The Orioles Should Be Willing to Do Almost Anything for 2026 Starting Pitching

When I saw the news that Grayson Rodriguez had suffered another elbow related setback in his rehab I got dizzy. I tried to focus what the article was saying but the letters in the headline floated up into the air and rearranged themselves in front of me and here is what it said: 

The Orioles rotation is going to stink next year unless they get busy in the trade market.

Right now before you factor in injuries, here are the pitchers the Orioles have under contract for next season. 

If there were no changes the 5 guys in the rotation would be Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich 

Brandon Young, Chayce McDermott, Tyler Wells and Albert Suarez will also be floating around as depth. 

On the surface this doesn’t look like a bad group, Bradish looked like a real ace at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024, Rodriguez has the stuff to be a very good 2-3 starter, Trevor Rogers has looked very good in his 5 starts this season, and Dean Kremer is the definition of a steady 4-5 starter. If you could turn off injuries I think you would feel really good about adding a high end free agent arm like Framber Valdez or Dylan Cease and rolling with the guys you have on the roster. 

Unfortunately you can’t turn off injuries and when you look under the hood at the guys the Orioles would be depending on it’s not an especially reliable bunch. 

Bradish will be coming back from Tommy John which is difficult. You look around the league at pitchers coming back from Tommy John and they don’t just immediately look like their old selves. Sandy Alcantara has been the worst starting pitching the league by WAR and Spencer Strider has struggled to keep his velo up start to start so there is no guarantee that Bradish just comes back and is contending for a Cy Young right away in fact I would guess him struggling is much more likely than him coming back and looking like the same guy. 

It hasn’t been announced that Rodriguez is having Tommy John surgery so I shouldn’t assume that’s what’s happening but I don’t know how to look at the timeline of injuries he’s had this year and not feel like it’s inevitable. Tommy John or not I think going into a season assuming that Grayson Rodriguez is going to give you a full starters workload is a fool’s errand. 

Trevor Rogers is about to enter his final year of arbitration and his career high in innings is 133. So similar to Grayson this just isn’t someone that you can plug into the rotation and assume that you’re going to get 30+ starts. 

That leaves you with only Dean Kremer as far as who you have on the roster that it feels reasonable to expect 160+ innings from in 2026 and I think if you go into a season with the stated plan of “We’ve got Dean Kremer and a bunch of health question marks in our rotation” then I don’t think you can be taken seriously as a contender. 

If that’s really your plan you’re signing up for a bunch of Cade Povich, Brandon Young and Chayce McDermott starts, like maybe more starts from those 3 guys than Rodriguez, Bradish and Rogers and even if you’re optimistic on the Povich, Young, and McDermott trio they’d all have to take significant steps forward in order for the idea of them pitching a large bulk of innings to not be a nightmare scenario. 

When you look at the rest of the Orioles minor league pitchers there are some promising arms in the lower levels but nobody that you can point to and say that guy is someone we can give 30 starts to in 2026 and feel great about it. 

With no internal solution to the Orioles 2026 rotation problem the front office will have to use free agency and trades to bolster the rotation and looking at the names the Orioles currently have under contract for the 2026 season it is my opinion that they need acquire at least 3 starting pitchers. 2 of those 3 need to be real top of the rotation level pitchers and they’ll also need a dependable innings eater type as well. 

So if free agency is an option for getting pitchers for 2026 why do the Orioles need to trade for starting pitching. 

Well let’s look at who’s available in free agency and who the Orioles will be competing with to sign them. 

Mini Free agency preview 

Almost all of the Orioles biggest contracts come off the books this offseason which will bring their payroll down to ~65 million dollars and so they’ll have some room to play with if they want to be aggressive in pursuing free agent pitchers and this year’s free agency has a surplus of good starting pitchers who are flawed enough that they probably won’t be looking to sign record breaking deals. 

Here are the O’s best options: 

Framber Valdez

Ranger Suarez

Dylan Cease 

Zac Gallen (admittedly more of a project than you would have thought a year ago)

Michael King

There are some other interesting options like if Brandon Woodruff declines his mutual option or if you think Dustin May can be something and there are some older guys like Merrill Kelly and Chris Bassitt but as far as guys in their prime who have proved themselves over multiple seasons those 5 are the best you’re going to find.

