Even if I haven’t understood every move they’ve made so far I have enjoyed this Orioles offseason. After years of being intensely risk averse Mike Elias has suddenly adopted a real “you only live once” mentality and one by one he’s checking things off his wishlist with much less reserve for the cost of those transactions than we’ve come to expect.
What I have enjoyed most is that the front office has clearly identified players that they think will improve the team and then done what needed to be done to acquire them. That may sound really obvious but in the past this front office has been too willing to walk away from a trade or free agency negotiation if they felt like they were overpaying.
Being willing to walk away is an important part of negotiating, but if you walk away from every deal worth doing that’s how you end up with the 2025 Orioles. With every move the front office makes it becomes more and more clear that they are on a mission to not be the 2025 Orioles.
Their latest acquisition was perhaps their most controversial to date and that’s saying something after the Grayson Rodriguez trade. So for today’s blog we’re going to dive into yesterday’s Shane Baz trade. Is he good? Did they overpay? There’s a lot to discuss.
Was this a bad trade?
In the wake of a trade everyone has a reaction. From the highest paid MLB analysts to the most casual fan, everyone looks at the Passan’s post and in an instant their brain starts working on answering a series of questions.
Is this good?
Who won this trade?
Would I have done this trade?
I was a little bit delayed getting the news so by the time I was hearing about the trade a lot of reactions were already being shared. Although you could find people in favor of the trade it seemed like the consensus opinion, especially outside of Orioles fans, was that they had drastically overpaid.
It’s pretty easy to see how someone could arrive at that conclusion. You see the list of names the Orioles are sending out and even if you aren’t locked in on prospects and farm system rankings it’s a lot of names and MLB helps you out by telling you how they rank them. Then you click over to Shane Baz’s baseball reference page and you look at the most popular pitching stat ERA and you see a number in the HIGH 4s!!
At a glance it’s an incredibly unbalanced trade.
You might be expecting me to say “but when you look at the numbers the Orioles come out ahead” but I’m not going to say that. I think when you do the math of what each prospect is worth and how many prospects you gave up it is going to be hard for the Orioles to come out ahead in that equation. There are plenty of very smart people who are looking at this trade as a big L for the O’s and they might be right.
Many of the Pro-Orioles reactions have been along the lines “I don’t care at all about prospects” and while I partially agree with that sentiment I don’t think it is necessary to act like these prospects weren’t valuable assets and that losing them doesn’t impact the team.
So does that mean I don’t like this trade?
No. I do like this trade and let me tell you why.
The first reason I like this trade is that if you take the names out of the deal I believe that philosophically these are the exact kinds of moves the O’s should be making.
The purpose of a farm system is to make your major league team better. You do that by either graduating prospects onto your major league team or by trading them for players that will help the major league team.
When you look at the Orioles roster of position players they have talented players that they like under control for the next 3-5 years at almost every position.
C: Adley Rutschman – 2 years of control
1B: Pete Alonso – 5 years of control
2B: Jackson Holliday – 5 years of control
SS: Gunnar Henderson – 3 years of control
3B: Jordan Westburg – 4 years of control
LF: Taylor Ward – 1 year of control (Also Tyler O’Neill for 2 years of control)
CF: Colton Cowser – 4 years of control
RF: Dylan Beavers – 6 years of control
DH: Samuel Basallo – 9 years of control
So without doing a thing 80% of the Orioles’ position players are under control for the next 3 seasons. You look at the bullpen and the rotation and it’s just not the same story. What I take from this information is that the primary purpose of the Orioles farm system for the next 3 years should be to bolster the pitching staff around this core of young players.
That’s not even a novel or new discovery on my part. The Orioles basically made it their stated strategy when they went 7 straight drafts not taking a pitcher in the first three rounds. Draft the hitting and trade for the pitching was always the plan.
Which is why philosophically this is the right kind of move. Trading a handful of prospects that likely weren’t going to meaningfully contribute to the Orioles contending in the next 2-3 years for a starting pitcher who you’ll have on a cost controlled contract for the next 3 years is absolutely the right idea. They should be looking to make another move like this again this offseason and maybe again at the deadline.
I’m not advocating for the Orioles to mortgage their entire future for the next 3 years but when you see a window like what’s in front of them right now, where they have a lot of talent on the roster that they won’t be able to afford to retain for forever, they should be willing to push in more chips than if they just had a generic pretty good team.
