Orioles Offseason Rubric

Five months from now the offseason will be over and we’ll be able to grade Mike Elias’ offseason. When I was in school I really appreciated when a professor gave you a detailed rubric that outlined what you needed to do in their class to get an A, to get a B or to get a C. 

I felt like it was really fair. You knew what you had to do to pass and at the end of the semester there wasn’t much to argue about when you got your final grade. You either did what you were told it would take to get an A or you didn’t. 

Since I will almost certainly be writing a blog next February grading the Orioles offseason I figured it would only be fair if before I hand out a grade that I provide a rubric. So here is what Mike Elias has to do to earn a good grade this offseason. 

Process notes

(please read)

What we’re going to be focused on here are roles on the team that need to be filled. When it comes to how they’re filled that’s up to Mike Elias. He can use free agency or trade or both. I’m not picky about how the new players get to the Orioles. 

One thing that immediately proved tricky when it came to creating this rubric was compensation. I found myself asking would you rather get a great player on a deal that might age poorly or a good player on a team friendly deal. My stance is usually “not my money not my problem” BUT if the Orioles sign a heinous contract it could make it difficult to retain players that I really like and that is my problem. 

I did thought experiments trying to take my thoughts to an extreme logical conclusion, like would you rather sign Framber Valdez to a 4 year 400 million dollar contract or get Chris Bassitt for free because it turns out he owes Craig Albernaz a life debt?

Ultimately I decided that the most important thing is that the Orioles need to take advantage of the 3 year window that they have Gunnar Henderson under team control for less than market value. So for the purpose of grading I am going to weigh the quality of the player acquired much more heavily than the quality of the contract/ price paid in a trade. 

So for the purposes of this rubric we’re going to assume that anyone signed signs for about what outlets like the Athletic and Fangraphs project them to sign for (I’ll reference Ben Clemens from Fangraphs in parenthesis just for consistency and if he didn’t make a projection I’ll use Tim Britton’s article from the Athletic). In most cases it wouldn’t bother me if the Orioles had to go higher than what’s projected because bidding wars are real and sometimes you just have to win. 

When it comes to trades we’re going to assume that any trade is for about fair value and that important players like Gunnar or Basallo aren’t going out in a trade to bring in a pitcher or something ridiculous like that. 

I made a sample version of each grade and put examples of players who would fill the roles that I’m asking for but I’m not married to the guys I used as examples. I’m open to the Orioles being as creative as possible. I saw Bob Phelan from On the Verge did a mock offseason where the Orioles traded for Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton and that sounds awesome to me even though it’s not in any of my example offseasons. So if you don’t like the guys I used as an example of a “Top of the rotation arm” you can mentally substitute in your preferred target and the grade will be the same

Another thing you’ll notice is that in most of these sample offseasons I’m only asking for 4-6 acquisitions. I’m not under the impression that there will only be 4-6 signings/trades. Just earlier this week the Orioles signed Leody Taveras and I’m sure over the next 5 months they will sign 6-7 more different versions of Leody Taveras in the hopes that 1 of them will turn out to be the next Ramon Laureano or Ryan O’Hearn. I’m not really counting those 40 man/minor league depth moves as part of the grade. 

Rubric

A+ 

Outlook: World Series contender

Requirements

2+ TOR starting pitchers 

2+ Proven backend bullpen arms 

1+ Middle of the order veteran bat 

1 Right handed centerfielder 

Sample 

Sign: Framber Valdez (5/130)

Trade for: Freddy Peralta

Sign: Devin Williams (2/24)

Sign: Pete Fairbanks (2/20 (Pete had his option declined while I was writing this so this is my guess)

Sign: Kyle Schwarber (3/105)

Sign: Harrison Bader (2/30)

I’m not holding my breath waiting for the Orioles to turn in an A+ offseason but this is what it would look like. It’s obviously asking for a lot but I think with how much room the Orioles have to grow their payroll they could do all of this and still not quite touch 200 million. 

Honestly I don’t know if I trust myself to act normal if the Orioles had an offseason this aggressive. I’d be on the r/Orioles subreddit aggressively downvoting any anti Elias comments, I’d be on instagram commenting #WalkwithElias under non baseball related posts and I’d probably get flagged as a spam account on Bluesky for posting “We’re so back” every 20 minutes. 

A 

Outlook: Compete for Division championship. Favorites to win a playoff series.

Requirements

1 TOR starting pitcher

1+ middle of the rotation starting pitcher

2+ Proven backend bullpen arms

1 Veteran everyday starting level bat

1 Right handed centerfielder 

Sample

Sign: Dylan Cease (5/155)

Trade for: Nick Lodolo 

Sign: Robert Suarez (3/48)

Trade for: Jojo Romero

Sign: Geno Suarez (2/50)

Trade for: Jake Meyers

You’ll notice I used completely different players than the last sample. That’s because I don’t have THAT strong of a preference who the Orioles get to fill these holes as long they get filled. Get who you can get at the best price and we’ll work it out from there.

This is still a lofty goal for the Orioles but it feels more realistic. In this iteration of the offseason they only have to hand out one 9 figure deal. It’s not the A+ offseason but I’d have no complaints if this is what the Orioles did. It would also show me that they are capable of actually making a splash in free agency. Right now it wouldn’t be crazy to say that this front office doesn’t know how to negotiate multi year free agent contracts. So just knowing they CAN do it would be nice.

B+ 

Outlook: Compete for the division. Could win a wild card series.