In a dream world you could say the Orioles will sign 2 of those guys and then re-sign Zach Eflin and they’ll be in a good spot for 2026 but that is much easier said than done. 

The biggest worry about planning to fix your rotation in free agency is getting outbid. So here is a table I made that outlines who has starting pitching needs and who has the money to spend big on starting pitching.

So just quickly looking around the league I see 19 teams that will also be looking to improve their rotation in free agency besides the Orioles and 15 teams that have the money to go toe to toe with anyone in a bidding war if they decide they need to land a certain guy. That’s not even considering the fact that a smaller market or more traditionally frugal team could come out of nowhere with a big offer for one of the top arms. 

So you can’t just assume the Orioles are going to walk away from free agency with multiple really good starting pitchers just because they really need to. They needed to get a top arm in last year’s free agency and the best they got was Charlie Morton. 

If I had to put odds on what the Orioles would do in free agency I would say it is more likely that the Orioles don’t get any of the top pitchers in free agency than that they get 2 or more of them. 

On top of how hard it is to sign a good player in free agency the Orioles are going to have to do it with the GM with the worst free agency track record in baseball at the helm.

Even if Elias does sign a top pitcher in free agency chances are he’ll take the guy with the bigger injury risk that he can get on a discount over the more proven arm and then halfway through the season when our free agent pitcher is on the IL he’ll be doing press conference about how injuries are random and they couldn’t have seen this coming.

My point is that if the Orioles need to acquire 3 starting pitchers for next year’s rotation then at least 1 if not 2 of them are going to have to come from a trade and that the need for starting pitching in Baltimore is so dire that they should be willing to consider trading anyone except a few core guys to try to fill that massive gap in the roster. 

My absolute preference is that the Orioles could use players from their farm system that I am only vaguely aware of and wouldn’t miss but even with the Orioles recent “great draft” they don’t have the kind of prospects in their farm system that teams are lining up to trade top of the rotation starters. 

In the absence of prospect capital that teams want to trade for the Orioles will have to deal from their major league roster so here is a tier list of the Orioles major league/upper minor league talent that could be traded either at this deadline or in the offseason. 

Tier 1: The One True Untouchable 

Gunnar Henderson

The only person on the entire team that I wouldn’t trade for anyone in the league is Gunnar Henderson. Maybe that’s dumb and I’m wearing Orioles tinted glasses but I wouldn’t trade Gunnar for Skubal or Skenes or anyone. 

Tier 2: Untouchable by Default 

Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser and Samuel Basallo 

The difference between this tier and tier 1 is that these are guys that I would only trade away in exchange for the kinds of pitchers that are just not going to be traded. So like if the Pirates called us up and said we’ll trade you Paul Skenes for Jordan Westburg I would do that but that’s never going to happen so these guys are untouchable by default. 

I could see each of these guys being a little controversial here so I’ll do a little explaining

Jordan Westburg is the second best player on the Orioles, he’s been hurt a lot which raises some concerns but I think they’ve mostly been freak things like getting hit by a pitch or breaking his finger sliding into a bag so I don’t think he’s a chronic injury guy. Once he plays a full healthy season it’s going to be clear that the Orioles have a top 5 third baseman in baseball.

I think we have only scratched the surface of who Jackson Holliday can be as a major leaguer. Once he find the happy medium between his current plate approach and what he was doing in the minors he’s going to be a nightmare to face at the plate and if he either gets better at baserunning or just plays it more conservative out there that will help as well. I think he’s only getting better at second base defense as time goes on. 

Basallo was tricky because he hasn’t played a major league game yet and I have been putting him in mock trades for years but at this point with him being so close to the big leagues and so special in triple A at such a young age I don’t think you can consider trading him anymore. He’s either the first baseman or the catcher of the future for the Orioles. Decide which one and make room for him. 

Colton Cowser is going to be the Orioles only plus defending outfielder if they let Cedric Mullins go. Plus he is very important to team morale, trading him would be like trading away the heart of the team. 

Tier 3: Just barely touchable 

Adley Rutschman and Felix Bautista 

Here are two guys whose names are currently floating on the periphery of trade talks mostly because other teams would love to get their hands on them. I want it stated that I do not think the Orioles should trade either of these guys. The Orioles should be focusing on trying to win the World Series in 2026 and 2027 and these two guys would play an invaluable role in that goal. 