Does trading 4 prospects and a draft pick for a starter that isn’t a star make sense for most teams? Probably not. Does it make sense for the Orioles? In this case I’d say yes.
Why Shane Baz?
Now we’ve covered why I like the idea of the trade. Let’s look at the players actually included in the deal starting with the newest Baltimore Oriole Shane Baz.
I’ve seen a lot of people looking at Baz’s career stats and saying he’s a 4 or a 5 starter. While his career 4.25 ERA would suggest that to be an accurate statement there is a big difference between Shane Baz and your average back of the rotation starter who is just there to eat some innings and help you get through a season.
I don’t think the Orioles traded for him because they thought they were getting 3 years of cost controlled Kyle Gibson level performance. This is more than just a move for some cost controlled innings, they are taking a swing on Shane Baz’s potential and if they connect then Baz has the potential to be someone they can feel good about putting on the mound in a playoff game.
Let’s take a look
2025 was Baz’s first fully healthy season and as I already mentioned the line on the year isn’t inspiring.
IP: 166.1 | ERA: 4.87 | FIP: 4.37 | K/9: 9.52 | BB/9: 3.46 | HR/9: 1.41
If you dive a little deeper though you’ll find some comforting statistics.
The most obvious to me was Baz’s dramatic home and away splits this year. One of Baz’s flaws is that he does give up homers and that flaw was exacerbated by having his home ball park be the Yankees spring training facility and having the warm Florida summer air guide would be warning track flyouts over the fence.
Here are some of his relevant home road splits.
ERA: Home: 5.90 – Away: 3.86
HR: Home: 18 – Away: 8
AVG: Home: .271 – Away: .227
SLG: Home: .489 – Away: .373
HR/9: Home: 1.97 – Away: 0.86
FIP: Home: 4.96 – Away: 3.79
xFIP: Home: 3.89 – Away: 3.87
I think the takeaway is fairly simple: he was getting killed at home. I included the FIP and xFIP at end there so you could see he was pretty much the same pitcher both home and away and the environment created a 2 run difference in his ERA.
Finding an explanation for his elevated ERA is nice but this offseason we’ve seen multiple pitchers with poor ERAs land massive contracts. Dylan Cease got 7 years 210 million dollars coming off a season with a 4.55 ERA. Devin Williams got 3 years 51 million after a season where he lost his closing role and put up a 4.79 ERA.
It has become increasingly clear that front offices do not care about ERA. They care about stuff. They are choosing who to value based on whether or not they have pitches that miss bats. You can argue about whether or not they should be valuing things like pitch data or expected stats as much as they do but that’s not going to change that fact.
Stuff is an area where Shane Baz excels. By numbers like ERA and FIP Baz was one of the 10 worst qualified starters in the league last season. By Stuff+ he ranked 11th, nestled in between Dylan Cease and Hunter Brown. His location+ leaves something to be desired but in the aggregate metric pitching+ he still comes out will above average and among the best in the league.
On a pitch by pitch basis Baz has 4 pitches that Stuff+ rates as above average. The standout being his knuckle curve that scored a 125 Stuff+ number which is elite. It’s not like that’s a gimmick pitch he only messes around with sometimes he threw it 26% of the time making it his second most used pitch.
So if the stuff is so good why hasn’t he been better. Even if you factor out his home ballpark his 3.86 road ERA doesn’t scream top 10 pitcher in baseball.
Well there’s more to pitching than just ripping nasty stuff in the general direction of home plate. As his location+ numbers would suggest Baz does not have great command.
It doesn’t really matter if Stuff+ thinks you have awesome pitches if you can’t land them for strikes or if you’re grooving those awesome pitches into the dead center of the strike zone.
Baz’s command isn’t so bad that it will impact his ability to remain a starter but if there is no step forward over then next few years then he will remain the kind of pitcher who’s ERA can’t ever seem to catch up to the expected stats and the Orioles will get the back of the rotation starter type production that some people are already bemoaning.
Baz’s age is another reason why I like this trade. He is still young enough that it’s fair to expect him to improve over the next few seasons. When you trade with the Rays there is sometimes a feeling that you might get fleeced because the Rays are known for their player development so if they’re giving up on someone it must mean they feel like they can’t get anything better out of him. If the mighty Rays player development system can’t fix a guy then who can??
