10 Reasons to keep watching the 2025 Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are at a weird part of the schedule. They are 12 games under .500 and they aggressively sold at the deadline so they’ve clearly waved the white flag on the season but there are still 44 games left to be played before we can all go home. 

I watch all the Orioles games and I would much rather watch them play well and win games than watch them play poorly and lose games but whether the Orioles miss the playoffs by 1 game or by 25 games it really doesn’t matter at this point. 

So if the end of game result is not that important anymore what am I watching the games for? 

That’s what we’re trying to answer today so here is a guide of who I am watching closely in these last 44 games.

#1 Can Adley Rutschman renew the front office’s confidence in him? 

Fairly or unfairly from the moment Adley was drafted he was given the title of franchise savior. That title was always going to be hard to live up to but through his first 2 and half seasons it seemed like he was going to at least come close to doing so. His arrival in the big leagues was widely regarded as the turning point where the Orioles went from regular basement dwellers to contenders and through 2 and half seasons he had an OPS in the .800s while playing decent defense and was regularly referred to as the best catcher in baseball.

Then from July of 2024 through May of 2025 he was almost unrecognizable. Slumps happen in baseball but 11 month slumps across multiple seasons with no trips to the IL to explain poor performance are concerning. Adley only has 2 more seasons on his rookie deal after this year and the Orioles top prospect plays his position so the year long slump called into question whether Adley would be a long term fit in Baltimore.

Despite Adley and the Orioles’ protests I was always suspicious that an injury had impacted him at least in the second half of 2024 and since he came back from his IL stint he is slashing .279/.347/.512 which is much more in line with what Orioles fans had come to expect from Adley in his first few seasons. What especially stands out to me is the 7 doubles in those 12 games, in the 68 games Adley appeared in this season before going on the IL he had 9 doubles.

Adley is one of the few Orioles young players not represented by Scott Boras which opens up the possibility of getting some sort of extension done before he reaches free agency. I imagine that Adley was not especially interested in negotiating a contract extension after his worst career season in 2024 but maybe after a strong finish to the 2025 season both sides will be willing to come to the table. 

Adley would have the leverage of a strong second half on top of his first two seasons and the ability to say if Samuel Basallo doesn’t work out and I have a good 2026 my price will go through the roof. 

The Orioles would have the leverage the year long slump on top of having a top catching prospect in their system and would be able to say if Basallo does work out and you struggle again in 2026 the price would go down so let’s meet in the middle. 

#2 Can Jackson Holliday make this a good season? 

After Jackson Holliday’s rookie season there was real concern that he might be a bust. Even after he got sent down and got called back up the numbers were not incredible. 

So when he started off this season doing well at the plate, getting promoted to the leadoff spot and was in the mix for an all star spot it felt like a big relief. The narrative was set that Jackson Holliday might not be what everyone thought when he was the number 1 prospect but that he was going to be a solid player. 

I’m not saying that’s not true but my question is; If we didn’t have his disastrous rookie campaign to compare this season to wouldn’t we be disappointed by this year from Jackson Holliday. 

You look at the numbers and he’s slashing .251/.303/.391 with poor defense at second and on top of that he’s also the worst base runner in the entire league. 

Below average at the plate, bad at defense and terrible on the bases is not the recipe for a good player. 

I’m not saying the Orioles need to be done with Jackson Holliday but since before he was even on the team when people were imagining the Orioles infield of the future they had Jackson Holliday in the mix and next year will be year 3 for Jackson Holliday and he hasn’t been good yet. If at the end of the season he’s still below average at every facet of the game at what point do you look at infield as a spot where you could upgrade the team in the offseason. Jordan Westburg can play second or third so that would give the Orioles a lot of flexibility when looking for a veteran player who could be an upgrade over Holliday.

That being said I don’t want the Orioles to have to invest their resources into replacing Holliday when the pitching staff is such a disaster and all it would take for me to feel much much better about Jackson Holliday would be if he could get hot here in the last 44 games and the year with a slashline closer to .265/.325/.410 (not a high bar to clear). 

If Jackson were to finish on a hot streak I could excuse the bad defensive metrics as him learning a new position and the bad baserunning as him learning his limits like when Peyton Manning threw all those interceptions in his rookie year. (If you’re asking yourself why I can’t make those excuses now the answer is that good hitters get excuses made for them and bad hitters don’t) 

In addition to just seeing Holliday’s performance get better I would also be interested in seeing him moved down in the order where there will be less pressure on him and I think it would be interesting to see how he fares in the outfield. He’s got plenty of speed that isn’t translating at second or on the bases. Why not see if he could handle center? 

#3 What is the future of first base in Baltimore?

Currently the Orioles have 2 primary first basemen in Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle. 

With Mountcastle you feel like you know what you are getting. Good defense at first and an OPS in the mid .700s. I’ve always thought he had the potential to have a breakout season but after 6 seasons it seems like he just is who he is and I’d be better off accepting that. He provides a pretty high floor although some of that high floor has been undermined by injuries the last few seasons. 