When I close my eyes and picture the Orioles winning the World Series it is Felix Bautista on the mound throwing to Adley Rutschman and I don’t want to give that up so the fact that I am including these guys in the touchable category just shows how desperate the Orioles are for starting pitching. I would have liked to have put these guys in the untouchable by default tier but I just couldn’t do it. 

Adley because he’s played so poorly for the last year and our only top prospect plays his position and Felix because starting pitching is always more important that relief pitching so if you have a chance to trade an elite relief pitcher for even just a really good starting pitcher you have to consider it. 

Last year the Orioles had an elite starter and a terrible closer and they made the playoffs this year they’ve got an elite closer and no ace pitcher and they are 10 games under .500, that’s just how it goes. 

As far as what I would trade these guys for it would have to be guys who are under contract for 3+ years that have a really good shot at being a number 1 starting pitcher on a playoff team. Those kinds of guys don’t get traded a lot so like I said it’s not like I’m dangling them out there for the first team to offer up whatever. 

For example I saw the Mick Abel for Felix Bautista mock trade and I think that is preposterous BUT change that name to Andrew Painter and I think we can work something out. I can hear Phillies fans complaining about the price but that’s what it costs when you want to trade for someone that isn’t actually on the market. 

It doesn’t have to be just prospects. If the Giants called up the O’s and said we’ll do Logan Webb for Adley Rutschman I think you’d have to think long and hard about that. If Adley comes back from his injury and performs like his old self I’d move him back into the untouchable by default tier so fast you wouldn’t believe it.

Tier 4: Coby Mayo

Coby Mayo 

Mayo gets his own tier because of how unique his situation is. He hasn’t proved enough at the big league level to be considered a definite part of the Orioles future but he is under team control through 2030 and certainly has shown a ton of potential in the minors so the Orioles should be very careful trading him if they want to avoid a Kyle Stowers type storyline. 

That being said, the O’s have enough good first base options whether that’s the long term home of Samuel Basallo or they want to bring back Ryan O’Hearn that I would be willing to move Mayo for a pitcher in a similar situation. The Pirates have a ton of pitching prospects and no hitters. Do they want to swap Mayo for one of their guys like Jared Jones? Mariners same thing: lots of pitching with poor hitting would they send over Bryce Miller? The Twins are maybe looking at a rebuild, would Mayo be enough to get Joe Ryan? 

Tier 5: Would (but it hurts) 

Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Heston Kjerstad, Ramon Urias, Ramon Laureano, Dylan Beavers, Yennier Cano and Seranthony Dominguez

These are all guys that I really like having on the team but at this point if a team offered you a pitcher who has shown that they can pitch a full season at a sub 4.25 ERA I think you’ve got to pull the trigger. Or if you were offered a prospect who is near or already in the majors that has a shot of being a middle of the rotation guy you’ve got to do it. 

To demonstrate the difference between this tier and tier 3 for example, I said that trading Felix for Mick Abel was preposterous but I would trade anyone in this tier for Mick Abel without much hesitation. 

That being said I would be sad to see any of these guys go even if I understand why it’s happening.

Tier 6: Would (It doesn’t hurt)

Gary Sanchez, Jorge Mateo, Dylan Carlson, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Kittredge, Jud Fabian, Gregory Soto and Keegan Akin

These guys are for the most part who are either deadline rental pieces or guys who I think are utterly replaceable by guys in the minors or that can be acquired incredibly cheaply in free agency or on the waiver wire. 

Not to say I don’t like any of these guys, I have enjoyed some of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Suganos starts and Jorge Mateo has had his moments in an Oriole uniform but if someone offered any sort of starting pitcher or even a starting pitching prospect that may or may not pan out for one of these guys I’d do the deal and not lose any sleep over it. 

Tier 7: Would attach a prospect to trade this player away, would trade them for cash considerations if anyone would do it.

Tyler O’Neill 

I don’t know what else there is to say that the name of the tier doesn’t already say

If the Orioles can sign one really good free agent pitcher and trade for 2 more they’ll put themselves in a decent spot for 2026, anything short of that is asking for a repeat of 2025.