It’s a semi reasonable take but the Rays are not immune to giving up on project prospects who later develop into good pitchers. They bailed on Joe Ryan and Christopher Sanchez and what they got in return for those players is nothing to be proud of.
Also I don’t think the Rays were looking to trade Baz this offseason. Based on Elias’ and Neander’s comments post trade it seems the Orioles targeted Baz and offered the Rays so much they felt that had to accept. So it doesn’t appear the Rays are trying to stick us with a lemon.
To me this reads as a situation where the Orioles front office looked around the league and identified multiple pitchers under team control who they liked. The they budgeted out a prospect package they were willing to trade for those pitchers and went after them.
The O’s were rumored to be in talks with the Marlins about Edward Cabrera who is similar to Baz in the the various stuff metrics. In fact they have the exact same pitching+ score of 107. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they were most closely rumored to 2 very similarly talented but flawed pitchers who are both under team control for 3 more seasons. This is clearly a profile they were after to help fill out the rotation and the package they gave up was a calculated risk.
Would people have been so critical of the move if they had gotten Edward Cabrera and his 3.53 ERA instead of Baz? I listened to one show where they criticized the trade by saying “If you have included Coby Mayo in this trade you could have gotten someone like Edward Cabrera!”
My argument would be that they did get someone like Edward Cabrera and now they still have Coby Mayo as ammunition to get something else. They could even still go get Edward Cabrera. I wouldn’t mind that at all.
The Grayson Rodriguez allegations
One of the most common criticisms of this trade was that the Orioles shipped out Grayson Rodriguez for being injury prone and brought in Baz who also has a substantial injury history.
I’m not going to all of the sudden pretend to like the Grayson Rodriguez trade to defend this trade. I still think that was a strange move. If it turns out Rodriguez never pitches again then it will make a lot of sense but I think Rodriguez will again this year.
But my retort to anyone bringing up Grayson Rodriguez is twofold.
One, I don’t think the two moves are related. The Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward trade to my eye is a result of the Orioles really wanting Taylor Ward and valuing Ward more than Rodriguez. I don’t think that’s a correct valuation but that appears to be the math that was done.
Two, Baz’s injury situation is very different from G-Rod’s. Yes they both have the injury prone tag but the trajectory of their injury situations are almost inversed. Baz had elbow issues in 2022 which resulted in multiple surgries that kept him out until mid 2024. Since then he hasn’t missed a start. Rodriguez hasn’t pitched in the Major Leagues since July of 2024. That’s a long time and I think the injuries he’s been dealing with are much more relevant to him currently than the injuries Baz dealt with years ago are to him today.
I understand why people’s thoughts turned to Grayson when this trade happened and I think it is unfortunate the main result of him being brought up is that his old fanbase is just dunking on him for not staying healthy.
To wrap up my Baz thoughts I’ll say that I think that Orioles fans should be excited that the team has acquired someone young and talented. Baz’s best years as a starter are ahead of him and the Orioles have him for the next 3 seasons. If he doesn’t progress at all (which would be pretty disappointing for a 26 year old) then they’ve got a solid back of the rotation guy and if he takes a step forward they’ve got a playoff starter for cheap that lines up with the rest of Gunnar Henderson’s contract.
The package
I don’t want to spend too much time on the outgoing prospects but I do want to talk about why this is being referred to as an overpay.
The first thing I want to say about the overpay comments is that they are fair because this was a lot to give up but it is also worth acknowledging that when it comes to trading for young controllable starting pitching, overpaying is part of the game. Especially if the team holding the player is fine just keeping them and I believe Rays would have been totally comfortable holding onto Shane Baz going into next season.
We’ll see what other young controllable arms like Mackenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera and maybe Joe Ryan go for if they’re traded this offseason. Maybe they’ll go for less and it’ll be time to point and laugh at the Orioles for getting fleeced but I imagine the return for those players will include similarly large packages of prospects or a smaller package of much more highly touted prospects.
Andrew Friedman has his famous quote (seriously he should get royalties for everytime a blog or a podcast references it) about being reasonable in free agency not getting you any free agents, well there is a similar vibe to trading prospects for win now players.
I think it is also worth mentioning that in 2025 the Orioles had a big time influx of talent into their farm system. They had by far the most day 1 draft picks, they had a productive international signing class and their deadline selloff netted them double digit new prospects.
