One Pitching Prospect from Each Contender for the Orioles to Target at this Deadline

With the Orioles positioned to be sellers at the deadline they should be almost exclusively targeting starting pitching prospects in their trades. Preferably starting pitching prospects either currently in triple A or about to be in triple A so that they can start impacting the major league roster as soon as possible. 

Most of the players the Orioles will be moving at this deadline will not command massive returns so on this list of trade targets we’re going to skip past names like Bubba Chandler and Chase Burns and look more at names towards the very back end of top prospect lists as well as names that haven’t quite cracked those lists yet. 

In this blog I have taken the teams that will most likely be buyers at this deadline and picked one starting pitching prospect from their system that the Orioles should pursue and laid out the beginnings of an actual trade offer. 

I’ve also highlighted a backup prospect to target in case the original prospect I have selected is one of the GM’s favorites (I didn’t do mock trades for the backup targets because the human mind can only handle so many fake trades) and if there were enough interesting pitchers in the system I highlighted a few “names to watch” that I considered. 

You might notice that I don’t include a lot of minor league stats in my analysis and that is on purpose because when it comes to the minors a lot of these stats are in very small sample sizes and in very different contexts. It is hard to compare Triple A to Double A and it’s hard to know what will transfer over to the Majors so I mostly left that out because I didn’t want my analysis to boil down to “here are the triple A pitchers with the best xFIP”.

When it comes to the trade offers I drafted, if you are a fan of another team and you hate what I said the O’s should offer for your prospect then just know in almost every case I am fine with the Orioles including other players and prospects to get the deal across the finish line.

If you think Cedric Mullins for your pitching prospect is laughable then just imagine the offer is Cedric Mullins and Creed Willems for your pitching prospect. How does that make you feel? 

To the Orioles fans who will feel sad to see their favorite players in trades just know that I am not rooting for fan favorite players to be traded but if those players have to go then here is who the Orioles should try to get in return.

Trade Partners and the Prospects

The Philadelphia Phillies 

Mick Abel 

Pipeline: PHI #8

Fangraphs: PHI #13

Just Baseball: PHI #8

Current Level: MLB 

Age: 23

Andrew Painter is the Phillies prized pitching prospect and Abel’s star has waned after struggling last year in Triple A so if the Phillies were going to make room in their crowded rotation for a rookie it would be Painter over Abel. 

Abel has made 35 starts at Triple A and recently made his major league debut pitching 6 shutout innings against the Pirates and just got called up again after Aaron Nola went on the IL. 

It is not impossible that Abel could pitch so well he steals a rotation spot but it feels like it would be a really high bar for him to clear to be a postseason starter and with the Phillies core players being mostly on the wrong side of 30 if you’re not going to play a role in the playoffs this season then what is the point? 

Proposed Trade

Cedric Mullins & Keegan Akin for Mick Abel

Backup

Moises Chace

Pipeline: PHI #5

Fangraphs: OVR #116, PHI #3

Just Baseball: PHI #4

Current Level: AA

Age: 21

Can we get a do-over on that Gregory Soto trade? I’m not sure what kind of precedent there is for a prospect pinging back and forth between orgs like that but since he was traded Chace has looked really good. 

I’ve never been a GM but I know from fantasy sports that when you fleece someone in your league that the player you stole in the trade becomes a prized possession. That player is proof of your brilliant and cunning mind so you’d be slow to trade them back lest you end up on the wrong end of the deal. 

I imagine it’s similar in real life so the chances of the O’s getting Chace back are minimal but maybe a couple more PED suspensions in the Phillies bullpen and we might see some real desperation. 

Other Names to Watch

Jean Cabrera – Fast Riser in AA

Michael Mercado – Already debuted currently being used as a swingman 4A reliever type

The Atlanta Braves 

Hurston Waldrep 

Pipeline: ATL #2

Fangraphs: ATL #7

Just Baseball: ATL #6

Current Level: AAA

Age: 23

The Braves are battling back after a slow start and currently find themselves outside of the playoff picture so I am not sure what level of interest they would have in making a win now trade BUT they just got Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider back from the IL and we’ve seen Atlanta refuse to accept a lost season and get active at the trade deadline before to great success so I think it is possible that some of their top pitching prospects could be on the table. 