Mayo has talent and tools that you can dream on but he has not really put together for any extended stretch in the big leagues in large part because he hasn’t gotten consistent playing time. He could end up being a much better player than Ryan Mountcastle and he might be out of the league in a couple years we just don’t know yet. 

In addition to these 2 Samuel Basallo will be called up soon and he also plays some first base. 

So in these last 40ish games there’s a lot of scenarios that could play out to determine the future of first base. 

Here are the different versions 

Mayo plays well 

Mountcastle plays well 

This would give the front office a lot of options. They could trade Mounty or Mayo in the offseason and still feel good about the DH/1B position. Assuming they both play well a Mayo trade would bring back a bigger return than a Mountcastle trade but there’s no guarantee that there will be a good trade partner for a blockbuster deal like that so the best thing could be to flip Mounty for a reliever. 

Mayo plays well 

Mountcastle plays poorly 

This would be a sad one that would either end up with Mounty being traded for almost nothing or non-tendered but at least we would feel good about Mayo being the first baseman of the future. 

Mayo plays poorly 

Mountcastle plays well

This one pretty much puts Mayo on the Heston Kjerstad track where I don’t think he’d be traded but he’d probably get stuck starting next season in triple A as injury insurance or maybe trying to learn to play the outfield to see if he can crack the roster that way. Mounty on the other hand would have a chance to impress in 2026 before hitting free agency. 

Mayo plays poorly 

Mountcastle plays poorly 

I’m not sure what they would do if this were the case, maybe it turns into a spring training battle with the loser getting optioned or cut or hitting the phantom IL. Maybe Basallo gets the lionshare of the first base at bats in 2026 and this would open up the Orioles to pursue a free agent DH like Kyle Schwarber. 

I am being a little bit intentionally naive because I think the most likely thing is that no matter how anyone plays the Orioles hold onto both players and make them split 1B/DH in a way that is uncomfortable and unproductive. 

I also recognize that I made the options very binary and that I’m assuming that the players will be good or bad and that most likely they’ll both end up somewhere in the middle but this blog is about why we’re watching and I don’t watch the games hoping to see something in the middle so either be good or be bad. 

#4 Can Cade Povich or Brandon Young stake out a 2026 rotation spot?

Right now if I had my way neither of these two players would be in the Orioles 2026 rotation which would consist of: 

1. Free agent signing 
2. Kyle Bradish 
3. Trevor Rogers
4. Second free agent signing or trade target 
5. Grayson Rordiguez who I made healthy through the power of positive thinking 
6. Dean Kremer for when Grayson gets injured again 

But in my history of watching the Orioles I have very rarely gotten my way so when Povich and Young are on the mound for the rest of the season I will be watching intently to see if either of them will show me something that makes me feel like they can be trusted with a regular rotation spot next year. 

Of the two I like Povich a lot more, he’s a lefty and he’s got good offspeed stuff and he improved his command substantially from 2024 to 2025. When he’s out there dealing and looking confident I absolutely see the vision. 

Unfortunately he really struggles each time through the order which leads me to believe that he might be better suited as a bulk reliever/ opener type. That of course can change, getting through the order a third time is a skill and all it takes is figuring out a pitch that gives hitters a different look and suddenly it’s not such a big problem anymore and right now is a sweet spot in time where Povich can try go as deep into every start as possible and if it has disastrous results then its ultimately fine. 

What would I have to see from either of these guys to want them in the rotation next year? 

What I’ll be watching for will be can these guys get deep into games. This has 2 parts, part 1 is that I don’t want to see any 2 inning or 3 inning starts where these guys leave the mound with the game already lost and and part 2 is I’d also like to see them consistently pitching into and beyond the 6th inning. I want to see them get reps facing the lineup a third time even if it means the O’s lose a couple games because they tried to let Povich pitch his way out of a jam in the 7th inning. 

If Povich’s last 6-7 starts all look like his most recent outing against the A’s he’ll have my attention. Young would have to be a lot better than I’ve ever seen him to get consideration but I won’t write him off before he gets the chance to prove me wrong. 

# 5 What will Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers look like?

You might be surprised that these two exciting debuts are so far down the list of things to watch but allow me to explain. Yes seeing these guys debut will be fun but when it comes to end of season rookie debuts I try not to put too much pressure on them to look awesome. 

These games they’ll play at the major league level are all about gaining experience and getting used to how it feels going up against major league pitching which as we’ve seen has been difficult for pretty much every single player the Orioles have called up in the Elias era (as well as for rookies leaguewide). 

If Beavers and Basallo come out the gate red hot smoking balls left and right that will be exciting to watch and encouraging for next season but I don’t think it would mean that they’re destined for super stardom. At the same time if they come up and struggle mightily I don’t think they’re doomed. 

Draw conclusions from a 30 game sample at your own peril. 

Because I’m not putting any pressure on these guys to succeed, they’re a little lower on the entertainment factor than watching guys whose jobs might be on the line next year if they flounder. 

That being said, the first Major League Basallo bomb might change me as a person. 

#6 How will Kyle Bradish look returning from Tommy John?

In the same vein of performances that will be fun to watch but I won’t care much if they go really well or really poorly is how Kyle Bradish looks coming back from Tommy John. I’ll be locked in on his starts to see if he looks comfortable but I’m not going to despair if he struggles with command or gets lit up a couple times. Just do what you gotta do to get comfortable again.