Speaking of the trade deadline now that the 2025 season is over I think it is fair to say that the Orioles dominated their trade partners at the deadline. So if you feel like they’re losing value in their farm system in some trades this offseason keep in mind that they are WAY UP in trade value on the year.
So when it comes to prospects they’ve got room to work. It’s not like this was their last gasp and now the cupboards are bare.
So let’s look really quickly at who is out the door.
Michael Forret – SP – AA – Rays #7
Forret is probably the part of this package that hurts the most. Unlike the other prospects included in the deal his age and position would have made him a fit on the Orioles major league roster in the near future. He was a former 14th round pick and a major development success story for the O’s.
You can never have too much pitching but at least the Orioles do have a solid group of AA and AAA starters that can’t all fit on a major league rotation so in that aspect it’s ok if they pick a few favorites to bet on and trade from a relatively new position of strength.
Slater De Brun – OF – RCL – Rays #8
De Brunwas an overslot first round pick that the Orioles swiped out of the hands of Vanderbilt. He’s young and toolsy and projects to one day be a plus bat in centerfield.
That being said, projection is a ways away. De Brun is 18 and hasn’t even debuted in the minor leagues yet. He’s young enough that he won’t be debuting until after this current Orioles window is at it’s close so it makes sense to move him but you have to acknowledge that there is a possibility that 5 years from now the O’s are at the beginning of a rebuild and De Brun is one of the top prospects in baseball.
Caden Bodine – C – A – Rays #13
Another 2025 first round pick. Bodine’s skillset as a great defensive catcher gives him a high floor as a prospect and almost guarantees he will eventually make his way to the big leagues. There’s not a superstar ceiling to dream on but if Adley eventually leaves in free agency Bodine would have been a nice defensive pairing with Basallo. If Adley ends up staying then I’m not sure where Bodine would have ever played for the O’s so he makes sense as someone that can be moved.
Austin Overn – OF – AA – Rays #22
Overn is a really fun prospect. He’s got elite speed and plays great defense. His fit on the Orioles was always going to be tricky because they have an even faster and better defender just ahead of him in the system and you don’t really need 2n of those guys especially if neither of them can really hit.
I don’t think any one of these guys makes this a bad deal but having to include all of them stings.
Where do the Orioles go from here?
I’ve been pretty positive about the Baz acquisition so far in this blog but I want to use the last section here to talk about how Shane Baz cannot be the best pitcher that the Orioles acquire this offseason.
With the Baz edition the Orioles rotation looks like this:
Bradish
Rogers
Baz
Kremer
Povich
You look around the American League East and this is just not going to cut it. Especially when you just look at each team’s top 3.
Yankees
Cole
Freid
Rodon
Red Sox
Crochet
Gray
Bello
Blue Jays
Cease
Gauseman
Beiber
The Orioles have already done a lot this offseason but it will be a waste of money and resources if they don’t do enough to actually compete. What they need to add to get themselves on the level with the teams in their division is a true top of the rotation starter.
Not someone who could be a top of the rotation starter, someone who is. In free agency the only options I see left are Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Tatsuya Imai. A lot of teams want those players so the cost could easily get out of hand. If the Orioles can’t win the bidding war there then I’d expect them to turn to the trade market and try to dislodge Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez from the Twins or look to get Freddy Peralta as a rental.
As far as ammunition to get one of those trades done they still have Coby Mayo whose value is enigmatic but should be enough to get a conversation started. On the major league roster besides Mayo they also have Povich who they should be looking to upgrade out of the rotation and if that’s the case he would have more value to a rebuilding team than the Orioles.
On the farm I obviously wouldn’t trade Basallo or Beavers but after them I’d be pretty open for business when it comes to acquiring and top of the rotation arm. I like Aloy because he’s cool and Esteban Meija and Nate Goerge seem to have the juice to be fast risers so even if you’re ok trading them you might be better off doing it down the line after they’ve risen a bit more.
I also wouldn’t want to trade Trey Gibson on the eve of his big league debut but if it came down to it for someone like Ryan or Peralta I don’t think you want to get too cute and fumble the opportunity over Gibson. I could probably be convinced.
Hopefully whatever the Orioles are going to do next they do it quickly so that I can keep my phone off during the holidays.
The Dishwasher 
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