Waldrep has fallen a bit on many top 100 lists after his disappointing debut last season and he has struggled early this year in Triple-A and the Braves have rotation headlined by young arms that are ahead of Waldrep and will most likely continue to be ahead of Waldrep for the next several years. At the same time they are getting about as little offense out of their outfield as you could imagine for a team that has World Series aspirations.

Even with the Smith-Shawver injury, because the Braves have fallen so far behind in the standings, they don’t really have the luxury of letting a young pitcher like Waldrep take his lumps.

So this could be another Cedric Mullins or even Ryan O’Hearn (since Michael Harris plays a good enough centerfield to make an offensive first (only?) corner outfielder like O’Hearn acceptable) destination. Another thing to consider with the Smith-Shawver injury is that if the Braves need regular season innings and Charlie Morton really has turned it around that he could also be included in that trade. 

Proposed Trade

Ryan O’Hearn & Charlie Morton for Hurston Waldrep

Backup

Drue Hackenburg 

Pipeline: ATL #4

Fangraphs: ATL #9

Just Baseball: ATL #8

Current Level: AA

Age: 23

If you thought having Doug Mcdermott’s younger brother on the Orioles was cool, imagine adding Christian Hackenburg’s younger brother to the mix. Hackenburg is currently injured and got off to a slow start to the 2025 season but in 2024 he pitched his way from A ball all the way to Triple A and was quite good at every level. 

He’s something of a developmental success for the Braves as they’ve basically reshaped his featured pitches and they’ve seen his stuff get better and better the longer he’s been with them. Even though I have my doubts about Orioles pitching development I think it is fair to say there’s even more untapped potential with Hackenburg. 

Other Names to Watch 

Blake Burkhalter – Reliever turned starter after finding another gear

Ian Mejia – Lowish ceiling but projects to be a future innings eater type, might now cost much in a trade

The New York Mets 

Nolan McLean

Pipeline: NYM #6

Just Baseball: OVR #38, NYM #4

Current Level: AAA

Age: 23

It is a little harder to see the Mets parting with any sort of pitching prospect that could stand to help the team either this year or next because their rotation is so thin but I thought Mclean was an interesting candidate because of his connection to the Orioles who drafted him in 2022 in the third round (Would have been Mike Elias’ highest drafted pitcher ever at the time). The Orioles opted not to sign him because of an MRI they didn’t like and I don’t know if that’s the kind of thing that ruins a relationship forever but it’s been 3 years and Mclean is just one level away from the big leagues so if the Orioles liked him in 2022 I would suppose they would still like him now. 

The Mets for their part don’t have the strongest rotation but their lack of pitching talent is more of the “we don’t have an ace” variety rather than we don’t have enough people to eat innings variety. Plus the Mets have another pitching prospect ahead of Mclean so it’s more likely that guy gets to be the young pitcher taking his lumps. 

Similar to the Phillies and Braves the Mets have outfield issues and someone like Cedric Mullins could really help them. I don’t want to trade Cedric Mullins anywhere but I do think he’d look really good in a Mets uniform just from an aesthetic perspective. 

Proposed Trade

Cedric Mullins and Jorge Mateo for Nolan McLean 

Backup 

Blade Tidwell

Pipeline: NYM #15

Just Baseball: NYM #14

Current Level: AAA

Age: 23

Another guy who disappointed in his first big league stint who is on a team that can’t really afford to have guys coming up and getting shelled for research purposes. Tidwell has made 60+ starts in the minors and has been a more Ks than innings guy at every level. The O’s wouldn’t mind letting him figure it out at the major league level in the last few months of a lost season. 

