If you thought finding room in the outfield for Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad was difficult then get ready for the even bigger challenge of finding room for Coby Mayo and Connor Norby in the infield.
The reason that it is so much more difficult to find spots for Mayo and Norby is because for Coswer and Kjerstad in the outfield they are blocked by veteran guys who are nearing the ends of their contracts and closing in on 30 so while it is hard to think of replacing Austin Hays or Anthony Santander at least timeline wise it makes sense. In the infield the guys that Mayo and Norby are blocked by are Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg and 2 of those guys are younger than Connor Norby.
It’s nice to have backup prospects in case Westburg or Henderson get injured or get amnesia and forget how to play ball but we can’t expect Mayo and Norby to patiently hang around in the minor leagues until they’re in their late 20s. In fact both of these guys have moved through the minors over the past few years and are due to get called up to the majors this year so how do the Orioles find room for them?
Where can Mayo and Norby play?
Coby Mayo has come up through the minors primarily as a third baseman. So that is a position where he would be competing with Henderson and Westburg which is a tough spot but last year he also started getting starts at first base, a position where he would primarily be competing with Ryan Mountcastle.
Connor Norby has come up through the minors primarily as a second baseman which pits him with Westburg and Holiday, however similar to how last year the O’s started getting Mayo reps at first last year the O’s started getting Norby reps in the outfield and played the most outfield of his career in 2023 so technically he is also a name you can start about in the crowded outfield logjam.
Right off the bat there are 2 spots that are just straight up not available. Gunnar Henderson is an absolute lock for either shortstop or third base and even though Jackson Holiday hasn’t played in the majors and proven himself like Gunnar has, as the #1 prospect and former #1 overall pick who has rocketed up through the minors he is also pretty much a lock to be a part of the infield of the future at either shortstop or second base.
So that leaves Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle as the 2 guys that have to defend their spots against the up and comers.
Ryan Mountcastle
2023 Stats: G: 115 | AVG: .270 | OBP: .328 | OPS: .779 | wRC+: 114 | HR: 18 | SB: 3
Years left on deal: 3
I mentioned Ryan Mountcastle in the last blog mostly as a formality because I didn’t think he was really in danger of being moved to make room for Cowser or Kjerstad but I do think that there could be some real momentum this year for the O’s to move on from him to make room for Coby Mayo.
Mayo and Mountcastle both have a pretty similar profile. Mountcastle is 6’4 220 and Mayo is 6’5 230 so they both provide a big target at first. They are both right handed hitters who can hit some of the most jaw dropping homeruns you’ve ever seen. Last year Mountcastle hit a ball over both bullpens in left center at Camden yards which was one of the craziest homers I’ve ever seen (This happened shortly after the news of the Kevin Brown suspension got out and the flight of the homer got cut off on the broadcast because they were scared of seeing #freekevinbrown signs in the stands. John Angelos you will always be a loser) and Mayo has hit homers so powerful that even someone like me who doesn’t spend much time watching minor league highlights saw multiple clips of Mayo balls leaving the stadium.
If you look at Mountcastle’s last season AAA he slashed .312/.344/.527 and hit 25 homers and 35 doubles. Last year Mayo put up .290/.410/.563 and hit 29 home runs and 45 doubles.
As you look at these numbers you can see that besides raw batting average Mayo is the better hitter at least in the minor leagues, but what stands out most to me is the difference in on base percentage. In Mayo’s last season in AAA he walked 93 times compared to Mountcastle’s final AAA season total of 24.
Now in reality in reality you can’t project how good of a hitter a minor leaguer will be by comparing their stats to a major leaguers’s AAA stats so I’m not saying that Mayo will definitely be a better Major league hitter than Mountcastle but I make the comparison to say that they have a lot of similarities as far as being a right handed bat with a ton of power that also can hit for a high average the main difference being that Mayo brings a level of plate discipline that Mountcastle simply doesn’t have (although he has gotten better).
But would the O’s move on from Mountcastle for Mayo? Mountcastle is older than the batch of prospects that are currently reaching the minors but not by much. He is just 1 year old than Adley and just 2 years older than Jordan Westburg and he is under team control for 3 more seasons so there isn’t serious pressure from a timing perspective
The decision between Mayo and Mountcastle comes down to a ceiling vs floor debate. With Mountcastle the O’s can feel good that their first baseman is going to give them 20-30 homers and an OPS in the high 700s. With Mayo you are hoping to get into that 30-40 homers OPS in the high 800s range but that is not a guarantee not every O’s prospect can be a wild success so it would be a shame to give up good in pursuit of great and then get not great. Also not to mention I do not think that we have seen Ryan Mountcastle’s ceiling and I don’t think a season with 35+ homers is out of the question for him if he can be his post vertigo self for an entire season.
I really like Mountcastle as a personality on the team and as a player so I hope that he isn’t pushed out the door but the front office has to be realistic if Mayo is basically Mountcastle with MORE power and the ability not to swing at balls in the dirt then they don’t really have a choice but to make the move. I just want them to be sure about it before they do. I don’t think I could bring myself to trade Mounty but that’s why I don’t have that job.