The main difference between Bradish’s return and the rookie’s debuts is that if Bradish does look awesome I will 100% be drawing massive conclusions from that so it’s a win-win scenario. Nothing that happens in a Kyle Bradish start could possibly make me feel bad.

I will say that I am little worried that if he looks too good the front office might decide they don’t need to add any pitching because getting Kyle Bradish back is the same as adding an ace pitcher in free agency, but I’ll burn that bridge when I get to it.

#7 Can Jeremiah Jackson lock down a 2026 roster spot? 

You can’t have a whole team made up of top prospects who think they are going to be super stars. You need utility guys who have bounced around and had to scratch and claw their way to the big leagues and that’s what Jeremiah Jackson could be for the Orioles. 

He’s mostly played in the outfield since getting called up but he’s a natural infielder with over 2,000 career minor league innings at short, over 1,000 innings at second and over 700 innings at third. So with one guy you have a backup for Henderson, Holliday and Westburg and on top of that he’s already shown that if the situation calls for it he’ll give it a go in the outfield. 

In addition of the defensive versatility Jackson can also swing it. He was killing baseballs in triple A and in the majors he hasn’t looked as overmatched as many of the Orioles other call ups (being 25 helps but still) I would expect to see gradual improvement the more he plays. 

Right now the Orioles 2026 bench is completely up in the air and if at the end of the season Jackson’s OPS+ is above 90 I would expect him to get a real shot at being the O’s utility guy in 2026 but if he melts down then it’s probably back to the minors until there’s an injury so I’m rooting for him to force his way onto the 2026 opening day roster.

#8 Bullpen tryouts 

I am at the point with the Orioles bullpen where I am ok if they decide to do a complete overhaul around Felix Bautista. There is nobody currently in the pen that I feel like needs to be on the 2026 roster BUT I am willing to change my mind if any of these guys show something in the final 44 games. 

It does make it a little more entertaining to watch someone come out of the bullpen with runners on and think “maybe this will be a big moment in this guy’s career” even if most of the time the answer ends up being “I guess it wasn’t”.

There are a few guys who I am rooting for I’d love to see Cano get back to looking like his old self, Dietrich Enns has been a nice surprise and Kade Strowd has been solid since he was called up so there’s definitely some potential but like I said I’m not attached to anyone, they could all retire tomorrow and I wouldn’t even be a little bit worried about what that means for 2026. 

What would make this more interesting would be if some of the guys the Orioles traded for at this year’s deadline got called up and got a chance to show what they can do in the big leagues. Anthony Nunez, Cam Foster and Tyson Neighbors are all close enough to the big leagues that it wouldn’t be totally irresponsible to give them the call. 

I don’t think it will happen but those are names to watch for if you see the Orioles roster moves graphic.

#9 Can Tyler O’Neill play well enough to decline his player option? 

The Tyler O’Neill signing went about as bad as it possibly could have gone for the Orioles this season. He was hurt early, tried to play through it, played terribly, went on the IL, came back, went back on the IL, came back again and then went on the IL again. 

O’Neill is a talented player and in some of the windows when he’s been healthy like opening day and week after the trade deadline he has shown the potential that he has as a middle of the order bat but this kind of injury risk makes it almost impossible to plan for a season and having 16.5 million dollars a year tied up in a player who will most likely spend more time on the IL than not really hampers the teams ability to spend on other free agents that could actually help the team. 

I know that it is almost a certainty that if he leaves that next year is the year he plays 155 games and puts up 7 WAR but that is a risk the Orioles have to take or rather have to hope that he takes for them.

If O’Neill could come back with a month left in the season and hit a homer every other day it and show off what kind of a player he is when healthy then maybe a team is willing to throw more than just 16.5 million a year at him and he declines that offer and opens up a whole world of possibilities for the O’s.

#10 Will Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg take on a bigger leadership role? 

This one is lower on the list because it’s hard to tell just from watching the games what these guys are like behind closed doors and when it comes to how they interact with other players on the field it’s a little over top to hyperanalyze who they are standing next to in the dugout and how excited they look when a homer gets hit. 

Nevertheless I will be looking at these things and perhaps more importantly listening to post/pregame interviews to hear if there has been any change in the leadership dynamics on the team and Henderson and Westburg are who I am most interested in seeing how they’ll step up because they are the two best players on the team and despite their age they are already two of the longest tenured players on the team. 

I remember when Gunnar went on Mookie Betts’ podcast and Mookie asked him about being a leader and Gunner was pretty emphatic that he was just one of the young guys and wasn’t a leader on the team to which Mookie responded that it doesn’t matter how long you’ve been playing if you’re going to play the way you’ve been playing those guys are going to look to you to lead. 

I’ve given Tony Mansolino some grief over his quotes in the media but he was right to call out those guys and let them know there is no more Cedric Mullins and Ramon Urias to hide behind. If the Orioles are going to get over the hump they are going to need their best players to step up not just on the field but in the clubhouse and I think Henderson and Westburg can be those guys.