Other Names to Watch 

Dom Hamel – Now here’s a guy

The Chicago Cubs 

Brandon Birdsell 

Pipeline: CHC #8

Fangraphs: CHC #8

Just Baseball: #9

Current Level: AAA

Age: 25

The Cubs pushed in some chips this year to get Kyle Tucker and have been rewarded with one of the best records in all of baseball. They are only guaranteed to have Tucker for the rest of this season so it would be in their best interest to take full advantage of it. 

Birdsell was knocking on the door of a major league call up but an injury has kept him from appearing at any level. He won’t be able to help the Cubs win the World Series this season with his play but if they could turn him into an impact player at the deadline that could make the difference this October. 

Birdsell is a command guy who primarily uses his fastball to get outs. This style of pitching is very repeatable so he comes with a high floor but he doesn’t have the wow offspeed stuff to be considered a “top” pitching prospect. That being said he would immediately become the Orioles top pitching prospect if they acquired him. 

As far as what it would take to get Birdsell, what the Cubs need most is pitching and the best pitcher the Orioles could be moving would be Zach Eflin. Eflin’s stats don’t look great right now but that is mostly because they are inflated by a couple of starts he had after coming back from a 15 day IL stint. Maybe this is me being overly optimistic on who Eflin is but I think he would slot in as the Cubs 2nd or 3rd best starter. 

Proposed Trade

Zach Eflin & Jorge Mateo for Brandon Birdsell

Backup

NA

Other Names to Watch 

NA

The Pittsburgh Pirates 

Thomas Harrington 

Pipeline: OVR #84, PIT #3

Fangraphs: PIT #6

Just Baseball: PIT #3

Current Level: AAA

Age: 23

This one is a bit of a different case than the other trades suggested so far. Most of the teams on this list are contending teams who should be in the business of trading prospects for Major League talent to try to win the World Series this year but the Pirates have one of the worst records in the league and yet here they are. 

The reason for the Pirates inclusion is that because of how good Paul Skenes is they are under pressure to start winning now and the primary thing holding them back is their offense. The Pirates currently have one of the worst offenses in the league and a strong crop of pitching prospects so it makes good sense to trade from their strength to support their great weakness. 

The kind of player the Orioles should be offering in the trade will be different as well. Instead of a rental type the Orioles would have to part with Coby Mayo to get their hands on Harrington. In my eyes it would be something of a win-win trade. Both Mayo and Harrington have disappointed a bit in their first stints in the majors and could use the chance to get some playing time rather than getting yo yod between the majors and minors to fill in for injuries. 

Proposed Trade

Coby Mayo for Thomas Harrington

Backup

Hunter Barco 

Pipeline: OVR # 93, PIT #5

Fangraphs: PIT #4

Just Baseball: PIT #8

Current Level: AAA

Age: 24

Again how many top 100 pitching prospects do you need? Flip one for a bat already, it’s time to live Pittsburgh!

Other Names to Watch 

Braxton Ashcraft – Currently relieving for the Major league team and has great stuff, could easily be a starter eventually

Jared Jones – He’s not going to be able to help you win anything during Skenes’ pre arb years why not trade him for someone who might. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers 

River Ryan

Pipeline: LAD #9

Fangraphs: OVR #113, LAD #8

Just Baseball: LAD #7

Current Level: MLB (IL)

Age: 26

Another interesting trade candidate. The Dodgers are in the going for it business and although when they are firing on all cylinders it feels like they’re just going to win every World Series until the end of time there is something of an expiration date on this current super team. Ohtani, Freeman and Betts are all in their thirties and while I am sure the Dodgers will not struggle to get more star players to come play for them it is in their best interest to win as many World Series’ as they can while those 3 guys specifically are still in their primes. 

So that’s where River Ryan comes in. Ryan got Tommy John surgery at the end of last season which means he can’t help the Dodgers win the World Series this year and the Dodgers have Yamamoto, Glasnow and Snell among others all under contract for the next several years so it’s not like they need to hold onto Ryan because he is their one shining hope for the future of Dodgers pitching. 