Jordan Westburg
2023 Stats: G: 68 | AVG: .260 | OBP: .311 | OPS: .715 | wRC+: 97 | HR: 3 | SB: 4
It feels kind of ridiculous writing about whether the O’s should move on from a prospect 68 games into his career and Westburg was good enough in those games that he really doesn’t deserve to be in this spot but with Henderson and Holiday locked into the other 2 infield spots the O’s have to decide who the best possible person for that third spot and just because Westburg got called up before these guys doesn’t mean he is definitely better than them. Henderson and Holiday both rose to the #1 prospect status and as good as Westburg is he was never held in that regard so he’s not as untouchable.
I will say I am going into this thinking that Westburg should be that third guy. First of all his sober demeanor has led to people comparing him to Nick Markakis and that just makes me like him it just does but besides that I like that Westburg came up as a shortstop and can play second, third, short and even the outfield if needed so he provides a lot of versatility which now that Joey Ortiz has left the organization is something that our prospects don’t have as much of so that is valuable. For example if Jackson Holiday takes over shortstop and Gunnar goes to third Westburg can play second but if Holiday ends up at second with Henderson at short then Westburg can just as easily play third. Compared to Mayo who has played mostly third with a bit of first and Norby who has played mostly second with a bit of outfield so advantage Westburg there.
If we do the last year of AAA comparison here is how it shakes out:
Westburg: .295/.372/.567
Mayo: .290/.410/.563
Norby: .290/.359/.483
So like I said earlier this isn’t the most scientific way to compare players but from these stats you can see that Westburg and Mayo are very comparable hitters and Norby is probably a tier below. I do feel like I should say that those Westburg stats are from a half season before he got called up so he didn’t sustain those very impressive rate stats for a full season. So to provide more context let’s look at these guys’ OPS over the past three minor league seasons over various levels:
Westburg: 2021: .868 | 2022: .851 | 2023: .939
Mayo: 2021: .981 | 2022: .782 | 2023: .973
Norby: 2021: .785 | 2022: .886 | 2023: .842
So there you see that the .939 was kind of a high water mark for Westburg and Mayo isn’t without faults as a hitter.
Anyway Mayo and Norby will not likely get a spot with the team to start the year so how Westburg plays in the first half of the year could have a big impact on what happens with Mayo and Norby.
If Westburg is lights out and appears to be everything the O’s want him to be then it might be first base only for Mayo and the trade block for Norby.
If Westburg does about what he did last season and put up decent but not special numbers then I could see the O’s pivoting on their expectations of what Westburg is from everyday infielder to super utility guy and giving Mayo a shot at third or Norby a shot at second depending on who has been more impressive in the minors.
If Westburg is a total dud then maybe both Norby and Mayo get a shot while Westburg rides the pine or gets sent back down.
Anyway I think Westburg is going to be the guy but in baseball you can go from too much depth to Tyler Nevin at bats pretty quickly when injuries pile up so I wouldn’t be too surprised if we got one or both of these guys for a long stretch this year. I’ve been basically assuming that Jackson Holiday will eventually rise and take his place in the infield this year but he’s so young that that is not a guarantee to happen this very season so if Norby and Mayo get an opportunity they should make the most of it.
Once again I am focusing too much on the 2024 season when my intention is to try and figure out who is a part of the future and who is destined for the trade block. You might have asked yourself why can’t Norby come up and take Ramon Urias’ spot and he very well could but I want to focus on these guys’ future’s as a starter and not whether or not they can take a roster spot from a journeyman utility guy and be a guy that plays once or twice a week.
Anyway Here are some infield roster configurations that could be possible for the start of 2025 and going forward
We get all the prospects involved
1B: Mayo
2B: Holiday
SS: Henderson
3B: Westburg
Util: Norby
Mayo’s bat wins out scenario/ Norby traded
1B: Mountcastle
2B: Holiday
SS: Henderson
3B: Mayo
Util: Westburg
Mayo traded
1B: Mountcastle
2B: Holiday
SS: Henderson
3B: Westburg
Util: Norby
Westburg total flame out
1B: Mayo
2B: Norby
SS: Holiday
3B: Henderson
Util: Urias
Obviously these aren’t all the possible combinations but the main takeaways from this blog is that Coby Mayo has the kind of bat that will eventually force its way onto the roster and it seems like that will happen at Mountcastle’s expense. Norby on the other hand is pretty firmly blocked and someone ahead of him would have to be pretty disappointing for him to be an everyday guy, he’s be a good guy to have a utility guy but he’s good enough that he should want a bigger opportunity for himself which is why I always have him in mock trades.
So based on the decisions I made in the last blog the future of the Orioles will look like this:
C: Adley Rutschman
1B: Coby Mayo
2B: Jackson Holiday
SS: Gunnar Henderson
3B: Jordan Westburg
LF: Colton Cowser
CF: Cedric Mullins
RF: Heston Kjerstad
DH: Anthony Santander
So that frees the O’s up to trade Ryan Mountcastle, Connor Norby, Austin Hays and Ryan O’Hearn to try to improve the rotation, the bullpen or even get more prospects. Now you do have some control over what you trade but you don’t control what other people want and it may be the case that other teams look at the O’s and they say they only want Cowser or Mayo or Westburg while I would try to steer away from those guys if the trade deadline comes up and the O’s have chance to make a Jazz Chisolm for Zac Gallen trade and the price HAS to be Coby Mayo or Jordan Westburg then I think the O’s probably pull the trigger and roll with Ryan Mountcastle or Connor Norby and feel pretty good about those positions.
The Dishwasher 
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