Requirements

1 TOR Starting pitcher 

2+ Proven Bullpen arms 

1 veteran bench bat 

1 right handed 4th outfielder

Sample 

Trade for: Joe Ryan 

Sign: Raisel Iglesias (2/24)

Sign: Tyler Rogers (2/22)

Sign Amed Rosario (1/5 (this is my own best guess))

Trade for (or sign if he’s non tendered by the time this comes out): Jose Siri 

Acquiring a top of the rotation starter is so important that even if they do very little else besides get that guy I would still consider it a pretty successful offseason. So the B+ tier represents the lowest grade you could get while acquiring a top of the rotation guy. I wouldn’t blame you if when you see the B tier you actually like that better which is weird but that’s just how it shook out.

You may notice that the 2+ back end relievers part of the grade is holding pretty steady. That’s because with the current state of the Orioles bullpen I don’t view getting multiple solid relievers as an optional part of the offseason. Part of the math for making getting 2+ relievers a load bearing part of the offseason is how doable it is. I obviously think it is super important the Orioles get a legit starting pitcher but I know that those kinds of guys are hard to acquire. There are so many solid bullpen arms available via trade and free agency that you’d have to be asleep at the wheel not to finish the offseason having brought home a few of them. 

They’re off a decent start with the Andrew Kittredge trade but right now he’s the best arm in the pen and that just won’t do.

B 

Outlook: Could make the playoffs as a wild card. Could win a wild card series.

Requirements

2+ Middle of the rotation starting pitchers 

2+ Proven Backend Relievers 

1 Solid starting level bat 

1 right handed centerfielder 

Sample

Trade for: Bryce Miller

Sign: Zach Eflin (1/17 (this one is via Tim Britton of the Athletic))

Trade for: Bryan Abreu

Sign: Seranthony Dominguez (2/17(also Tim Britton))

Sign: Gleyber Torres (3/54)

Trade for: Luis Robert

So this offseason lacks the punch of getting a number 1 or 2 starter. Not getting a top of the rotation arm would be frustrating and I would complain about it but getting some solid position player additions would help to soften the blow. This is the highest grade I could give the Orioles if they didn’t get a real top of the rotation guy.

With this offseason you’re basically betting on Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers being your top 2 arms and staying healthy and whichever middle of the rotation arms you get helping you get through the season. I will say with this offseason it doesn’t rule out getting a top arm at the deadline although that’s been easier said than done recently. 

C+ 

Outlook: Would be fortunate to sneak into the playoffs. Would likely lose their first series.

Requirements

2+ Middle of the rotation starting pitchers 

2+ Proven Backend bullpen arms 

1 bench bat 

1 right handed 4th outfielder 

Sample

Trade for: Mitch Keller

Sign: Lucas Giolito (2/28)

Sign: Ryan Helsley (2/24)

Trade for: Dennis Santana 

Sign: Rob Refsnyder (1/5 (my best guess lol))

Trade for: Jacob Young

Now we’re getting to pretty uninspiring territory. Getting multiple middle of the rotation arms would still be an upgrade over what the Orioles currently have and would help avoid a year like last year where they started the season with a rotation mostly made up of #5 starters. 

This is the highest grade I would give to an Orioles offseason that ends with me feeling like they’re going to miss the playoffs again. I think they would be better than they were in 2025 and if some things go right for them could sneak in as a near .500 wild card so that explains the passing grade but this kind of offseason just would be very disappointing. 

C

Outlook: Could be .500. Would certainly miss the playoffs.

Requirements

1 Middle of the rotation starter 

1 Back of the rotation starter

2+ Proven bullpen arms 

1 right handed 4th outfielder

Sample

Trade for: Bailey Ober

Sign: Chris Bassitt (1/17)

Sign: Emilio Pagan (1/9)

Sign: Kyle Finnegan (1/10)

Sign: Lane Thomas (1/4 (again my best guess nobody is projecting Lane Thomas numbers)

This would not be a good offseason. The sample probably makes this look worse than it is because of all the one year deals but remember the sample is not who it has to be. Anyone who I’ve categorized as “proven bullpen arm” could be in the slot so if you wanted to swap out Finnegan for Suarez or someone more fun you could and I would still give this offseason a C. 

With this offseason I think the 2026 Orioles would be about as good as the 2025 Orioles and with some better health luck they could get back to .500 but in most scenarios we’re talking about missing the playoffs by a good margin. 

D

Outlook: 2025 again

Requirements

1 Middle of the rotation starter 

1 Proven bullpen arm 

1 Interesting bullpen arm 

1 4th outfielder 

1 Bench player

Sample 

Trade for: Luis Severino

Sign: Luke Weaver (1/9)

Trade for: Colin Holderman

Sign: Mike Yastrzemski (1/11) 

Sign: Jose Iglesias (1/3)

We’re getting into disaster territory here. I would hope that Mike Elias’s seat is sufficiently hot that an offseason like this isn’t really possible but David Rubenstein can’t stop telling everyone how awesome he thinks Mike Elias is so maybe that seat is as cool as ice and if that’s the case and Elias doesn’t like how expensive the good pitchers and hitters are either in trades or in free agency we could get a D level offseason. 

F

Outlook: Could potentially get the number 1 pick

Requirements

1 Backend of the Rotation starter 

2 interesting bullpen arms 

1+ Bench players

Sample 

Sign: Zack Litell (2/20)

Trade for: Clayton Beeter

Trade for: Reid Detmers 

Sign: Tommy Pham (1/5)

Genuine nightmare fuel, this just can’t happen. I don’t think it will happen mostly because it can’t happen. It just can’t.