As far as why the Orioles would want Ryan he should be back sometime in 2026 when the team will hopefully be good again. He consistently improved his last few years in the Dodgers system and he looked like a real guy in his limited run starting at the big league level in 2024. He can touch 100 with his fastball and he’s got multiple good offspeed pitches. He makes a lot of sense for a team focused on 2026 and beyond. 

Proposed Trade

Tomoyuki Sugano & Heston Kjerstad for River Ryan

Backup

Nick Frasso

Pipeline: LAD #12

Fangraphs: LAD #14

Current Level: AAA

Age 26

Frasso has flashed really good stuff when he’s been healthy over the past few years but the “When he’s been healthy” part of the sentence has been the problem for Frasso. 

Because of the health risks he wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Ryan but he does provide similar upside. Could be a more reasonable trade target if the Dodgers look at the Orioles trade offer for River and burst out laughing. 

Other Names to Watch For 

NA

The San Diego Padres 

Victor Lizarraga

Pipeline: SDP #13

Current Level: AA

Age: 21

In the face of everyone crying and begging the Padres to stop making win now moves the Padres always respond with “We’re going to make even more win now moves”.

Most recently they have been sending out signals that they are interested in acquiring a left fielder and with Michael King out for an unknown amount of time they could be in the market for an innings eater. 

When I look at the arms in the Padres system Victor Lizarraga jumps out because of how young he is compared to how much experience he has. He just turned 21 and already has pitched a full season in the Double A. The Padres have been known to rush prospects through the system but Lizarraga pitched well in his age 20 season against mostly much older prospects. 

He still has some developing to do and he would have to be added to the 40 man this offseason despite not being super close to debuting so it would be understandable if the Orioles looked elsewhere in trades but with so many of the Orioles pitching prospects going down with injuries there could be room on the 40 man for a player still a season away from debuting. 

Proposed Trade 

Ramon Laureano for Victor Lizarraga 

Backup 

Ryan Bergert 

Pipeline: SDP #21

Current Level: MLB

Age: 25

Bergert fits the theme of pitching prospect who is close to making their debut (or in this case already made their debut) but aren’t likely to play a big role in the teams championship hopes this season and is therefore expendable in a trade. 

With his fastball hovering around 93-94 mph he would certainly fit in with the Cade Povich/Chayce Mcdermott types the Orioles have hanging around the upper minors but as we’ve seen with those two that’s a relatively low ceiling archetype. However the more of those types of guys you have around the more likely it is one of them will make a leap and become a good starter so why not improve your odds and grab another if the Padres want to hand him over in exchange for Charlie Morton or Ramon Laureano. 

Other Names to Watch

Henry Baez – I might regret not having Baez as my preferred trade candidate as he is poised to be a fast riser in this system

Braden Nett – Another pretty fun arm that could be awesome or could be nothing it’s hard to tell at this point

The Seattle Mariners 

Logan Evans 

Pipeline: SEA #10

Just Baseball: SEA #9

Current Level: MLB

Age: 23

At some point the Mariners have to admit that they have a problem. They are addicted to successfully developing good starting pitchers and over the past several years they have shown a troubling pattern of behavior as they’ve continuously  drafted and developed guys that other teams overlooked and turned them into major leaguers. And the worst part of it is there are helpless little teams all over the country that could use those starters and the Mariners refuse to share. 

On a serious note the Mariners have one of the best rotations we’ve seen in recent MLB history and they have a flawed lineup so a starter like Logan Evans could be better used as a trade chip to boost this teams offense than as the teams 6th starter bouncing between the Majors and Minors. 

Proposed Trade 

Ryan Mountcastle and Chayce McDermott for Logan Evans 

Backup

Michael Morales 

Pipeline: SEA #14

Just Baseball: SEA #11

Current Level: AA

Age: 22

Oh so there’s a guy who’s made 81 starts for the Mariners minor league affiliates and I’m not supposed to think he’s going to be awesome?

