we basically got for nothing and open up playing time for one of our top prospects that would be a big win win for the O’s and with Hays I just think out of everyone in this logjam he has the lowest ceiling offensively and while his defense in left is very good I don’t think Cowser is necessarily a downgrade defensively so losing Hay’s defense might not hurt too bad and you get the bonus of big upside swing on Cowser’s offense.
Now if you were to move Santander instead of Hays you would have the opportunity to have Cowser, Mullins and Hays in the outfield together which I think has the potential to be the best defensive Orioles outfield since Adam Jones and Nick Markakis were paired up. But at the end of the day offense is everything so I would move Hays before Santander
What I think will actually happen
I think almost purely because of when his contract is up that Santander will be the guy that the Orioles front office will be dangling in trades this trade deadline and I think that because Santander is a free agent this year the trade would be to another contender in exchange for prospects. In other words it would be a deal that would be wildly unpopular with the fans. Even if they don’t trade him I wouldn’t be surpised if they just let Santander walk after this year. I also think that they view O’Hearn as the more expendable of the 2 first basemen so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flipped at the deadline for some bullpen help.
Anyway here is what I think the starting OF/1B/DH should look like this time next year
LF: Colton Cowser
CF: Cedric Mullins
RF: Heston Kjerstad
DH: Anthony Santaner (On a new deal)
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
Now a lot of what I said so far has been assuming that Cowser and Kjerstad are actually good enough to force the Orioles to move on from these good players.
Last season Cowser came up in the final months of the season and got 61 bats and was not particularly impressive in that showing. He slashed .115/.286/.148 so he didn’t hit much and when he did hit he wasn’t hitting it hard. As of right now I am not overly concerned about Cowser’s struggles in his brief stint in the Majors last year, there are plenty of stories of now great players struggling in their first run at the big leagues but for every story of a hall of famer bouncing back from a slow start there are 100 more about top prospects who came up and struggled and it turned out the reason they struggled is because they weren’t as good people thought they were.
Kjerstad got even fewer at bats so it is even harder to pass judgment based on such a small sample size.
I do feel comfortable assuming that at least one of them will go on to be a very good Major League player and I still think there is a pretty good chance that they both become at least starters of the Orioles team of the future, hence why I wrote this long rambly blog about it.
Since both of these guys got called up last year I hope they both get to start the year with the team and get started on their path to securing a spot as part of the Orioles core of the future. But if they are both not ready then it is good to know the Orioles can just keep on chugging with their current OF/DH/1B squad for the next few years until more prospects make their way through the pipeline.
The Dishwasher 
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