Other Names to Watch

NA

The Houston Astros 

Miguel Ullola 

Pipeline: HOU #4

Current Level: AAA

Age: 22

The Astros are a bit unpredictable, they have been the model of success in the AL for the last decade under several different GMs and Managers and this offseason they traded Kyle Tucker  and let Alex Bregman walk and are making Jose Altuve play left field for no reason. 

So there’s really no telling what they might do but in general they’ve been trying to win and their farm system is terrible anyway so why not trade even more prospects to try to give it one last go in the tail end of Jose Altuve’s prime? 

Ullola is the Astros best pitching prospect but that’s not saying that much really he’s got a pretty electric fastball that he pairs with a lack of command that will either make him an effectively wild starter or an up and down bullpen arm. 

Proposed Trade

Ryan Mountcastle for Miguel Ullola

Backup

AJ Blubaugh 

Pipeline: HOU #9

Current Level: AAA

Age: 24

Blubaugh made his major league debut this year and it was the kind of debut that makes you say “That guy might be a major league pitcher maybe.” He’s the rare reliever turned starter and success story so far and if things go south for him as a starter he could always go back. 

Other Names to Watch 

Jose Fleury

James Hicks 

The Detroit Tigers 

Sawyer Gipson-Long 

Pipeline: DET #29

Fangraphs: DET #13

Current Level: AAA (Rehab)

Age: 27

The Tigers are just a year removed from being sellers at the deadline and this year they have an argument that they are the best team in the American League. The Tigers are at the beginning of what anyone would assume to be their window (although we’ve seen how fast a window can close) but the AL doesn’t have the top end talent of the NL this year so if you’re the Tigers you have to feel like this could be a year where you steal a World Series appearance and a successful trade deadline could the difference between petering out in the ALDS and getting to be the plucky underdog in the World Series against whatever behemoth comes out of the NL. 

Gipson-Long was never a super highly regarded pitching prospect for the Tigers but he made his way to the Majors last year and was very solid in his 4 starts before having to get Tommy John. He is close to making his return and has looked good in his rehab starts so far but with the Tigers looking at a potential World Series run would they benefit from turning this 27 year old prospect into a rental piece that could help them compete for the 1 seed and the pennant in 2025? 

Proposed Trade

Andrew Kittredge for Sawyer Gipson-Long 

Backup

Jake Miller 

Pipeline: DET #15

Fangraphs: DET #16

Current Level: AA

Age: 23

Miller is a fast riser in the Tigers’ system and recently fought his way out of the bullpen into a starting role which is always intriguing to me. 

Other Names to Watch 

Joseph Montevalo – Very raw prospect who is making it work at Double AA.

The Cleveland Guardians 

Parker Messick 

Pipeline: CLE #13

Fangraphs: OVR # 62, CLE #5

Just Baseball: CLE #14

Current Level: AAA

Age: 24

The Guardians just do this thing where every year they start the season and everyone is more excited about other teams in their league and division and then at the end of the season they are in the playoffs and last year they were just a few games away from the World Series. 

This year it’s more of the same with Guardians currently in possession of the #1 Wild Card spot but the Twins and the Royals are hot on their tail. The Guards have a weakish rotation for what we’re used to from Cleveland so it feels like perhaps the they’ll be a little skittish to trade a pitching prospect that is anywhere near the majors but they also have real holes in their lineup especially in the outfield making them a possible destination for Cedric Mullins or even Ryan O’Hearn.

Messick has been successful at every level of the minors. He’s pitched over 100 innings every season in the minors and has had more K’s than IP every year. As a lefty with lowish velo he reminds me a bit of Cade Povich but without the command concerns. He just seems like a good pitcher to me. 

Proposed Trade

Cedric Mullins and Seranthony Dominguez for Parker Messick

Backup

Daniel Espino 

Pipeline: CLE #23

Current Level: AAA

Age: 24

Espino is a former first round pick that seemed like he was well on his way to becoming another classic Guardians pitching success story before injuries completely derailed him over the last few years. He hasn’t pitched in a game since 2022 so if the O’s were to trade for him it would be a complete mystery box acquisition but with the upside that maybe you open that box and an ace pitcher comes out. How exciting would that be? 

Other Names to Watch 

Doug Nikhazy – Nikhazy already debuted this year and has some relief risk but he’s a funky lefty and we’ve barely gotten to watch anyone like that Baltimore. 

Ryan Webb

The Minnesota Twins

Andrew Morris

Pipeline: MIN #9

Just Baseball: MIN #8

Current Level: AAA

Age: 23

The Twins will be interesting characters in the trade deadline drama this year. They’ve typically been buyers in recent seasons but their ownership has not been shy about wanting to dial back the spending so that makes it feel like they won’t be in the business if trading cheap talent for rentals. BUT they have a rotation already full of young pitchers under team control for several years so they have some wiggle room to trade some starting pitching prospects to fill some of the holes in their lineup and try to redeem their 2024 meltdown in 2025. 

After reading about and proposing several trades for prospects with good stuff but a lack of command, the idea of trading for a “Say No to Walks” style pitcher feels like I’m being wrapped in a warm blanket. I love guys that pound the strike zone and Morris has done that and seen success which means his stuff isn’t exactly super easy to hit. 

Proposed Trade

Ryan Mountcastle for Andrew Morris

Backup 

Marco Raya

Pipeline: MIN #6

Just Baseball: MIN #7

Current Level: AAA

Age: 22

Raya is pretty much the opposite of Morris as a guy with great stuff but a high walk rate and he’s really struggled in Triple A so far this year. The thing about trading for non top 100 pitching prospects is that if they had good stuff and command then they’d be top 100 pitching prospects. 

Other Names to Watch 

Cory Lewis – Knuckleballer?!?!

The Kansas City Royals 

Luinder Avila 

Pipeline: KCR #19

Fangraphs: KCR #5

Current Level: AAA

Age: 23

The Royals are an imbalanced team. They have a great rotation and an offense that basically rests on the shoulders of one man. So even though I don’t expect them to be aggressive buyers at this deadline I wouldn’t be surprised to see them deal from a position of strength to get some lineup protection for Bob Witt. 

Avila is not one of the Royals top pitching prospects but he is nearing an MLB debut. With the rotation ahead of him looking crowded I could see the Royals choosing to swap him out for some offense in the outfield. 

Proposed Trade

Ramon Laureano and Gregory Soto for Luinder Avila

Backup

Hunter Owen 

Pipeline: KCR #22

Current Level: AA

Age: 23

Who doesn’t love a big ole boy on the mound?

Other Names to Watch 

Chandler Champlain 

The New York Yankees

Chase Hampton

Pipeline: NYY #7

Fangraphs: NYY #8

Current Level: AA

Age: 23 

In division trades are rare and I don’t relish the idea of helping the Yankees compete for a World Series but at this point in the Orioles season they can’t be too worried about what the Yankees are doing. One reason my antenna is up is that there was buzz around the Yankees looking for a right handed 3B/2B type player and man alive if that isn’t Ramon Urias to a tee. 

I am not hoping that the Orioles will trade Ramon Urias but if the Yankees are desperate for a Ramon Urias type and they are willing to trade away a potential starting pitcher with 6 years of control for a guy who will probably be a bench player next year if Jordan Westburg can ever stay healthy then that’s a situation the Orioles should take advantage of. 

Proposed Trade

Ramon Urias for Chase Hampton

Backup 

Cam Schlitter 

Pipeline: NYY #10

Fangraphs: NYY #5

Current Level: AA

Age: 24

Imagine how much Jim Palmer would love to call a game where the Orioles put a 6’6 power throwing starter on the mound. Imagine Ben McDonald calling him Big Cam Schlitter everytime he reads through the starting lineup. There is an aura here. 

Other Names to Consider 

Clayton Beeter – Another Dodgers prospect who wasn’t nearly what you hoped he’d be when you traded for him?? How does this keep happening?